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House Price Comovements in the Eurozone Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Merikas
  • Anna Merika
  • Nikiforos Laopodis
  • Anna Triantafyllou

Abstract

The house price boom in major industrialized countries since the early 1990s has been unprecedented. Co-movement is a key feature of it and it has been attributed by scholars to synchronization of monetary policy, financial liberalization, integration of international financial markets, as well as global business cycle linkages. In this paper we focus on seven European countries, all members of the EMU, and ask the question if, the apparent co movement of the housing prices in the seven major euro zone economies implies convergence of their housing markets. Using monthly data from DSI Statistical Bases for 1990(1)-2009(4), we concentrate on the impact of the adoption of the common currency on real house prices movements. We conduct the analysis using country-specific macroeconomic variables and then extend it by adding foreign-specific macro variables to each country’s model. The empirical analysis includes cointegration analysis and VAR specifications. Our findings suggest that the movement of the housing prices of the euro zone countries apart from the well known fundamentals of GDP, interest rates and stock returns is also based on a number of idiosyncratic and structural factors like demographics, the tax system and government intervention which determine the duration and the strength of the housing cycles in each country. Furthermore, it seems that the degree of convergence underlying housing prices co movement is limited given the diversities in living standards, regulation of property markets, government intervention and attitudes to residential housing.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Merikas & Anna Merika & Nikiforos Laopodis & Anna Triantafyllou, 2012. "House Price Comovements in the Eurozone Economies," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 71-98.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:1:p:71-98
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Bandt, O. & Barhoumi, K. & Bruneau, C., 2010. "The international transmission of house price shocks," Working papers 274, Banque de France.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Kathleen Scanlon & Jens Lunde & Christine Whitehead, 2008. "Mortgage Product Innovation in Advanced Economies: More Choice, More Risk," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 109-131.
    4. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Angana Banerji & Haiyan Shi & Willy W. Hoffmaister, 2008. "House Price Developments in Europe; A Comparison," IMF Working Papers 08/211, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    6. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    7. Kathleen Scanlon & Jens Lunde & Christine Whitehead, 2008. "Mortgage Product Innovation in Advanced Economies: More Choice, More Risk," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 109-131.
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House Prices; Comovement; Eurozone;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • D46 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Value Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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