Todd Clark
Citations
Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Todd E. Clark, 1995.
"Do producer prices lead consumer prices?,"
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 80(Q III), pages 25-39.
Mentioned in:
- From PPI to CPI
by ? in FRED blog on 2021-04-12 13:00:00
- From PPI to CPI
- Author Profile
- Top Forecasting Institutions and Researchers According to IDEAS!
by Clive Jones in Business Forecasting on 2013-06-28 01:43:46
- Top Forecasting Institutions and Researchers According to IDEAS!
RePEc Biblio mentions
As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Mentioned in:
- Todd E. Clark & Fabian Krueger & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015.
"Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1439, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
- Krüger, Fabian & Clark, Todd E. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Fabian Kr�ger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers No 8/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
Mentioned in:
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 46-73, January.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Mentioned in:
- Clark, Todd E., 2011.
"Real-Time Density Forecasts From Bayesian Vector Autoregressions With Stochastic Volatility,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 327-341.
- Todd E. Clark, 2011. "Real-Time Density Forecasts From Bayesian Vector Autoregressions With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 327-341, July.
Mentioned in:
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 53-66, February.
- Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2012. "Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 53-66.
Mentioned in:
Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions
(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010.
"Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Mentioned in:
Working papers
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022.
"Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
17461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 979-1022, August.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
Cited by:
- Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner, 2023. "Are Phillips curves in CESEE still alive and well behaved?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/23, pages 7-27.
- Tony Chernis & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023.
"Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function,"
Working Papers
23-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Tony Chernis & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function," Staff Working Papers 23-61, Bank of Canada.
- Tony Chernis & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function," Papers 2311.12671, arXiv.org.
- Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Papers 2311.16333, arXiv.org.
- Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
- Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Forecasting euro area inflation with machine-learning models," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 112.
- Michael Zhemkov, 2021.
"Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach,"
International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 10-24.
- Zhemkov, Michael, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 10-24.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Working Papers 23-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Nov 2023.
- Oyebayo Ridwan Olaniran & Ali Rashash R. Alzahrani, 2023. "On the Oracle Properties of Bayesian Random Forest for Sparse High-Dimensional Gaussian Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-29, December.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models,"
Papers
2202.13793, arXiv.org.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models," Working Papers 22-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary, 2023. "Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 18244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Cited by:
- Petar Soric & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra & Oscar Claveria, 2022.
"“Density forecasts of inflation using Gaussian process regression models”,"
AQR Working Papers
202207, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2022.
- Petar Soric & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra & Oscar Claveria, 2022. ""Density forecasts of inflation using Gaussian process regression models"," IREA Working Papers 202210, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2022.
- Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
- Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
- Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Martin Gachter & Elias Hasler & Florian Huber, 2023. "A tale of two tails: 130 years of growth-at-risk," Papers 2302.08920, arXiv.org.
- Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022.
"Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
17512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 20-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
Cited by:
- Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
- Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
- Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021.
"Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions,"
Papers
2103.03632, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
- Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Sune Karlsson & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen, 2021.
"Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails,"
Papers
2105.11182, arXiv.org.
- Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2021. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Working Papers 2021:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2023. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea, 2021. "Nowcasting Tail Risk to Economic Activity at a Weekly Frequency," CEPR Discussion Papers 16496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020.
"Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Patrick A. Adams & Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," Staff Reports 914, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1173-1191.
- Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021.
"Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances,"
Working Papers
2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
- Mihail Yanchev, 2022. "Deep Growth-at-Risk Model: Nowcasting the 2020 Pandemic Lockdown Recession in Small Open Economies," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 20-41.
- Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023.
"Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
- Anthony Garratt & Timo Henckel & Shaun P. Vahey, 2019. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," CAMA Working Papers 2019-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
- Paul Labonne & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2023. "Risky news and credit market sentiment," Working Papers No 14/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Martin Gachter & Elias Hasler & Florian Huber, 2023. "A tale of two tails: 130 years of growth-at-risk," Papers 2302.08920, arXiv.org.
- Leopoldo Catania & Alessandra Luati & Pierluigi Vallarino, 2021. "Economic vulnerability is state dependent," CREATES Research Papers 2021-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Szendrei, Tibor & Varga, Katalin, 2023. "Revisiting vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Identifying the role of financial conditions in the distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
- Falconio, Andrea & Manganelli, Simone, 2020. "Financial conditions, business cycle fluctuations and growth at risk," Working Paper Series 2470, European Central Bank.
- Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022.
"Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yu Bai & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Macroeconomic forecasting in a multi‐country context," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1230-1255, September.
- Yu Bai & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," Working Papers 22-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Cited by:
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Karin Klieber & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Enhanced Bayesian Neural Networks for Macroeconomics and Finance," Papers 2211.04752, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics,"
Working Papers
22-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Cited by:
- Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea, 2021.
"Nowcasting Tail Risk to Economic Activity at a Weekly Frequency,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
16496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
Cited by:
- Narasingha Das & Partha Gangopadhyay, 2023. "Did weekly economic index and volatility index impact US food sales during the first year of the pandemic?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
- Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2022. "Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alternative Time-varying Volatility Specifications," Papers 2211.16121, arXiv.org.
- Paul Labonne, 2022. "Asymmetric Uncertainty: Nowcasting Using Skewness in Real-time Data," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-23, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
- Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021.
"Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs,"
Working Papers
21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Cited by:
- Schorfheide, Frank & Aruoba, Boragan & Mlikota, Marko & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2021.
"SVARs With Occasionally-Binding Constraints,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
15923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Marko Mlikota & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "SVARs With Occasionally-Binding Constraints," NBER Working Papers 28571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aruoba, S. Borağan & Mlikota, Marko & Schorfheide, Frank & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2022. "SVARs with occasionally-binding constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 477-499.
- Schorfheide, Frank & Aruoba, Boragan & Mlikota, Marko & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2021.
"SVARs With Occasionally-Binding Constraints,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
15923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2021.
"Using Time-Varying Volatility for Identification in Vector Autoregressions: An Application to Endogenous Uncertainty,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
16346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2021. "Using time-varying volatility for identification in Vector Autoregressions: An application to endogenous uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 47-73.
Cited by:
- Olli Palm'en, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effect of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks: a non-Gaussian VAR approach," Papers 2202.10834, arXiv.org.
- Sune Karlsson & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen, 2021.
"Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails,"
Papers
2105.11182, arXiv.org.
- Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2021. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Working Papers 2021:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2023. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Ambrocio, Gene, 2020.
"Inflationary household uncertainty shocks,"
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
5/2020, Bank of Finland.
- Ambrocio, Gene, 2022. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2022, Bank of Finland.
- Samad Sarferaz & Andreas Dibiasi, 2020.
"Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Cross-Country Analysis,"
KOF Working papers
20-479, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
- Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of Economic Uncertainty on Remittances Flows from Developed Countries," EconStor Preprints 279480, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Andrea Carriero & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Generalizing the Max Share Identification to multiple shocks identification: an Application to Uncertainty," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0322, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Tornese, 2022.
