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Jobless Recoveries: Stagnation Or Structural Change?

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  • John D. Burger
  • Jeremy S. Schwartz

Abstract

Within the existing literature a number of competing explanations for jobless recoveries have emerged. On the one hand there is evidence of dynamic structural change including offshoring/globalization and technological advances that are resulting in the loss of middle‐skill (routine) employment. Other studies emphasize a less dynamic economy with slower growth, reduced labor market fluidity, a decline in startup activity, and even economic stagnation. This study exploits variation among U.S. states to assess the degree that stagnation and/or important structural changes in the economy contribute to the recent phenomenon of jobless recoveries. We find support for both the stagnation and structural change theories of jobless recoveries. On the stagnation side, we find evidence that lower startup rates are a significant predictor of jobless recoveries. We also find evidence that links dynamic structural change to the jobless recovery phenomenon. More specifically states experiencing a long‐run downward trend in the share of routine employment are more likely to experience a jobless recovery. Our results are consistent with the polarization theory where routine‐replacing technological advances permanently reduce demand for middle‐skill labor, thus contributing to jobless recoveries. (JEL E32, E24)

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  • John D. Burger & Jeremy S. Schwartz, 2018. "Jobless Recoveries: Stagnation Or Structural Change?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 709-723, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:56:y:2018:i:2:p:709-723
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12535
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    2. Didier, Nicolas, 2024. "Turning fragments into a lens: Technological change, industrial revolutions, and labor," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Dustin Chambers & Patrick A. McLaughlin & Tyler Richards, 2022. "Regulation, entrepreneurship, and firm size," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 108-134, April.
    4. Marlon R. Tracey & Solomon W. Polachek, 2020. "Heterogeneous Layoff Effects of the US Short‐Time Compensation Program," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 34(4), pages 399-426, December.
    5. Meredith M. Paker, 2020. "The Jobless Recovery After the 1980-1981 UK Recession," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _182, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Gaggl, Paul & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2020. "The cyclical component of labor market polarization and jobless recoveries in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 334-347.
    7. Mindaugas Butkus & Laura Dargenytė-Kacilevičienė & Kristina Matuzevičiūtė & Dovilė Ruplienė & Janina Šeputienė, 2024. "When and for Whom Does Growth Becomes Jobless?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Filippos Petroulakis, 2023. "Task Content and Job Losses in the Great Lockdown," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(3), pages 586-613, May.
    9. Ertürk, Korkut Alp & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2018. "The changing dynamics of short-run output adjustment," MPRA Paper 87409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    11. Paker, Meredith M., 2023. "The jobless recovery after the 1980–1981 British recession," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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