IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Dollar Hegemony and China's Economy

  • Kai Liu
Registered author(s):

    This paper models the US dollar as a global currency and focuses on the effects of US money supply shock upon China's economy. The special roles of US dollar as a global currency and the special institutional arrangements of China are investigated. Given a positive US money supply shock, both the inflation and real GDP of China will be below their steady state levels in the medium term; while for the US there is no inflation pressure. Welfare calculation shows that a positive 10% US money supply shock will result in a positive 1.25% welfare gain for China, a positive 0.06% welfare gain for US, but a 0.21% welfare loss for the rest of the world. Given that the US dollar's hegemony is not weakened, the regime with liberalized capital accounts and an exchange rate peg to the US dollar for China is best for the Chinese households under the US money supply shock. However, when the US dollar is no longer the global reserve currency but instead a supranational reserve currency replaces it, then for China this regime is the worst kind of reform, no matter whether or not the dollar standard in international trade is maintained.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1410.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1410.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 04 Jun 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1410
    Note: kl363
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2004. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," DELTA Working Papers 2004-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    2. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2010. "Home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael & Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2011. "Stock market wealth effects in an estimated DSGE model for Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 316-334, January.
    8. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
    9. Linda S. Goldberg & Cedric Tille, 2005. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Staff Reports 200, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708pipbp is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gabriele Galati & Philip D. Wooldridge, 2006. "The euro as a reserve currency: a challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar?," BIS Working Papers 218, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Yannick Kalantzis & Kenza Benhima & Philippe Bacchetta, 2012. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal?," 2012 Meeting Papers 448, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2008. "Macroeconomic interdependence and the international role of the dollar," Staff Reports 316, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Benjamin Carton, 2011. "The Impossible Trinity Revised: An Application to China," Working Papers 2011-27, CEPII research center.
    17. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
    18. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    19. Farrell, Mike, 1980. "International Impact of U.S. Money Supply: The Case of Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 433-43, June.
    20. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2002. "Exchange rate systems and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 571-599, April.
    21. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    22. Chen, Qianying & Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2012. "Market and non-market monetary policy tools in a calibrated DSGE model for mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    23. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, 2012. "Dealing with the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Mehrotra, Aaron & Nuutilainen, Riikka & Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2011. "Changing economic structures and impacts of shocks : evidence from a DSGE for China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    25. Warren Bailey, 1989. "The Effect of U.S. Money Supply Announcements on Canadian Stock, Bond, and Currency Prices," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 607-18, August.
    26. Michael B. Devereux & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2010. "Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 521-550, 06.
    27. Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    28. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Globalization without Global Money: The Double Role of the Dollar as National Currency and World Currency," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 22(3), pages 365-395, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.