"Macro Uncertainty in the Long Run,"
BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers
22188, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Tornese, Tommaso, 2023. "Macro uncertainty in the long run," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
- Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Mertens, Elmar, 2021.
"Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
15965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era," Working Papers 20-32R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 05 Jan 2022.
Cited by:
- Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
- Luis J. Álvarez & Florens Odendahl, 2022. "Data outliers and Bayesian VARs in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2239, Banco de España.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021.
"Investigating Growth at Risk Using a Multi-country Non-parametric Quantile Factor Model,"
Papers
2110.03411, arXiv.org.
- Todd Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Investigating Growth at Risk Using a Multi-country Non-parametric Quantile Factor Model," Working Papers 2307, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
Cited by:
- Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021.
"Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions,"
Papers
2103.03632, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
- Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schroder, 2022.
"Probabilistic quantile factor analysis,"
Papers
2212.10301, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis," Working Papers No 05/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schroder, 2023.
"Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk,"
Papers
2305.09563, arXiv.org.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Working Paper series 23-06, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Working Paper 2023/9, Norges Bank.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Working Papers No 06/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea & Mertens, Elmar, 2021.
"Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
15964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 21-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 09 Aug 2021.
Cited by:
- Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian & Pohle, Marc-Oliver, 2022.
"Score-based calibration testing for multivariate forecast distributions,"
Discussion Papers
50/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Malte Knuppel & Fabian Kruger & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2022. "Score-based calibration testing for multivariate forecast distributions," Papers 2211.16362, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
- Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2020.
"Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
20-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Schorfheide, Frank & Song, Dongho, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 16760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," Working Papers 20-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 29535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Prüser, Jan, 2021. "The horseshoe prior for time-varying parameter VARs and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
- Sune Karlsson & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen, 2021.
"Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails,"
Papers
2105.11182, arXiv.org.
- Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2021. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Working Papers 2021:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2023. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Budnik, Katarzyna & Groß, Johannes & Vagliano, Gianluca & Dimitrov, Ivan & Lampe, Max & Panos, Jiri & Velasco, Sofia & Boucherie, Louis & Jančoková, Martina, 2023. "BEAST: A model for the assessment of system-wide risks and macroprudential policies," Working Paper Series 2855, European Central Bank.
- Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022.
"Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?,"
Working Papers
2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Tamás Kiss & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modelling Okun’s law: Does non-Gaussianity matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2183-2213, May.
- Serena Ng, 2021.
"Modeling Macroeconomic Variations after Covid-19,"
NBER Working Papers
29060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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2020-97, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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PIER Working Paper Archive
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Cited by:
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Cited by:
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"On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty,"
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"Empirical evidence on the dynamics of investment under uncertainty in the U.S,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
19-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
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"On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
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Cited by:
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"Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity,"
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"What Is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?,"
VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage"
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"Trading Ambiguity: A Tale Of Two Heterogeneities,"
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"The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 841-869, August.
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"Network Analysis of Economic and Financial Uncertainties in Advanced Economies: Evidence from Graph-Theory,"
Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(1), pages 188-215, March.
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"Vulnerable growth,"
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"Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty,"
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"Implications of macroeconomic volatility in the Euro area,"
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"Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality,"
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"Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era,"
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"Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges,"
CEPII Policy Brief
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"Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions,"
Staff Working Papers
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"Tax shocks with high and low uncertainty,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 972-993, September.
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"The Real Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks: A Daily Identification Approach,"
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""Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic","
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"Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Measure and Impacts on the Canadian Economy,"
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"“Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty”,"
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"Inflationary household uncertainty shocks,"
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"Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy,"
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"Uncertainty and Growth Disasters,"
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"Are the effects of uncertainty shocks big or small?,"
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"A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
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"Financial and non-financial global stock market volatility shocks,"
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"What Is Certain about Uncertainty?,"
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"Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
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"The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States,"
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"Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data,"
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"Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics,"
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- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016.
"Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Cited by:
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017.
"Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions,"
Working Paper series
17-32, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 103R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Apr 2016.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Bayesian compressed vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 135-154.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 103, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
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"Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR,"
Working Paper Series
43, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing dimensions in a large TVP-VAR," CAMA Working Papers 2018-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper series 18-37, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019.
"Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
- Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
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- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Fabian Kr�ger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015.
"Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts,"
Working Papers
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- Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
- Krüger, Fabian & Clark, Todd E. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Todd E. Clark & Fabian Krueger & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers (Old Series) 1439, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Cited by:
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017.
"Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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"Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG,"
Working Papers
99, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Davide Pettenuzzo & Aaron Smith, 2019. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic Tilting," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 17(4), pages 559-586.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2016. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG," Working Papers 99R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Aug 2016.
- Taeyoung Doh, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021.
"Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
- Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Does Judgment Improve Macroeconomic Density Forecasts?," EMF Research Papers 33, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023.
"Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach," Working Papers 20-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Edward Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: a model-combination approach," Working Papers 2015, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Christiane Baumeister, 2021.
"Measuring Market Expectations,"
NBER Working Papers
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- Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9305, CESifo.
- Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2018.
"UK Regional Nowcasting using a Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Model,"
Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers
ESCoE DP-2018-07, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
- Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2018. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector autoregressive model," Working Papers 1805, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Christopher McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016.
"Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target,"
CAMA Working Papers
2016-40, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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- Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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"Modelling the dynamics of unconventional monetary policies’ impact on professionals’ forecasts,"
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"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
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- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021.
"Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?,"
Discussion Papers
48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
- Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
- Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2019.
"Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool,"
Discussion Papers
28/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2017. "Forecast Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Linear Pools of Density Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168294, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
- Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2017.
"Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Crises,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2017-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
- Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019.
"Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information and structural change in the euro area,"
Working Papers
1948, Banco de España.
- Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
- Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR Forecasts, Survey Information and Structural Change in the Euro Area," Working papers 733, Banque de France.
- Ganics, Gergely & Mertens, Elmar & Clark, Todd E., 2023.
"What Is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?,"
VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage"
277622, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," Working Papers 22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2023. "Anchoring Long-term VAR Forecasts Based On Survey Data and State-space Models," Working Papers Series 574, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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- Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Fabian Krüger, 2017. "Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 235-246, August.
- Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Paredes, Joan & Wolf, Elias, 2022. "Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach," Working Paper Series 2754, European Central Bank.
- Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2020. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto‐regressive model with entropic tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 91-119, January.
- Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.
- Fabian Krüger & Sebastian Lerch & Thordis Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(2), pages 274-301, August.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2015.
"A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1520, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
Cited by:
- Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018.
"Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies,"
IMF Working Papers
2018/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1755, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Juan Angel Garcia & Sebastian Werner, 2018. "Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2018/167, International Monetary Fund.
- Marente Vlekke & Martin Mellens & Siem Jan Koopmans, 2020. "An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 416, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2015.
"Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
KOF Working papers
15-393, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1016-1036, October.
- Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp214, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Huber, Florian & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2016. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 214, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Florian, Huber & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2019. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working Papers in Economics 2019-4, University of Salzburg.
- Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Francesca Rondina, 2018.
"Estimating unobservable inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
Working Papers
1804E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
- Francesca Rondina, 2018. "Estimating Unobservable Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, February.
- Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2018.
"Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations,"
VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy
181520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation," IMF Working Papers 2018/154, International Monetary Fund.
- García, Juan Angel & Poon, Aubrey, 2019.
"Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks,"
Working Paper Series
2338, European Central Bank.
- Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
- Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021.
"Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
- Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2018. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data," Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.
- Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021.
"Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions,"
Papers
2103.03632, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
- Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Pär Österholm & Aubrey Poon, 2023.
"Trend Inflation in Sweden,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4707-4716, October.
- Österholm, Pär & Poon, Aubrey, 2022. "Trend Inflation in Sweden," Working Papers 2022:2, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Marcelo Arbex & Sidney Caetano & Wilson Correa, 2018.
"Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Target Uncertainty Shocks,"
Working Papers
1804, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
- Arbex, Marcelo & Caetano, Sidney & Correa, Wilson, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation target uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 111-115.
- Jmaes McNeil, 2020.
"Monetary policy and the term structure of Inflation expectations with information frictions,"
Working Papers
daleconwp2020-07, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
- McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020.
"Global factors and trend inflation,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
- Gunes Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2019. "Global factors and trend inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2019-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Güneş Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Global factors and trend inflation," BIS Working Papers 688, Bank for International Settlements.
- Güneş Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Global Factors and Trend Inflation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
- Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Andriantomanga, Zo, 2023. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," MPRA Paper 119904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021.
"Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?,"
Discussion Papers
48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
- Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
- Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019.
"Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration,"
MPRA Paper
91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Murasawa Yasutomo, 2022. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 387-415, June.
- Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
- Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018.
"An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
- Lenza, Michele & Jarociński, Marek, 2016. "An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1966, European Central Bank.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2017.
"Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 442-457.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Estimating the US trend short-term interest rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
- Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013.
"Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables,"
Working Papers
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- Baxa Jaromír & Plašil Miroslav & Vašíček Bořek, 2017. "Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-42, January.
- Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Chew Lian Chua & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Why Has Australian Wages Growth Been So Low? A Phillips Curve Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 11-32, June.
- Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2018.
"New VAR evidence on monetary transmission channels: temporary interest rate versus inflation target shocks,"
Department of Economics Working Paper Series
274, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Elizaveta Lukmanova & Katrin Rabitsch, 2018. "New VAR evidence on monetary transmission channels: temporary interest rate versus inflation target shocks," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 630040, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
- Elizaveta Lukmanova & Katrin Rabitsch, 2018. "New VAR evidence on monetary transmission channels: temporary interest rate versus inflation target shocks," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp274, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020.
"Macroeconomic Changes with Declining Trend Inflation: Complementarity with the Superstar Firm Hypothesis,"
Working Papers
20-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2022. "Macroeconomic changes with declining trend inflation: Complementarity with the superstar firm hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
- Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2021. "Macroeconomic Changes with Declining Trend Inflation: Complementarity with the Superstar Firm Hypothesis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-13, Bank of Japan.
- Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
- Kristin Forbes, 2019. "Has globalization changed the inflation process?," BIS Working Papers 791, Bank for International Settlements.
- Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
- Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
- Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Assessing the Synchronicity and Nature of Australian State Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 372-390, December.
- James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
- Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
- Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2020.
"Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequency Matters,"
CEF.UP Working Papers
2001, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- Martins, Manuel Mota Freitas & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Forecasting inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Frequency matters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020, Bank of Finland.
- Martins, Manuel Mota Freitas & Verona, Fabio, 2021.
"Inflation dynamics and forecast: Frequency matters,"
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
8/2021, Bank of Finland.
- Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2021. "Inflation Dynamics and Forecast: Frequency Matters," CEF.UP Working Papers 2101, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023.
"Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
- Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
- Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023.
"Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts,"
Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
- Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Forecasting Inflation with a Zero Lower Bound or Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from Point and Density Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 9687, CESifo.
- Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023.
"Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Karin Klieber, 2020. "Real-time Inflation Forecasting Using Non-linear Dimension Reduction Techniques," Papers 2012.08155, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
- Semmler, Willi & Gross, Marco, 2017.
"Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
2004, European Central Bank.
- Marco Gross & Willi Semmler, 2019. "Mind the Output Gap: The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation during Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 817-848, August.
- N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
- Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2018.
"Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations,"
CAMA Working Papers
2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
- Cecchetti, Stephen & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil & Schoenholtz, Kermit L., 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
- Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors,"
Working Papers
759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
Cited by:
- Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016.
"Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
wuwp222, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2018. "Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-31, October.
- Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools Same Channels?," Working Papers 208, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Huber, Florian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2016. "Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 222, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017.
"Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions,"
Working Paper series
17-32, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 103R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Apr 2016.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Bayesian compressed vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 135-154.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 103, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Feldkircher, Martin & Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2019.
"Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment,"
Department of Economics Working Paper Series
289, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Martin Feldkircher & Elizaveta Lukmanova & Gabriele Tondl, 2019. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp289, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Martin Feldkircher & Gabriele Tondl, 2020. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 225-247, August.
- Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018.
"Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity,"
GRIPS Discussion Papers
18-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto León-González & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity," Working Paper series 18-38, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- CHAN Joshua & DOUCET Arnaud & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & STRACHAN Rodney W., 2020. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity," GRIPS Discussion Papers 20-09, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto León-González & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with co-heteroscedasticity," CAMA Working Papers 2018-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Martin, Feldkircher & Thomas, Gruber & Florian, Huber, 2019.
"International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves,"
Working Papers in Economics
2019-1, University of Salzburg.
- Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 248, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168111, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
- Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Florian Huber, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp248, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Gregor Kastner & Florian Huber, 2020.
"Sparse Bayesian vector autoregressions in huge dimensions,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1142-1165, November.
- Gregor Kastner & Florian Huber, 2017. "Sparse Bayesian vector autoregressions in huge dimensions," Papers 1704.03239, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
- Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
- Florian Huber & Thomas Zörner, 2017.
"Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
wuwp250, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 250, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Christian Hotz‐Behofsits & Florian Huber & Thomas Otto Zörner, 2018.
"Predicting crypto‐currencies using sparse non‐Gaussian state space models,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 627-640, September.
- Christian Hotz-Behofsits & Florian Huber & Thomas O. Zorner, 2018. "Predicting crypto-currencies using sparse non-Gaussian state space models," Papers 1801.06373, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
- Pappa, Evi & Molteni, Francesco, 2017.
"The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
12541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- MOLTENI, Francesco, PAPPA, Evi, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/13, European University Institute.
- Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Steven Ongena & Mike G. Tsionas, 2023. "The response of household debt to COVID-19 using a neural networks VAR in OECD," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 65-91, July.
- Assaf, A. George & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Forecasting occupancy rate with Bayesian compression methods," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 439-449.
- Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016.
"Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
wuwp222, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Kristle Romero Cortes & Philip E. Strahan, 2014.
"Tracing Out Capital Flows: How Financially Integrated Banks Respond to Natural Disasters,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1412, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Cortés, Kristle Romero & Strahan, Philip E., 2017. "Tracing out capital flows: How financially integrated banks respond to natural disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 182-199.
