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Nonlinear Models for Economic Forecasting Applications: An Evolutionary Discussion

Listed author(s):
  • Adrian Cantemir Calin

    ()

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Casa Academiei, Calea 13 Septembrie no.13, 5th district, Bucharest, 050711, Romania)

  • Tiberiu Diaconescu

    ()

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Casa Academiei, Calea 13 Septembrie no.13, 5th district, Bucharest, 050711, Romania)

  • Oana – Cristina Popovici

    ()

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Piața Romana no.6, 1st district, Bucharest, 010374, Romania)

This article follows the main contributions brought to the nonlinear modeling literature. We investigate and review a series of parametric initiatives, focusing on the evolution of TAR and ARCH – GARCH model families in econometric and forecasting applications.

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File URL: http://cmss.univnt.ro/wp-content/uploads/vol/split/vol_II_issue_1/CMSS_vol_II_issue_1_art.005.pdf
File Function: First version, 2014
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Article provided by "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences in its journal Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS).

Volume (Year): 2 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 42-47

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Handle: RePEc:ntu:ntcmss:vol2-iss1-14-042
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  2. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
  3. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
  4. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  5. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2005. "Non-linear GARCH models for highly persistent volatility," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 251-276, 07.
  6. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  7. Martin Martens & Paul Kofman & Ton C. F. Vorst, 1998. "A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
  8. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-141, March-Apr.
  9. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2004. "The performance of SETAR models: a regime conditional evaluation of point, interval and density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 305-320.
  10. González-Rivera Gloria, 1998. "Smooth-Transition GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, July.
  11. Fornari, Fabio & Mele, Antonio, 1997. "Sign- and Volatility-Switching ARCH Models: Theory and Applications to International Stock Markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 49-65, Jan.-Feb..
  12. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  13. Enrique Sentana, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
  14. Pfann, Gerard A. & Schotman, Peter C. & Tschernig, Rolf, 1996. "Nonlinear interest rate dynamics and implications for the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 149-176, September.
  15. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1997. "A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-179.
  16. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
  17. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
  18. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 279-303, April.
  19. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  20. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May.
  21. Pradeep K. Yadav & Peter F. Pope & Krishna Paudyal, 1994. "Threshold Autoregressive Modeling In Finance: The Price Differences Of Equivalent Assets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 205-221.
  22. Kim, Ki-ho, 2003. "Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-313.
  23. Maysami, Ramin Cooper & Koh, Tiong Sim, 2000. "A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-96, February.
  24. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
  25. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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