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The Natural Rate of Interested in Brazil Between 1999 and 2005

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  • Portugal, Marcelo Savino
  • Barcellos, Paulo

Abstract

The aim of the present study is to estimate the level of the natural rate of interest in Brazil after the implementation of the inflation targeting regime. Miranda and Muinhos (2003), Arida, Bacha and Lara-Resende (2005), Gonçalves, Holland and Spacov (2005) and Muinhos and Nakane (2006) investigated the major reasons for the persistently high levels of real interest rates in Brazil. The present study introduces three different estimates for the behavior of long-term interest rates in Brazil. First of all, the definition of the natural rate of interest is analyzed in a time perspective, highlighting the importance of this issue to the conduct of present-day Brazilian monetary policy. In a second moment, statistical filters are used for the ex ante and ex post real interest series, followed by the estimation of a dynamic Taylor rule, which allows obtaining the real interest rate implicit in the monetary policy decisions made by the Brazilian Central Bank after the implementation of the inflation targeting regime. These estimates are eventually compared with the natural rate of interest obtained from a simplified macroeconomic state-space model, as proposed by Laubach and Williams (2003). The results indicate that monetary policy decisions caused the level of the real interest rate to fluctuate around that of the natural rate of interest, showing that the Brazilian monetary authority assumed a policy-neutral stance in most of the analyzed period.

Suggested Citation

  • Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Barcellos, Paulo, 2009. "The Natural Rate of Interested in Brazil Between 1999 and 2005," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 63(2), June.
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:63:y:2009:i:2:a:1035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernando M. Gonçalves & Márcio Holland & Andrei D. Spacov, 2005. "Can Jurisdictional Uncertainty And Capital Controls Explain The High Level Of Real Interest Rates In Brazil? Evidence From Panel Data," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    3. Tejada, César A. O. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2002. "Credibility and Reputation: An Application of the External Circumstances Model for the Real Plan," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(4), October.
    4. Jeffery D. Amato, 2005. "The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 171, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 106-133 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target; An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 05/77, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
    9. Jeffery D. Amato, 2005. "The Role of the Natural Rate of Interest in Monetary Policy," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 51(4), pages 729-755.
    10. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Pedro Calhman de Miranda & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "A Taxa de Juros de Equilíbrio: uma Abordagem Múltipla," Working Papers Series 66, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilyas Siklar & Umit Yildiz & Sinan Cakan, 2016. "The Time - Varying Natural Rate of Interest and Its Fundamental Determinants: Time Series Evidence from Turkey," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 390-400, December.
    2. Andreza A Palma, 2016. "Natural interest rate in Brazil: further evidence frThe main objective of this study is to estimate the natural interest rate for Brazil using a parsimonious AR-trend-bound model proposed by Chan, Koo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, pages 1306-1314.

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