Unobserved Component Model for Forecasting Polish Inflation
This paper aims to use the local level models with GARCH and SV errors to predict Polish inflation. The series to be forecast, measured monthly, is consumer price index (CPI) in Poland during 1992-2008. We selected three forecasting models i.e. LL-GARCH(1,1) with Normal or Student errors and LL-SV. A simple AR(2)-SV model is used as a benchmark to assess the accuracy of prediction. The presented results indicate, that there is no clear advantage of LL models in forecasting Polish inflation over standard AR(2)-SV model, although all the models give satisfactory results.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008.
"Phillips curve inflation forecasts,"
Conference Series ; [Proceedings],
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grassi Stefano & Proietti Tommaso, 2010. "Has the Volatility of U.S. Inflation Changed and How?," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, September.
- Grassi, Stefano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Has the Volatility of U.S. Inflation Changed and How?," MPRA Paper 11453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, April.
- Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, April.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "SEASONALDLM: RATS procedure to create the matrices for the seasonal component of a DLM," Statistical Software Components RTS00251, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Are apparent findings of nonlinearity due to structural instability in economic time series?," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-38.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Are apparent findings of nonlinearity due to structural instability in economic time series?," Staff Reports 59, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:10:y:2010:p:121-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Miroslawa Buczynska)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.