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Anchoring inflation expectations: A teaching treatment and its persistence through the 2025 German federal election

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  • Gockel, Christine
  • Strohsal, Till

Abstract

We study how inflation expectations can be anchored through different forms of communication and whether such anchoring survives political change. Using a two-wave panel RCT around the 2025 German federal election, we show that providing the ECB's target and projections lowers expectations by about 100 basis points. We then introduce a teaching-style intervention explaining the ECB's institutional role using simple language and an intuitive metaphor, which proves equally effective. Treatment effects persist through the election, and partisan polarization remains modest. Our results suggest that well-designed communication - combining quantitative information with clear explanations of institutional responsibility - can durably anchor beliefs even in changing political environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Gockel, Christine & Strohsal, Till, 2026. "Anchoring inflation expectations: A teaching treatment and its persistence through the 2025 German federal election," Discussion Papers 2026/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:342441
    DOI: 10.17169/refubium-52043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aidala, Felix & Armantier, Olivier & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2024. "Partisan expectations and COVID era inflation: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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