IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-16-00116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Natural interest rate in Brazil: further evidence frThe main objective of this study is to estimate the natural interest rate for Brazil using a parsimonious AR-trend-bound model proposed by Chan, Koop and Potter (2013). This model considers a time varying autoregressive process for the interest rate gap (difference between real interest rate and natural interest rate) and stochastic volatility (time-variant uncertainty). The interest rate gap measures the monetary policy stance. Furthermore, the unobserved latent states are limited, which can help to reduce the uncertainty regarding the estimation of these variables. This method presents plausible results for the Brazilian case. The average natural interest rate is around 5.41% p.a. The interest rate gap is positive until mid 2009, which indicates a restrictive policy for the period. Since then, the gap has had predominantly negative values, which indicates an expansionist policy. This result is consistent with the dynamics of the Brazilian economy.om an AR-trend-bound model

Author

Listed:
  • Andreza A Palma

    (Department of Economics, Federal University of São Carlos)

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreza A Palma, 2016. "Natural interest rate in Brazil: further evidence frThe main objective of this study is to estimate the natural interest rate for Brazil using a parsimonious AR-trend-bound model proposed by Chan, Koo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1306-1314.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2016/Volume36/EB-16-V36-I3-P129.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    2. Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Barcellos, Paulo, 2009. "The Natural Rate of Interested in Brazil Between 1999 and 2005," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(2), June.
    3. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 94-106, January.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Jeffery D. Amato, 2005. "The Role of the Natural Rate of Interest in Monetary Policy," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 729-755.
    7. Jeffery D. Amato, 2005. "The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 171, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Alessandra Ribeiro & Vladimir K. Teles, 2013. "Taxa Natural de Juros no Brasil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 14(1c), pages 733-750.
    9. Chan, Joshua & Strachan, Rodney, 2012. "Estimation in Non-Linear Non-Gaussian State Space Models with Precision-Based Methods," MPRA Paper 39360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Medeiros, Marcelo, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics in Brazil: The Case of a Small Open Economy," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    11. Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/243, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Axel A. Weber & Wolfgang Lemke & Andreas Worms, 2008. "How useful is the concept of the natural real rate of interest for monetary policy?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(1), pages 49-63, January.
    2. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Barcellos, Paulo, 2009. "The Natural Rate of Interested in Brazil Between 1999 and 2005," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(2), June.
    4. Paulo Chananeco F. de Barcellos Neto & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2006. "The Natural Rate Of Interest In Brazil Between 1999 And 2005," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 84, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Cúrdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2015. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-83.
    6. Kai D. Schmid, 2010. "Medium-run macrodynamics and the consensus view of stabilization policy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 322/2010, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    7. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2007. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(54), pages 44-89, June.
    8. Alberto Ronchi Neto & Osvaldo Candido, 2020. "Measuring the neutral real interest rate in Brazil: a semi-structural open economy framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 651-667, February.
    9. Roberto Tamborini, 2010. "Monetary Policy With Investment–Saving Imbalances," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 473-509, July.
    10. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    11. Trehan, Bharat & Wu, Tao, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1584-1609, May.
    12. Patrick Lünnemann & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2003. "Règle de Taylor: estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg," BCL working papers 9, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Hilde Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih, 2011. "Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 755-777, May.
    15. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    16. Mazali, Antonio Alberto & Divino, Jose Angelo, 2010. "Real Wage Rigidity and the New Phillips Curve: The Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    17. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Daniel DAIANU, 2017. "When Policies Fuel Economic Cycles," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 167-190, March.
    19. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Adolfo Sachsida & Marcio Ribeiro & Claudio Hamilton dos Santos, 2009. "A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1430, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-linear state space model; interest rate forecasting; natural interest rate; Bayesian methods; AR-trend-bound model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.