IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/epolit/v33y2016i1d10.1007_s40888-016-0022-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the volatility transmission between oil and stock markets: a comparison of emerging importers and exporters

Author

Listed:
  • Elie Bouri

    (Holy Spirit University of Kaslik (USEK))

  • Riza Demirer

    (Sothern Illinois University Edwardswille)

Abstract

This paper examines the volatility transmissions between the oil and stock markets by performing causality-in-variance tests across a number of emerging (oil) importing and exporting nations. The volatility spillover causality tests generally rule out country-to-oil effects, suggesting unidirectional volatility transmissions from oil prices to emerging stock markets, particularly in the case of the net exporting nations of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE. We also observe significant volatility spillovers from oil prices to emerging importers during the post-global financial crisis period. The findings suggest that the information on oil market volatility combined with the magnitude of volatility spillovers can be utilized towards modeling and monitoring volatility shocks in emerging stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer, 2016. "On the volatility transmission between oil and stock markets: a comparison of emerging importers and exporters," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(1), pages 63-82, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:33:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s40888-016-0022-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-016-0022-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40888-016-0022-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40888-016-0022-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demirer, Rıza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P. & Khalifa, Ahmed A.A., 2015. "Oil price risk exposure and the cross-section of stock returns: The case of net exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 132-140.
    2. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Nandha, Mohan & Turkistani, Abdullah Q. & Alaitani, Muhammed Y., 2011. "Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-55.
    3. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
    5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    7. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    8. Choi, Kyongwook & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2010. "Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4388-4399, August.
    9. Maghyereh, A., 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 27-40.
    10. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    12. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
    13. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Renatas Kizys, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from European Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    14. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    15. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives What in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 41-56.
    16. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Choi, Kyongwook, 2006. "Behavior of GCC stock markets and impacts of US oil and financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 22-44, March.
    17. Jouini, Jamel, 2013. "Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1124-1144.
    18. Chiou, Jer-Shiou & Lee, Yen-Hsien, 2009. "Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 788-796.
    19. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2010. "An empirical investigation of the informational efficiency of the GCC equity markets: Evidence from bootstrap simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-54, January.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 356-361, January.
    21. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
    22. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    23. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    24. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    25. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 271-279.
    26. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    27. Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Njeh, Hassen, 2012. "Assessing the impacts of oil price fluctuations on stock returns in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2686-2695.
    28. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "Return and volatility linkages between oil prices and the Lebanese stock market in crisis periods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 365-371.
    29. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    30. Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
    31. Bouri, Elie I, 2014. "Israeli-Hezbollah War and Global Financial Crisis in the Middle East and North African Equity Markets," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 29, pages 1-19.
    32. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "A Lagrange multiplier test for causality in variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 137-141, October.
    33. Fayyad, Abdallah & Daly, Kevin, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns: Comparing GCC countries with the UK and USA," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, March.
    34. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer, 2015. "Effect of Global Shocks and Volatility on Herd Behavior in an Emerging Market: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 140-159, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf Mohsen & Brooks, Robert, 2022. "Risk transmission from the oil market to Islamic and conventional banks in oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. John Robertson & University of Dundee, Dundee, UK, 2020. "Volatility Transmission between Oil Prices and Stock Prices as a New Source of Instability: Lessons from the UK Experience," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 217-223.
    3. Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Vosgha, Hamed, 2019. "Oil price and Gulf Corporation Council stock indices: New evidence from time-varying copula models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 81-91.
    4. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Ulussever, Talat, 2017. "Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in emerging stock markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-63.
    5. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Analysing volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Implications on portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 22-32.
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
    7. Sarwar, Suleman & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Waheed, Rida & Dastgerdi, Hamidreza Ghorbani, 2019. "Volatility spillovers and hedging: Evidence from Asian oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-488.
    8. Jorge Blazquez, Lester C Hunt, and Baltasar Manzano, 2017. "Oil Subsidies and Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia: A General Equilibrium Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    9. Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tingqiu, Cao, 2020. "Analyzing volatility spillovers between oil market and Asian stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Lorna Katusiime, 2018. "Investigating Spillover Effects between Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Price Volatility in Uganda," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, December.
    11. He, Zhifang & Sun, Hao & Chen, Jiaqi & Yang, Xin & Yin, Zhujia, 2023. "Dynamic interaction of risk–return trade-offs between oil market and China’s stock market: An analysis from the risk preferences perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    13. Sarwar, Suleman & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Awais & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "The importance of oil assets for portfolio optimization: The analysis of firm level stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 217-234.
    14. Yousaf, Imran & Beljid, Makram & Chaibi, Anis & Ajlouni, Ahmed AL, 2022. "Do volatility spillover and hedging among GCC stock markets and global factors vary from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Melike E. Bildirici & Memet Salman & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2022. "Nonlinear Contagion and Causality Nexus between Oil, Gold, VIX Investor Sentiment, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Returns: The MS-GARCH Copula Causality Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-16, October.
    16. Salem Adel Ziadat & David G. McMillan, 2022. "Oil-stock nexus: the role of oil shocks for GCC markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(5), pages 801-818, May.
    17. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2017. "On the dynamic interactions between energy and stock markets under structural shifts: Evidence from Egypt," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 61-74.
    18. Belasen, Ariel R. & Demirer, Rıza, 2019. "Commodity-currencies or currency-commodities: Evidence from causality tests," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 162-168.
    19. Alper Gormus & Ugur Soytas, 2023. "Financial Sector Troubles and Energy Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 357-363, March.
    20. Xiao, Jihong & Hu, Chunyan & Ouyang, Guangda & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Impacts of oil implied volatility shocks on stock implied volatility in China: Empirical evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 297-309.
    21. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Tareq Saeed, 2022. "Oil price risk exposure of BRIC stock markets and hedging effectiveness," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 145-170, June.
    22. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Talat Ulussever, 2016. "Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in net exporting nations?," Working Papers 15-29, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    23. Talat Ulussever & Riza Demirer, 2017. "Investor herds and oil prices evidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) equity markets," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(3), pages 1-77–89.
    24. Zhou, Wei & Gu, Qinen & Chen, Jin, 2021. "From volatility spillover to risk spread: An empirical study focuses on renewable energy markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 329-342.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 271-279.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    3. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    5. Hammami, Algia & Ghenimi, Ameni & Bouri, Abdelfatteh, 2019. "Oil prices, US exchange rates, and stock market: evidence from Jordan as a net oil importer," MPRA Paper 94570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Berna Aydoğan & Gökçe Tunç & Tezer Yelkenci, 2017. "The impact of oil price volatility on net-oil exporter and importer countries’ stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 231-253, August.
    7. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    10. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Spillovers between oil and stock markets at times of geopolitical unrest and economic turbulence," MPRA Paper 59760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    12. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
    13. Naser, Hanan & Ahmed, Abdul Rashid, 2016. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Performance in Emerging Economies: Some Evidence using FAVAR Models," MPRA Paper 77868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Manel Youssef & Khaled Mokni, 2019. "Do Crude Oil Prices Drive the Relationship between Stock Markets of Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-22, July.
    15. Bouri, Elie & Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2016. "Crude oil prices and sectoral stock returns in Jordan around the Arab uprisings of 2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 205-214.
    16. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    18. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Joseph Macri & Kambiz Raffiee, 2021. "Dynamics of crude oil price shocks and major Latin American Equity Markets: A study in time and frequency domains," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 432-455, July.
    19. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2017. "Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 453-483.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price risk; Emerging markets; Volatility spillover; Causality tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:33:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s40888-016-0022-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.