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Anchoring Households' Inflation Expectations when Inflation is High

Author

Listed:
  • Nghiem, Giang
  • Dräger, Lena
  • Dalloul, Ami

Abstract

This paper explores communication strategies for anchoring households' medium-term inflation expectations in a high inflation environment. We conducted a survey experiment with a representative sample of 4,000 German households at the height of the recent inflation surge in early 2023, with information treatments including a qualitative statement by the ECB president and quantitative information about the ECB's inflation target or projected inflation. Inflation projections are most effective, but combining information about the target with a qualitative statement also significantly improves anchoring. The treatment effects are particularly pronounced among respondents with high financial literacy and high trust in the central bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Nghiem, Giang & Dräger, Lena & Dalloul, Ami, 2024. "Anchoring Households' Inflation Expectations when Inflation is High," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-719, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-719
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    Cited by:

    1. Anahit Matinyan & Ardash Kilejian & Gevorg Minasyan & Aleksandr Shirkhanyan, 2025. "The Role of Information in Shaping Inflation Expectations and Perceptions: A Survey Experiment," Working Papers WP-2025-02, Central Bank of Armenia.
    2. Lena Dräger & Maximilian Floto & Marina Schröder, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Economic Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 11326, CESifo.
    3. DiGiuseppe, Matthew & Garriga, Ana Carolina & Kern, Andreas, 2025. "Partisan Bias in Inflation Expectations," MPRA Paper 124391, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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