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A time series-based approach for renewable energy modeling

Author

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  • Fatih Onur Hocaoglu
  • Fatih Karanfil

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Despite the growing literature on renewable energy sources, causal relationships between the variables that are selected as inputs of the models proposed in forecasting studies have not been investigated so far. In this paper, a novel approach to decide prediction input variables of wind and/or temperature forecasting models is suggested. This approach uses time series techniques; more specifically, Granger causality and impulse-response analyses between some meteorological variables. To conduct our study, wind speed, temperature and pressure data obtained from different regions of Turkey are employed. The results suggest that bidirectional causal relationships exist between these variables and that short-run dynamics differ with respect to location (inland versus coastal area). From this, it is concluded that renewable energy models must be built accordingly to improve prediction accuracy.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Onur Hocaoglu & Fatih Karanfil, 2013. "A time series-based approach for renewable energy modeling," Post-Print hal-01385896, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385896
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Rangel-Heras & César Angeles-Camacho & Erasmo Cadenas-Calderón & Rafael Campos-Amezcua, 2022. "Short-Term Forecasting of Energy Production for a Photovoltaic System Using a NARX-CVM Hybrid Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Nurcan Kilinc-Ata, 2018. "Assessing the Future of Renewable Energy Consumption for United Kingdom, Turkey and Nigeria," Foresight and STI Governance, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 62-77.
    3. Xiong, Yongkang & Zeng, Zhenfeng & Xin, Jianbo & Song, Guanhong & Xia, Yonghong & Xu, Zaide, 2023. "Renewable energy time series regulation strategy considering grid flexible load and N-1 faults," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    4. Fahri Seker & Murat Cetin, 2015. "The relationship between renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions in Turkey: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 2604535, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    5. Fatih Karanfil, 2017. "An empirical analysis of European football rivalries based on on-field performances," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 468-482, December.
    6. Eduardo Rangel & Erasmo Cadenas & Rafael Campos-Amezcua & Jorge L. Tena, 2020. "Enhanced Prediction of Solar Radiation Using NARX Models with Corrected Input Vectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, May.

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