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Evolutionary computational approach in TAR model estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Pizzi

    () (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Francesca Parpinel

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

Abstract

The well-known SETAR model introduced by Tong belongs to the wide class of TAR models that may be specified in several different ways. Here we propose to consider the delay parameter as endogenous, that is we make it to depend on both the past value and the specific past regime of the series. In particular we consider a system that switches between two regimes, each of which is a linear autoregressive of order p, with respect of the value assumed by a delayed self--variable compared with an asymmetric threshold; the peculiarity is that the switching rule also depends on the regime in which the system lies at time t-d. In this work we consider two identification procedures: the first one follows the classical estimation for SETAR models, the second one proposes to estimate this model using the Particle Swarm Optimization technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Pizzi & Francesca Parpinel, 2011. "Evolutionary computational approach in TAR model estimation," Working Papers 2011_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2011_26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.
    2. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    3. Gonzalo, Jesus & Wolf, Michael, 2005. "Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 201-224, August.
    4. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos K. Protopapas, 2010. "Multi-regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series," Working Papers 026, COMISEF.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Parameter Estimation; Threshold Autoregressive Models; Particle Swarm Optimization.;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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