IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v184y2024ics0301421523004470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vulnerability of European electricity markets: A quantile connectedness approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chuliá, Helena
  • Klein, Tony
  • Muñoz Mendoza, Jorge A.
  • Uribe, Jorge M.

Abstract

The most recent dramatic increases in European Gas and Electricity prices demonstrate how vulnerable Europe is to energy supply shocks. We investigate the transmission of shocks from natural gas prices to local electricity prices in 21 European electricity markets. Using a quantile connectedness model, we find that the vulnerability of electricity markets in Europe varies both over time and across quantiles. Natural gas price shocks have a significant and nearly symmetrical impact on extreme quantiles of electricity prices. However, for moderate price changes, there is a disconnection between electricity and natural gas markets. We also identify the European countries that are most and least vulnerable to shocks in natural gas prices, which is due to differing energy mixes for electricity production. This novel vulnerability index has implications for the development of country-specific regulations and energy policies aimed at reducing the reliance on natural gas in European economies, combating energy poverty, and promoting the growth of renewable energy sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuliá, Helena & Klein, Tony & Muñoz Mendoza, Jorge A. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Vulnerability of European electricity markets: A quantile connectedness approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:184:y:2024:i:c:s0301421523004470
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113862
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421523004470
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113862?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Guotao & Liao, Qi & Li, Zhengbing & Zhang, Haoran & Liang, Yongtu & Wei, Xuemei, 2022. "How does soaring natural gas prices impact renewable energy: A case study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    3. Pereira, Diogo Santos & Marques, António Cardoso, 2023. "How do energy forms impact energy poverty? An analysis of European degrees of urbanisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    5. Chaudry, Modassar & Jenkins, Nick & Qadrdan, Meysam & Wu, Jianzhong, 2014. "Combined gas and electricity network expansion planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1171-1187.
    6. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2021. "EMU risk-synchronisation and financial fragility through the prism of dynamic connectedness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    8. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    9. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    12. Chuliá, Helena & Muñoz-Mendoza, Jorge A. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "Energy firms in emerging markets: Systemic risk and diversification opportunities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    13. Chevallier, Julien & Khuong Nguyen, Duc & Carlos Reboredo, Juan, 2019. "A conditional dependence approach to CO2-energy price relationships," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 812-821.
    14. Gong, Xu & Chen, Liqiang & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Analyzing dynamic impacts of different oil shocks on oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    15. Saeed, Tareq & Bouri, Elie & Alsulami, Hamed, 2021. "Extreme return connectedness and its determinants between clean/green and dirty energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    16. Alexopoulos, Thomas A., 2017. "The growing importance of natural gas as a predictor for retail electricity prices in US," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 219-233.
    17. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    18. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Peng, Zhe & Suleman, Mouhammed Tahir & Nepal, Rabindra & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Time and frequency connectedness among oil shocks, electricity and clean energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Sheikhi, Aras & Bahrami, Shahab & Ranjbar, Ali Mohammad, 2015. "An autonomous demand response program for electricity and natural gas networks in smart energy hubs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 490-499.
    20. Barbaglia, Luca & Croux, Christophe & Wilms, Ines, 2020. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets: A large t-vector autoregressive approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    21. Gabauer, David, 2021. "Dynamic measures of asymmetric & pairwise connectedness within an optimal currency area: Evidence from the ERM I system," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    22. Tomohiro Ando & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2022. "Quantile Connectedness: Modeling Tail Behavior in the Topology of Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2401-2431, April.
    23. Uribe, Jorge M. & Mosquera-López, Stephania & Arenas, Oscar J., 2022. "Assessing the relationship between electricity and natural gas prices in European markets in times of distress," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    24. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Leatham, David J., 2017. "Hedging downside risk of oil refineries: A vine copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 493-507.
    25. Cassetta, Ernesto & Nava, Consuelo R. & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "A three-step procedure to investigate the convergence of electricity and natural gas prices in the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    26. M. Erdinç Telatar & Nermin Yaşar, 2020. "The Convergence of Electricity Prices for European Union Countries," Springer Books, in: André Dorsman & Özgür Arslan-Ayaydin & James Thewissen (ed.), Regulations in the Energy Industry, pages 55-63, Springer.
    27. Johnson, Timothy L. & Keith, David W., 2004. "Fossil electricity and CO2 sequestration: how natural gas prices, initial conditions and retrofits determine the cost of controlling CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 367-382, February.
    28. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Su, Xianfang & Zhao, Yachao, 2023. "What has the strongest connectedness with clean energy? Technology, substitutes, or raw materials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Muñoz Mendoza, Jorge A. & Ferreira, Guillermo & Márquez Sanders, Vicente A., 2023. "Liquidity spillovers in the global stock markets: Lessons for risk management," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Zhang, Jiahao & Zhang, Yifeng & Wei, Yu & Wang, Zhuo, 2024. "Normal and extreme impact and connectedness between fossil energy futures markets and uncertainties: Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 188-215.
    4. Cunado, Juncal & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Hardik, Marfatia, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers across precious metals and oil realized volatilities: Evidence from quantile extended joint connectedness measures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    5. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Realized volatility spillovers between energy and metal markets: a time-varying connectedness approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Gabauer, David & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Stenfors, Alexis, 2023. "Model-free connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Aharon, David Y. & Kizys, Renatas & Umar, Zaghum & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Did David win a battle or the war against Goliath? Dynamic return and volatility connectedness between the GameStop stock and the high short interest indices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Peng, Zhe & Suleman, Mouhammed Tahir & Nepal, Rabindra & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Time and frequency connectedness among oil shocks, electricity and clean energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Li, Hailing & Pei, Xiaoyun & Yang, Yimin & Zhang, Hua, 2024. "Assessing the impact of energy-related uncertainty on G20 stock market returns: A decomposed contemporaneous and lagged R2 connectedness approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "On the Propagation Mechanism of International Real Interest Rate Spillovers: Evidence from More than 200 Years of Data," Working Papers 202212, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Andr s Oviedo-G mez & Sandra Milena Londo o-Hern ndez & Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque, 2023. "Directional Spillover of Fossil Fuels Prices on a Hydrothermal Power Generation Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 85-90, January.
    13. Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "Infection, invasion, and inflation: Recent lessons," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Chen, Huayi & Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2024. "Carbon volatility connectedness and the role of external uncertainties: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    15. Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Wali Ullah, G M & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khan, Isma, 2023. "Tail risk contagion across electricity markets in crisis periods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    16. Sikorska-Pastuszka, Magdalena & Papież, Monika, 2023. "Dynamic volatility connectedness in the European electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    17. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Karim, Sitara, 2024. "Measuring the G20 stock market return transmission mechanism: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Keagile Lesame & Elie Bouri & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "On the Dynamics of International Real Estate Investment Trust Propagation Mechanisms: Evidence from Time-Varying Return and Volatility Connectedness Measures," Working Papers 202152, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy prices; Energy poverty; Markets distress; Market vulnerability; Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:184:y:2024:i:c:s0301421523004470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.