IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/87409.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The changing dynamics of short-run output adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Ertürk, Korkut Alp
  • Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan

Abstract

Much of macroeconomic theorizing rests on assumptions that define the short-run output adjustment of a mass-production economy. The demand effect of investment on output, assumed much faster than its supply effect, works through employment expanding pari passu with changes in capacity utilization while productivity remains constant. Using linear Structural VAR and Time-Varying Parameter Structural VAR models, we document important changes in the short-run output adjustment in the USA. The link between changes in employment, capacity utilization and investment has weakened, while productivity became more responsive following demand shifts caused by investment since the early 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Ertürk, Korkut Alp & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2018. "The changing dynamics of short-run output adjustment," MPRA Paper 87409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87409
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/87409/1/MPRA_paper_87409.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 2010. "Okun's Law and Productivity Innovations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 11-15, May.
    4. Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 399-418.
    5. Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 1984. "Was the Transition from the Artisanal Shop to the Factory Associated with Gains in Efficiency?: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing Censuses of 1820 and 1850," UCLA Economics Working Papers 300, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Deepankar Basu & Duncan K. Foley, 2013. "Dynamics of output and employment in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(5), pages 1077-1106.
    7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    8. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    9. Li-Hsueh Chen & Zhen Cui, 2017. "Jobless Recovery and Structural Change: A VAR Approach," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, June.
    10. Panovska, Irina B., 2017. "What Explains The Recent Jobless Recoveries?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 708-732, April.
    11. James DeNicco & Christopher A. Laincz, 2018. "Jobless Recovery: A Time Series Look at the United States," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(1), pages 3-25, March.
    12. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    13. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    14. Sokoloff, Kenneth L., 1984. "Was the transition from the artisanal shop to the nonmechanized factory associated with gains in efficiency?: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing censuses of 1820 and 1850," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 351-382, October.
    15. Edward J. Nell & Thomas F. Phillips, 1995. "Transformational Growth and the Business Cycle," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 125-146, Spring.
    16. Bob Jessop, 2002. "Critical forum," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 249-250, April.
    17. John D. Burger & Jeremy S. Schwartz, 2018. "Jobless Recoveries: Stagnation Or Structural Change?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 709-723, April.
    18. Eric Sims & Michael Jason Pries, 2011. "Reallocation and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations," 2011 Meeting Papers 1258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Harald Hagemann & Heinz D. Kurz (ed.), 1998. "Political Economics in Retrospect," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 761.
    20. David Berger, 2012. "Countercyclical Restructuring and Jobless Recoveries," 2012 Meeting Papers 1179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Kevin x.d. Huang & Jie Chen & Zhe Li & Jianfei Sun, 2014. "Financial Conditions and Slow Recoveries," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 14-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    3. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    4. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Jouchi Nakajima, 2021. "Steady‐state growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 40-52, April.
    5. Ozcan Ceylan, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness among Sovereign CDS Premia," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 33-47, June.
    6. Liu, Min & Guo, Tongji & Ping, Weiying & Luo, Liangqing, 2023. "Sustainability and stability: Will ESG investment reduce the return and volatility spillover effects across the Chinese financial market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2014. "Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects," MPRA Paper 53607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Are European natural gas markets connected? A time-varying spillovers analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Gaggl, Paul & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2020. "The cyclical component of labor market polarization and jobless recoveries in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 334-347.
    11. Jochen Hartwig, 2014. "Testing Okun’s law with Swiss industry data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(29), pages 3581-3590, October.
    12. Carlos Carrillo‐Tudela & Ludo Visschers, 2023. "Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation Over the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 1119-1153, May.
    13. Elva Bova & Christina Kolerus & Sampawende Tapsoba, 2015. "A fiscal job? An analysis of fiscal policy and the labor market," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Elhorst, J. Paul & Emili, Silvia, 2022. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Szafranek, Karol & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2023. "How immune is the connectedness of European natural gas markets to exceptional shocks?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    16. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    17. Julio-Román, Juan Manuel & Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy Alejandro, 2019. "The Exchange Rate and Oil Prices in Colombia: A High Frequency Analysis," Working papers 22, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    18. Elroukh, Ahmed W. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Panovska, Irina, 2020. "A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Julio-Román, Juan Manuel, 2019. "Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Time-Varying Vector Auto-Regression with Residual Stochastic Volatility Approach," Working papers 21, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    20. Christophe Andre & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Time-Varying Spillovers between Housing Sentiment and Housing Market in the United States," Working Papers 202091, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    changes in short-run output adjustment; capacity utilization; employment; mass-production economy; post-Fordism.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.