IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

How has sovereign bond market liquidity changed? An illiquidity spillover analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Schneider, Michael
  • Lillo, Fabrizio
  • Pelizzon, Loriana

Amid increasing regulation, structural changes of the market and Quantitative Easing as well as extremely low yields, concerns about the market liquidity of the Eurozone sovereign debt markets have been raised. We aim to quantify illiquidity risks, especially such related to liquidity dry-ups, and illiquidity spillover across maturities by examining the reaction to illiquidity shocks at high frequencies in two ways: a) the regular response to shocks using a variance decomposition and, b) the response to shocks in the extremes by detecting illiquidity shocks and modeling those as ultivariate Hawkes processes. We find that: a) market liquidity is more fragile and less predictable when an asset is very illiquid and, b) the response to shocks in the extremes is structurally different from the regular response. In 2015 long-term bonds are less liquid and the medium-term bonds are liquid, although we observe that in the extremes the medium-term bonds are increasingly driven by illiquidity spillover from the long-term titles.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/147244/1/871447738.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt in its series SAFE Working Paper Series with number 151.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2016
Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:151
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 3, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main

Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30080
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
Web page: http://safe-frankfurt.de/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Ana-Maria Dumitru & Giovanni Urga, 2011. "Identifying Jumps in Financial Assets: A Comparison Between Nonparametric Jump Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 242-255, October.
  2. Cheung, Yiu Chung & de Jong, Frank & Rindi, Barbara, 2005. "Trading European sovereign bonds: the microstructure of the MTS trading platforms," Working Paper Series 432, European Central Bank.
  3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
  4. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
  5. Emmanuel Bacry & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Muzy, 2015. "Hawkes processes in finance," Papers 1502.04592, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
  6. Anton Golub & John Keane & Ser-Huang Poon, 2012. "High Frequency Trading and Mini Flash Crashes," Papers 1211.6667, arXiv.org.
  7. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2013. "Liquidity commonality in commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 11-20.
  8. Goyenko, Ruslan & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Ukhov, Andrey, 2011. "The Term Structure of Bond Market Liquidity and Its Implications for Expected Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(01), pages 111-139, March.
  9. Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide & Uno, Jun, 2015. "Sovereign credit risk, liquidity, and ECB intervention: Deus ex machina?," SAFE Working Paper Series 95, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  10. Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
  11. Huberman, Gur & Halka, Dominika, 2001. "Systematic Liquidity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 161-178, Summer.
  12. Matteo Crosignani & Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Luís Fonseca, 2016. "The (unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever," ESRB Working Paper Series 31, European Systemic Risk Board.
  13. Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2011. "The world price of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 136-161, January.
  14. Sugato Chakravarty & Asani Sarkar, 1999. "Liquidity in U.S. fixed income markets: a comparison of the bid-ask spread in corporate, government and municipal bond markets," Staff Reports 73, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
  16. Paul Brockman & Dennis Y. Chung & Christophe Pérignon, 2009. "Commonality in Liquidity: A Global Perspective," Post-Print hal-00461036, HAL.
  17. Alfonso Dufour & Frank Skinner, 2004. "MTS Time Series: Market and Data Description for the European Bond and Repo Database," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2004-06, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  18. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
  19. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  20. Brockman, Paul & Chung, Dennis Y. & Pérignon, Christophe, 2009. "Commonality in Liquidity: A Global Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(04), pages 851-882, August.
  21. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
  22. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2008. "A Tale of Two Platforms: Dealer Intermediation in the European Sovereign Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Gur Huberman & Dominika Halka, 2001. "Systematic Liquidity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 161-178, 06.
  24. Loriano Mancini & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2013. "Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market: Measurement, Commonality, and Risk Premiums," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1805-1841, October.
  25. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
  26. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2014. "Mutual excitation in Eurozone sovereign CDS," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 151-167.
  27. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Price formation on the EuroMTS platform," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 229-233.
  28. Elyasiani, Elyas & Kocagil, Ahmet E. & Mansur, Iqbal, 2007. "Information transmission and spillover in currency markets: A generalized variance decomposition analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 312-330, May.
  29. Grégory Claeys & Alvaro Leandro & Allison Mandra, 2015. "European Central Bank quantitative easing: the detailed manual," Policy Contributions 872, Bruegel.
  30. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  31. Vere-Jones, David, 1995. "Forecasting earthquakes and earthquake risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 503-538, December.
  32. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, 02.
  33. Modena, Matteo & Linciano, Nadia & Gentile, Monica & Fancello, Francesco, 2014. "The liquidity of dual-listed corporate bonds: empirical evidence from Italian markets," MPRA Paper 62479, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Feb 2015.
  34. Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien & Manganelli, Simone & Vergote, Olivier, 2013. "A high frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," CEPR Discussion Papers 9778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Coluzzi, Chiara & Ginebri, Sergio & Turco, Manuel, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08044, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  36. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  37. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April.
  38. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
  39. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:242-255 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Robert Engle & Michael J. Fleming & Eric Ghysels & Giang Nguyen, 2012. "Liquidity, volatility, and flights to safety in the U.S. treasury market: evidence from a new class of dynamic order book models," Staff Reports 590, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  41. Alfonso Dufour & Minh Nguyen, 2012. "Permanent trading impacts and bond yields," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 841-864, October.
  42. Kamara, Avraham & Lou, Xiaoxia & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "The divergence of liquidity commonality in the cross-section of stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 444-466, September.
  43. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
  44. Dunne, Peter & Moore, Michael J. & Portes, Richard, 2006. "An Empirical Analysis of Transparency-Related Characteristics of European and US Sovereign Bond Markets," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
  45. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
  46. Coughenour, Jay F. & Saad, Mohsen M., 2004. "Common market makers and commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 37-69, July.
  47. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.