- Kristle Romero Cortes & Philip E. Strahan, 2015. "Tracing Out Capital Flows: How Financially Integrated Banks Respond to Natural Disasters," Working Papers (Old Series) 14-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Cited by:
- Huber, Kilian, 2021.
"Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
15769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian Huber, 2021. "Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany," NBER Working Papers 28767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huber, Kilian, 2020. "Are bigger banks better?: firm level evidence from Germany," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108497, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Kilian Huber, 2021. "Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 2023-2066.
- Kilian Huber, 2020. "Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8746, CESifo.
- Huber, Kilian, 2020. "Are bigger banks better? Firm-level evidence from Germany," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118853, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Kilian Huber, 2020. "Are bigger banks better? Firm-level evidence from Germany," CEP Discussion Papers dp1735, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Kilian Huber, 2020. "Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany," Working Papers 2020-172, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
- Petkov, Ivan, 2023. "Small business lending and the bank-branch network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
- Roman Horvath, 2020. "Natural Catastrophes and Financial Development: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers IES 2020/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2020.
- Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera & Andriy Tsapin, 2018.
"Shock Contagion, Asset Quality and Lending Behavior,"
Working Papers
01/2018, National Bank of Ukraine.
- Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2018. "Shock contagion, asset quality and lending behavior," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
- Shi, Yining, 2022. "Financial liberalization and house prices: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
- Erel, Isil & Liebersohn, Jack, 2022. "Can FinTech reduce disparities in access to finance? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 90-118.
- Mercy Berman DeMenno, 2023. "Environmental sustainability and financial stability: can macroprudential stress testing measure and mitigate climate-related systemic financial risk?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 445-473, December.
- Noth, Felix & Schüwer, Ulrich, 2023. "Natural disasters and bank stability: Evidence from the U.S. financial system," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
- Ruchi Avtar & Kristian S. Blickle & Rajashri Chakrabarti & Janavi Janakiraman & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2023.
"Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Inequality in the United States,"
Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(1), pages 1-39, June.
- Ruchi Avtar & Kristian S. Blickle & Rajashri Chakrabarti & Janavi Janakiraman & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2021. "Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Inequality in the United States," Staff Reports 991, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Cuñat, Vicente & Cvijanovic, Dragana & Yuan, Kathy, 2018.
"Within-bank spillovers of real estate shocks,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
87374, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Vicente Cuñat & Dragana Cvijanović & Kathy Yuan, 2018. "Within-Bank Spillovers of Real Estate Shocks," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 157-193.
- Rubio-Andrés, Mercedes & Ramos-González, Mª del Mar & Sastre-Castillo, Miguel Ángel & Gutiérrez-Broncano, Santiago, 2023. "Stakeholder pressure and innovation capacity of SMEs in the COVID-19 pandemic: Mediating and multigroup analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
- Smolyansky, Michael, 2019. "Policy externalities and banking integration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 118-139.
- Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin, 2021.
"High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
- Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin, 2020. "High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather," Bank of England working papers 856, Bank of England.
- Li, Jie & An, Yahui & Wang, Lidan & Zhang, Yongjie, 2022. "Combating the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of disaster experience," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
- Sebastian Doerr & Thomas Drechsel & Donggyu Lee, 2021. "Income inequality, financial intermediation, and small firms," BIS Working Papers 944, Bank for International Settlements.
- Brei, Michael & Mohan, Preeya & Strobl, Eric, 2019.
"The impact of natural disasters on the banking sector: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Caribbean,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 232-239.
- Michael Brei & Preeya Mohan & Eric Strobl, 2019. "The impact of natural disasters on the banking sector: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Caribbean," Post-Print hal-02107599, HAL.
- Rappoport, Veronica & Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi, 2020.
"Trade Shocks and Credit Reallocation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
14792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefano Federico & Fadi Hassan & Veronica Rappoport, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1649, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi & Rappoport-Redondo, Veronica, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- M. Ali Choudhary & Anil K. Jain, 2017.
"Finance and Inequality : The Distributional Impacts of Bank Credit Rationing,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
1211, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Choudhary, M. Ali & Jain, Anil, 2022. "Finance and inequality: The distributional impacts of bank credit rationing," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
- Dimas Mateus Fazio & Thiago Christiano Silva, 2020. "Housing Collateral Reform and Economic Reallocation," Working Papers Series 522, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Victor Aguirregabiria & Robert Clark & Hui Wang, 2019.
"The Geographic Flow of Bank Funding and Access to Credit: Branch Networks, Local Synergies, and Competition,"
Working Papers
tecipa-639, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Aguirregabiria, Victor & Clark, Robert & Wang, Hui, 2019. "The Geographic Flow of Bank Funding and Access to Credit: Branch Networks, Local Synergies, and Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 13741, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dursun-de Neef, H. Özlem, 2023. "Bank specialization, mortgage lending and house prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
- Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Robert Clark & Hui Wang & Victor Aguirregabiria, 2017. "The Geographic Flow Of Bank Funding And Access To Credit: Branch Networks And Local-market Competition," Working Paper 1402, Economics Department, Queen's University.
- Yavuz Arslan & Ahmet Degerli & Gazi Kabaş, 2021.
"Unintended Consequences of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: The Role of Banks,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2021-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Yavuz Arslan & Ahmet Degerli & Gazi Kabaş, 2019. "Unintended consequences of unemployment insurance benefits: the role of banks," BIS Working Papers 795, Bank for International Settlements.
- Yavuz Arslan & Ahmet Degerli & Gazi Kabas, 2019. "Unintended Consequences of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: The Role of Banks," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-44, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Rehbein, Oliver, 2018. "Flooded through the back door: Firm-level effects of banks' lending shifts," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Hua, Renhai & Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Qin, 2023. "The impact of natural disaster risk on the return of agricultural futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
- MD Gyasuddin Ansari & Rudra Sensarma, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Liquidity Shock and Bank lending: The Case of Currency Demonetization in India," Working papers 575, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
- Ivan T. Ivanov & Marco Macchiavelli & João A. C. Santos, 2022. "Bank lending networks and the propagation of natural disasters," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 903-927, September.
- Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2014. "How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis?," Working Papers 2014-19, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- João Granja & Christian Leuz & Raghuram Rajan, 2018.
"Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
25196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- João Granja & Christian Leuz & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2022. "Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1259-1324, April.
- Duqi, Andi & McGowan, Danny & Onali, Enrico & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2021. "Natural disasters and economic growth: The role of banking market structure," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
- Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
- Hua Song & Yudong Yang & Zheng Tao, 2020. "How different types of financial service providers support small- and medium- enterprises under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic: from the perspective of expectancy theory," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27, December.
- Koetter, Michael & Noth, Felix & Rehbein, Oliver, 2019.
"Borrowers under water! Rare disasters, regional banks, and recovery lending,"
IWH Discussion Papers
31/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2019.
