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Forecasting with the Standardized Self-Perturbed Kalman Filter

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  • Stefano Grassi

    () (Univeristy of Kent and CREATES)

  • Nima Nonejad

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Paolo Santucci de Magistris

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

We propose and study the finite-sample properties of a modified version of the self-perturbed Kalman filter of Park and Jun (1992) for the on-line estimation of models subject to parameter instability. The perturbation term in the updating equation of the state covariance matrix is now weighted by the estimate of the measurement error variance. This avoids the calibration of a design parameter as the perturbation term is scaled by the level of uncertainty in the data. It is shown by Monte Carlo simulations that this perturbation method is associated with a good tracking of the dynamics of the parameters compared to other on-line, classical and Bayesian methods. The standardized self-perturbed Kalman filter is adopted to forecast the equity premium on the S&P500 index under several model specifications, and to investigate to what extent and how realized variance can be exploited to predict excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Grassi & Nima Nonejad & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2014. "Forecasting with the Standardized Self-Perturbed Kalman Filter," CREATES Research Papers 2014-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2014-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Buncic, Daniel & Gisler, Katja I.M., 2016. "Global equity market volatility spillovers: A broader role for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1317-1339.
    2. Wang, Yudong & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "Forecasting realized volatility in a changing world: A dynamic model averaging approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 136-149.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TVP models; Self-Perturbed Kalman Filter; Forecasting; Equity Premium; Realized Variance;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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