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Modelling of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations

Author

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  • Hannu Koskinen

    (School of Business and Economics, University of Jyväskylä, Finland)

Abstract

In this paper the multivariate cointegration technique coupled with a smooth nonlinear trend of time is applied to model the demand for money. Unmodelled gradual structural changes in the cointegration parameters affect the specification of the cointegration relations so that the number of cointegrating vectors found by linear methodology is smaller than suggested by the economic theory. Here the demand for broad money in Finland during 1980–1996 is analysed. It turns out that, if the cointegrated VAR model is extended with a suitable nonlinear deterministic trend of time related to the intercept term, then the missing cointegration relation between broad money and the scale variable is found and the cointegration space can then be identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Hannu Koskinen, 2004. "Modelling of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 63-72, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:17:y:2004:i:2:p:63-72
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katarina Juselius, 1998. "Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 455-481.
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    6. Changli He & Timo Terasvirta & Andres Gonzalez, 2009. "Testing Parameter Constancy in Stationary Vector Autoregressive Models Against Continuous Change," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 225-245.
    7. Saikkonen, Pentti, 2001. "Consistent Estimation In Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models With Nonlinear Time Trends In Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 296-326, April.
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    10. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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