- Koetter, Michael & Noth, Felix & Rehbein, Oliver, 2020. "Borrowers under water! Rare disasters, regional banks, and recovery lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
- Braun, Alexander & Braun, Julia & Weigert, Florian, 2023. "Extreme weather risk and the cost of equity," CFR Working Papers 23-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- James R. Brown & Matthew T. Gustafson & Ivan T. Ivanov, 2021. "Weathering Cash Flow Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1731-1772, August.
- Salih Fendoğlu & Eda Gülşen & José-Luis Peydró, 2019.
"Global liquidity and impairment of local monetary policy,"
Economics Working Papers
1680, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Peydró, José-Luis & Fendoglu, Salih & Gulsen, Eda, 2020. "Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fendoglu, Salih & Gulsen, Eda & Peydró, José-Luis, 2019. "Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy," EconStor Preprints 216794, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Salih Fendo?lu & Eda Gül?en & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1131, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Wan-Li Zhang & Chun-Ping Chang & Yang Xuan, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on bank performance: What’s the mediating role of natural disasters?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1913-1952, August.
- Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2023. "Trading and liquidity in the catastrophe bond market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 283-328, June.
- Doerr, Sebastian & Schaz, Philipp, 2021. "Geographic diversification and bank lending during crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 768-788.
- Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Dalida Kadyrzhanova & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2017.
"Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy,"
IMF Working Papers
2017/234, International Monetary Fund.
- Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Dalida Kadyrzhanova & Camelia Minoiu & Lev Ratnovski, 2021. "Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 5036-5076.
- Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Minoiu, Camelia & Ratnovski, Lev & Kadyrzhanova, Dalida, 2020. "Bank lending in the knowledge economy," Working Paper Series 2429, European Central Bank.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Dalida Kadyrzhanova & Camelia Minoiu & Lev Ratnovski, 2020. "Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Kadyrzhanova, Dalida & Ratnovski, Lev, 2018. "Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 12994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bayangos, Veronica B. & Cachuela, Rafael Augusto D. & Prado, Fatima Lourdes E. Del, 2021. "Impact of extreme weather episodes on the Philippine banking sector – Evidence using branch-level supervisory data," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
- Pauline Avril & Gregory Levieuge & Camelia Turcu, 2023. "Do bankers want their umbrellas back when it rains? Evidence from typhoons in China," Working Papers 2023.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
- Benincasa, Emanuela & Betz, Frank & Gattini, Luca, 2022.
"How do firms cope with losses from extreme weather events?,"
EIB Working Papers
2022/10, European Investment Bank (EIB).
- Benincasa, Emanuela & Betz, Frank & Gattini, Luca, 2024. "How do firms cope with losses from extreme weather events?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
- Shan Ge & Michael S. Weisbach, 2019.
"The Role of Financial Conditions in Portfolio Choices: The Case of Insurers,"
NBER Working Papers
25677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ge, Shan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2021. "The role of financial conditions in portfolio choices: The case of insurers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 803-830.
- Pauline AVRIL & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Camélia TURCU, 2021.
"Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?,"
LEO Working Papers / DR LEO
2913, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
- Pauline Avril & Gregory Levieuge & Camelia Turcu, 2021. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," Working Papers 2021.13, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
- Avril Pauline & Levieuge Grégory & Turcu Camelia, 2022. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," Working papers 874, Banque de France.
- Xu, Minhong & Xu, Yilan, 2023. "Do non-damaging earthquakes shake mortgage lenders' risk perception?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
- Kristle Romero Cortes & Yuliya Demyanyk & Lei Li & Elena Loutskina & Philip E. Strahan, 2018.
"Stress Tests and Small Business Lending,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1802, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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"Income Inequality and Job Creation,"
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1021, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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"'By a Silken Thread': regional banking integration and credit reallocation during Japan’s Lost Decade,"
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102, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2021.
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"What drives banks' geographic expansion? The role of locally non-diversifiable risk,"
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"Geographic Diversification and Banks’ Funding Costs,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2657-2678, May.
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- Kristian S. Blickle & Sarah Ngo Hamerling & Donald P. Morgan, 2021. "How Bad Are Weather Disasters for Banks?," Staff Reports 990, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ricardo Correa & Ai He & Christoph Herpfer & Ugur Lel, 2022. "The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1345, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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- OGURA Yoshiaki & NGUYEN Duc Giang & NGUYEN Thu Ha, 2022. "Floods and Loan Reallocation: New evidence," Discussion papers 22088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Bos, Jaap & Li, Runliang, 2017. "Understanding the Trembles of Nature: How Do Disaster Experiences Shape Bank Risk Taking?," Research Memorandum 033, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
- Noth, Felix & Rehbein, Oliver, 2017. "Badly hurt? Natural disasters and direct firm effects," IWH Discussion Papers 25/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Dunz, Nepomuk & Emambakhsh, Tina & Hennig, Tristan & Kaijser, Michiel & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Parisi, Laura & Salleo, Carmelo, 2021. "ECB’s economy-wide climate stress test," Occasional Paper Series 281, European Central Bank.
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"The Bright and Dark Side of Financial Support from Local and Central Banks after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from the Great Kanto Earthquake, 1923 Japan,"
Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series
2020-001, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
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- Tetsuji Okazaki & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2021. "The Bright and Dark Side of Financial Support from Local and Central Banks after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from the Great Kanto Earthquake, 1923 Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-511, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Stefano Federico & Fadi Hassan & Veronica Rappoport, 2020. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1289, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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"Bank loan supply during crises: the importance of geographic diversification,"
ECON - Working Papers
288, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Mar 2019.
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- Henry He Huang & Joseph Kerstein & Chong Wang & Feng (Harry) Wu, 2022. "Firm climate risk, risk management, and bank loan financing," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(13), pages 2849-2880, December.
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- Janet Gao & Shan Ge & Lawrence D. W. Schmidt & Cristina Tello-Trillo, 2023. "How Do Health Insurance Costs Affect Firm Labor Composition and Technology Investment?," Working Papers 23-47, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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"Capital Destruction and Economic Growth: The Effects of Sherman's March, 1850–1920,"
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 301-342, October.
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"No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
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Cited by:
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"Forecasting Global Equity Indices Using Large Bayesian VARs,"
Department of Economics Working Paper Series
184, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Florian Huber & Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2017. "Forecasting Global Equity Indices Using Large Bayesian Vars," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 288-308, July.
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"Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
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- Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2013. "Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-064, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Shin, Minchul & Zhong, Molin, 2017. "Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 373-389.
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- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014.
"Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions,"
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1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Cited by:
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015.
"Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
- Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza, 2014. "Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Bańbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 1733, European Central Bank.
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"Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
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- Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-RamÃrez, Juan Francisco, 2018.
"Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2021. "Structural scenario analysis with SVARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 798-815.
- Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2020. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," EMF Research Papers 32, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016.
"Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
- Berge, Travis J. & Chang, Andrew C. & Sinha, Nitish R., 2019.
"Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1627-1635.
- Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha, 2019. "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Mehmet Pasaogullari, 2015. "Forecasts from Reduced-form Models under the Zero-Lower-Bound Constraint," Working Papers (Old Series) 1512, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
- Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019.
"Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1658-1668.
- Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
- Craig S. Hakkio & Jun Nie, 2014. "Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 29-51.
- Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014.
"Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?,"
Working Paper
2014/13, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Cited by:
- Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017.
"Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
- Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," BCAM Working Papers 1603, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
- Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails with an Application to Inflation Forecasting," EMF Research Papers 13, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 75424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nico Petz, 2021.
"Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty,"
Papers
2112.01995, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Petz, Nico, 2022. "Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 17646, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017.
"Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
- Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "GDP Forecast Accuracy During Recessions," Working Papers 20-06, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
- Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
- Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016.
"Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity,"
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hal-04141569, HAL.
- Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-40, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Dalibor Stevanovic & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-36, CIRANO.
- Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-RamÃrez, Juan Francisco, 2018.
"Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2021. "Structural scenario analysis with SVARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 798-815.
- Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2020. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," EMF Research Papers 32, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014.
"Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions,"
Working Papers
2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019.
"Large time‐varying parameter VARs: A nonparametric approach,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1027-1049, November.
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Cited by:
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"The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
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"Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR,"
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"A Time Varying DSGE Model with Financial Frictions,"
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- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
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"Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo MATLAB Toolbox,"
Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i03).
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Cited by:
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020.
"On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
20-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," CAMA Working Papers 2020-27, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2020-03, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2023. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1844-1864, November.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011.
"Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size,"
Working Papers
11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
- Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "It’s not just for inflation: The usefulness of the median CPI in BVAR forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1303, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Isao Ishida & Virmantas Kvedaras, 2015. "Modeling Autoregressive Processes with Moving-Quantiles-Implied Nonlinearity," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-53, January.
- Mayer, Walter J. & Liu, Feng & Dang, Xin, 2017. "Improving the power of the Diebold–Mariano–West test for least squares predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 618-626.
- Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2023. "Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
- T. S. McElroy, 2016. "Nonnested model comparisons for time series," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 103(4), pages 905-914.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Advances in forecast evaluation,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Cited by:
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
- Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane & Lee, Thomas K, 2014.
"Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
10075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2014. "Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?," Staff Working Papers 14-46, Bank of Canada.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 33-43.
- Magdalena Grothe & Aidan Meyler, 2018.
"Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?,"
International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 171-188, January.
- Grothe, Magdalena & Meyler, Aidan, 2015. "Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?," MPRA Paper 66982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Meyler, Aidan & Grothe, Magdalena, 2015. "Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?," Working Paper Series 1865, European Central Bank.
- Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2020. "Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed‐smoothing asymptotics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 391-409, June.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013.
"Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2010. "Oil and US GDP: A real-time out-of-sample examination," Working Paper 2010/18, Norges Bank.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 449-463, March.
- Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2011.
"Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?,"
Working Papers
11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2015. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2018. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 43-92, September.
- Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2017. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," Working Papers 17-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone & Alessia Paccagnini & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2021.
"Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts,"
CAMA Working Papers
2021-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Coroneo, Laura & Iacone, Fabrizio & Paccagnini, Alessia & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2023. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 606-622.
- Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone & Alessia Paccagnini & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2020. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," Discussion Papers 20/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019.
"Interest Rates Under Falling Stars,"
Working Paper Series
2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011.
"Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size,"
Working Papers
11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
- Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Franc{c}ois Lafond & Aimee Gotway Bailey & Jan David Bakker & Dylan Rebois & Rubina Zadourian & Patrick McSharry & J. Doyne Farmer, 2017.
"How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts,"
Papers
1703.05979, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
- Lafond, François & Bailey, Aimee Gotway & Bakker, Jan David & Rebois, Dylan & Zadourian, Rubina & McSharry, Patrick & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2018. "How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 104-117.
- Andrea Carriero & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2016.
"A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods,"
EMF Research Papers
10, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
- Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2023. "The sum of all fears: Forecasting international returns using option-implied risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Zhu, Yinchu & Timmermann, Allan, 2022. "Conditional rotation between forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 329-347.
- Francis X. Diebold, 2012.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
12-035, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold, 2012. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," NBER Working Papers 18391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold, 2015. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-1, January.
- Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012.
"Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2012/10, European University Institute.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," CREATES Research Papers 2012-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015.
"Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models,"
CReMFi Discussion Papers
3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
- Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in emerging markets: An evaluation of alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1082-1104.
- Carlos Medel, 2015.
"Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
769, Central Bank of Chile.
- Medel, Carlos, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," MPRA Paper 62609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
- Hinterlang, Natascha, 2020. "Predicting monetary policy using artificial neural networks," Discussion Papers 44/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2017.
"Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 833-847.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Emily J. Whitehouse, 2017. "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," Discussion Papers 17/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Jin, Sainan & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2017.
"Robust Forecast Comparison,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(6), pages 1306-1351, December.
- Sainan Jin & Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2015. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Departmental Working Papers 201502, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Fabian Krueger & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015.
"Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1439, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
- Krüger, Fabian & Clark, Todd E. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Fabian Kr�ger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers No 8/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Michael W. McCracken, 2020.
"Diverging Tests of Equal Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1753-1754, July.
- Michael W. McCracken, 2019. "Diverging Tests of Equal Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2019-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 09 Mar 2020.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017.
"Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2015. "Inside the crystal ball: New approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump," CFS Working Paper Series 500, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.
- Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane & Lee, Thomas K, 2015. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CEPR Discussion Papers 10362, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hanif, Muhammad Nadim & Malik, Muhammad Jahanzeb, 2015.
"Evaluating Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan,"
MPRA Paper
66843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
- Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2020.
"Out of sample predictability in predictive regressions with many predictor candidates,"
UC3M Working papers. Economics
31554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa.
- Jesus Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2023. "Out of Sample Predictability in Predictive Regressions with Many Predictor Candidates," Papers 2302.02866, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
- Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2020.
"Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices – You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails,"
Working Papers
2020:13, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Tamás Kiss & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2021. "Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices—You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, October.
- Papantonis, Ioannis & Rompolis, Leonidas & Tzavalis, Elias, 2023. "Improving variance forecasts: The role of Realized Variance features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1221-1237.
- Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013.
"Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
- Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Johanna F. Ziegel & Fabian Kruger & Alexander Jordan & Fernando Fasciati, 2017. "Murphy Diagrams: Forecast Evaluation of Expected Shortfall," Papers 1705.04537, arXiv.org.
- Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2020. "A Novel Approach to Predictive Accuracy Testing in Nested Environments," Papers 2008.08387, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
- Anwen Yin, 2022. "Does the kitchen‐sink model work forecasting the equity premium?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 223-247, March.
- Rodrigo Sekkel, 2014.
"Balance Sheets of Financial Intermediaries: Do They Forecast Economic Activity?,"
Staff Working Papers
14-40, Bank of Canada.
- Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2015. "Balance sheets of financial intermediaries: Do they forecast economic activity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 263-275.
- Mayer, Walter J. & Liu, Feng & Dang, Xin, 2017. "Improving the power of the Diebold–Mariano–West test for least squares predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 618-626.
- Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2014.
"Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2012. "Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle," Working Papers (Old Series) 1217, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2015. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 12-13, January.
- Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
- Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Predicting the exchange rate path. The importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts," Discussion Papers 934, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2021.
"On using predictive-ability tests in the selection of time-series prediction models: A Monte Carlo evaluation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 445-460.
- Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2018. "On Using Predictive-ability Tests in the Selection of Time-series Prediction Models: A Monte Carlo Evaluation," Economics Series 341, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011.
"A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1134, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Hinterlang, Natascha, 2019. "Predicting Monetary Policy Using Artificial Neural Networks," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203503, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020.
"Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model,"
OECD Statistics Working Papers
2020/01, OECD Publishing.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," PSE Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
- Valentina Corradi & Sainan Jin & Norman R. Swanson, 2023. "Robust forecast superiority testing with an application to assessing pools of expert forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 596-622, June.
- Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2015.
"Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?,"
The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 293-341.
- Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2014. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Working Paper series 05_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Michael W. McCracken, 2020. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability: Existence, Size, and Power," Working Papers 2020-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Boot, Tom & Pick, Andreas, 2020. "Does modeling a structural break improve forecast accuracy?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 35-59.
- Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler, 2018.
"NKPC-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Time-Varying Trend,"
Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos
2018-05, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
- Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Kerry Patterson & Fabio Rumler, 2014. "The Predictive Performance of Fundamental Inflation Concepts: An Application to the Euro Area and the United States," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2014-03, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
- McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Rumler, Fabio, 2020. "Inflation forecasting using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a time-varying trend," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 383-393.
- Guizzardi, Andrea & Pons, Flavio Maria Emanuele & Angelini, Giovanni & Ranieri, Ercolino, 2021. "Big data from dynamic pricing: A smart approach to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1049-1060.
- Duffee, Gregory, 2013.
"Forecasting Interest Rates,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426,
Elsevier.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2020. "Predicting bond return predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2020-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Cosemans, Mathijs & Frehen, Rik & Schotman, Peter & Bauer, Rob, 2016.
"Estimating security betas using prior information based on firm fundamentals,"
Other publications TiSEM
f0f91c05-b59e-454c-a102-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Mathijs Cosemans & Rik Frehen & Peter C. Schotman & Rob Bauer, 2016. "Estimating Security Betas Using Prior Information Based on Firm Fundamentals," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 1072-1112.
- Yin, Anwen, 2015. "Forecasting and model averaging with structural breaks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005727, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Shahzad Ahmad & Farooq Pasha, 2015. "A Pragmatic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis I: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 1-42.
- Filip Stanek, 2021. "Optimal Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation under Stationarity," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp712, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Nicolas S. Magner & Nicolás Hardy & Tiago Ferreira & Jaime F. Lavin, 2023. "“Agree to Disagree”: Forecasting Stock Market Implied Volatility Using Financial Report Tone Disagreement Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, March.
- Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2015.
"Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
10419, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2016. "Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-153.
- Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
- Pablo Pincheira & Nicolás Hardy & Felipe Muñoz, 2021. "“Go Wild for a While!”: A New Test for Forecast Evaluation in Nested Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-28, September.
- Arai, Natsuki, 2014. "Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 12-19.
- Yin, Anwen, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
- Nima Nonejad, 2022. "New Findings Regarding the Out-of-Sample Predictive Impact of the Price of Crude Oil on the United States Industrial Production," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 1-35, March.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017.
"Adaptive Hierarchical Priors for High-Dimensional Vector Autoregessions,"
Working Papers
115, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Adaptive hierarchical priors for high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 241-271.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2018. "Adaptive Hierarchical Priors for High-Dimensional Vector Autoregressions," Working Paper series 18-21, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Jan J.J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008.
"Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Working Papers
624, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
- Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Christian Hutter, 2020.
"A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany,"
Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-10, December.
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"The Usefulness of the Median CPI in Bayesian VARs Used for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2016-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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"Mind the gap!—A monetarist view of the open-economy Phillips curve,"
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"Model uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive models,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-131.
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- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper series 15-35, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Model uncertainty in panel vector autoregressive models," Working Papers 1408, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-011, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Model uncertainty in panel vector autoregressive models," Working Papers 2014_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper series 39_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020.
"Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
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"Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility,"
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- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Yu, Xuewen, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
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"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
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1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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"Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR,"
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"Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
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1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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"An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Multiple Structural Change in Multivariate Time Series,"
MPRA Paper
79211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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"Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
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Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
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"Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs,"
Working Paper series
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- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," MPRA Paper 38591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Working Papers 2012_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
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- Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
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"Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions,"
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- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers 2020_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 828-844, October.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8282, CESifo.
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"No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
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- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "No-Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 20-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2018.
"News and Uncertainty Shocks,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
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- Danilo Cascaldi‐Garcia & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2021. "News and Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 779-811, June.
- Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2016. "News and Uncertainty Shocks," EMF Research Papers 12, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021.
"Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions,"
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- Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Paper Series 2453, European Central Bank.
- Andrea Carriero & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2016.
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EMF Research Papers
10, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
- Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014.
"Large Bayesian VARMAs,"
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- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 40_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-06, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2015. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 15-36, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2016. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 374-390.
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- Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "It’s not just for inflation: The usefulness of the median CPI in BVAR forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1303, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
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"Dynamic effects of credit shocks in a data-rich environment,"
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- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanović, 2020. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 272-284, April.
- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," Cahiers de recherche 1324, CIRPEE.
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- Damian Stelmasiak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2016. "Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 21-42, March.
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- Tomasz Woźniak, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(3), pages 365-380, September.
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- Hauzenberger Niko & Huber Florian & Pfarrhofer Michael & Zörner Thomas O., 2021.
"Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-17, April.
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- Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Zörner, Thomas O., 2018. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Working Papers in Economics 2018-3, University of Salzburg.
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- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
- Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-002, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E., 2012. "Prior selection for vector autoregressions," Working Paper Series 1494, European Central Bank.
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- Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
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"Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data,"
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"Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast,"
ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics
2012-591, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Joshua C.C. Chan, 2013. "Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast," CAMA Working Papers 2013-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Chan, Joshua C.C., 2013. "Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 162-172.
- Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014.
"Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails,"
Working Papers
720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Petrella, Ivan & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails," Bank of England working papers 577, Bank of England.
- Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1409, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1052, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Advances in forecast evaluation,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
- Sohei Kaihatsu & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Has Trend Inflation Shifted?: An Empirical Analysis with a Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-3, Bank of Japan.
- Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "Is unemployment helpful in understanding inflation?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q IV), pages 5-26.
- Henzel, Steffen R., 2013. "Fitting survey expectations and uncertainty about trend inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 172-185.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010.
"Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons,"
Working Papers
2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Cited by:
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011.
"Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size,"
Working Papers
11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
- Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010.
"Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & West, Kenneth D., 2009. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Working Paper Series 1030, European Central Bank.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011.
"Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size,"
Working Papers
11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010.
"Testing for unconditional predictive ability,"
Working Papers
2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Cited by:
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013.
"Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2010. "Oil and US GDP: A real-time out-of-sample examination," Working Paper 2010/18, Norges Bank.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 449-463, March.
- Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014.
"Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: el caso colombiano,"
Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
- Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: El caso colombiano," Borradores de Economia 821, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2012.
"Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Common drifting volatility in large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers (Old Series) 1206, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 375-390, July.
- Andrea CARRIERO & Todd E. CLARK & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/08, European University Institute.
- Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011.
"A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1134, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Advances in forecast evaluation,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
- Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: El caso colombiano," Borradores de Economia 11252, Banco de la Republica.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013.
"Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 09-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Working Papers 2009-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Cited by:
- Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015.
"Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
- Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," IAB-Discussion Paper 201317, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2012. "In-sample tests of predictive ability: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 1-14.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach," Working Papers 2009-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020.
"On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
20-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," CAMA Working Papers 2020-27, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2020-03, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2023. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1844-1864, November.
- Johanna Posch & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Semi‐Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 145-162, March.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013.
"Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2010. "Oil and US GDP: A real-time out-of-sample examination," Working Paper 2010/18, Norges Bank.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 449-463, March.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Korobilis, Dimitris & Lee, Thomas K., 2020.
"Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
14580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," NBER Working Papers 27001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers 2020_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 828-844, October.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8282, CESifo.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014.
"No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021. "No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "No-Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 20-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012.
"Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2012. "Do oil prices help forecast U.S. real GDP? the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert Vigfusson, 2011.
"Forecasting the Price of Oil,"
Staff Working Papers
11-15, Bank of Canada.
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
- Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015.
"Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
- Mohr, Matthias & Maurin, Laurent & Guérin, Pierre, 2011. "Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination," Working Paper Series 1384, European Central Bank.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019.
"The Global Component of Inflation Volatility,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
- Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "The global component of inflation volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1170, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andr� K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017.
"Residential investment and recession predictability,"
Working Papers
No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
- Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019. "Residential investment and recession predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
- Garratt, Anthony & Mise, Emi, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 32-40.
- Karol Szafranek, 2017.
"Bagged artificial neural networks in forecasting inflation: An extensive comparison with current modelling frameworks,"
NBP Working Papers
262, Narodowy Bank Polski.
- Szafranek, Karol, 2019. "Bagged neural networks for forecasting Polish (low) inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1042-1059.
- Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Francesco Ravazzolo & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015.
"Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different,"
Working Paper
2015/05, Norges Bank.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
- Hilde C. Bj�rnland & Francesco Ravazzolo & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different," Working Papers No 1/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Hilde C. Bjornland & Francesco Ravazzolo & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different," CAMA Working Papers 2016-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014.
"Density forecasts with MIDAS models,"
Working Paper
2014/10, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Density Forecasts With Midas Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 783-801, June.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Density forecasts with MIDAS models," Working Papers No 3/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2012.
"Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Common drifting volatility in large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers (Old Series) 1206, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 375-390, July.
- Andrea CARRIERO & Todd E. CLARK & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/08, European University Institute.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2020.
"A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance,"
Working Paper series
20-27, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2021. "A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-016/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Blasques, F. & Koopman, S.J. & Mallee, M. & Zhang, Z., 2016. "Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 405-417.
- Robert Gausden & Mohammad Hasan, 2022. "A reappraisal of Katona’s adaptive theory of consumer behaviour using U.K. data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(2), pages 122-143, March.
- Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021.
"Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances,"
Working Papers
2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
- Mayer, Walter J. & Liu, Feng & Dang, Xin, 2017. "Improving the power of the Diebold–Mariano–West test for least squares predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 618-626.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
- Kichian, Maral & Rumler, Fabio, 2014. "Forecasting Canadian inflation: A semi-structural NKPC approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 183-191.
- Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Predicting the exchange rate path. The importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts," Discussion Papers 934, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011.
"A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1134, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- In Choi & Hanbat Jeong, 2020. "Differencing versus nondifferencing in factor‐based forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 728-750, September.
- Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2016.
"The implications of liquidity expansion in China for the US dollar,"
Globalization Institute Working Papers
264, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2016. "The implications of liquidity expansion in China for the US dollar," CAMA Working Papers 2016-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald. A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2016. "The implications of liquidity expansion in China for the US dollar," Working Papers 2016-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
- Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
- Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021.
"A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
- Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Benjamin K Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2018. "A time series model of interest rates with the effective lower bound," BIS Working Papers 715, Bank for International Settlements.
- Nicolas S. Magner & Nicolás Hardy & Tiago Ferreira & Jaime F. Lavin, 2023. "“Agree to Disagree”: Forecasting Stock Market Implied Volatility Using Financial Report Tone Disagreement Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, March.
- Yi-Ting Chen & Chu-An Liu, 2021.
"Model Averaging for Asymptotically Optimal Combined Forecasts,"
IEAS Working Paper : academic research
21-A002, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Chen, Yi-Ting & Liu, Chu-An, 2023. "Model averaging for asymptotically optimal combined forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 592-607.
- Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva, 2015. "A Kolmogorov-Smirnov Based Test for Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Two Sets of Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, August.
- Arai, Natsuki, 2014. "Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 12-19.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
- Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function," IAB-Discussion Paper 201416, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2021. "Predicting the VIX and the volatility risk premium: The role of short-run funding spreads Volatility Factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 366-398.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Advances in forecast evaluation,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christian Hutter, 2020.
"A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany,"
Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-10, December.
- Hutter, Christian, 2020. "A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(1), pages 1-4.
- Michael W. McCracken, 2019. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability: Some Simulation Evidence," Working Papers 2019-11, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015.
"Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance,"
Working Paper
2015/12, Norges Bank.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
- Oguzhan Akgun & Alain Pirotte & Giovanni Urga & Zhenlin Yang, 2020. "Equal Predictive Ability Tests Based on Panel Data with Applications to OECD and IMF Forecasts," Papers 2003.02803, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
- Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 101-123, February.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2017.
"Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: a MIDASSO approach,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(13), pages 1326-1343, March.
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- Filip Staněk, 2023. "Optimal out‐of‐sample forecast evaluation under stationarity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2249-2279, December.
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Research Working Paper
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- Todd E. Clark, 2009. "Is the Great Moderation over? an empirical analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q IV), pages 5-42.
- Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Short-run price forecast performance of individual and composite models for 496 corn cash markets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(14), pages 2593-2620, October.
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"Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
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- O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010.
"Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles,"
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"In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach,"
Research Working Paper
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Cited by:
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"The dollar, bank leverage and real economic activity: an evolving relationship,"
BIS Working Papers
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"Bagging Weak Predictors,"
CREATES Research Papers
2014-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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"Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
81869, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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"Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
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"Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures,"
MPRA Paper
80496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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MPRA Paper
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- Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Research Working Paper
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- Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010. "Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
Cited by:
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"The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects,"
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- Hilde C. Bj�rnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2018. "The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects," Working Papers No 8/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Ahmed Jamal Pirzada, 2017. "Energy Price Uncertainty and Decreasing Pass-through to Core Inflation," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 17/681, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 30 May 2017.
- Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020.
"Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
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- Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts," Working Papers 2025, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2020. "Oil prices, gasoline prices and inflation expectations: A new model and new facts," CFS Working Paper Series 645, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Janet L. Yellen, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy : A speech at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, September 24, 2015," Speech 863, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Onorante, Luca & Momferatou, Daphne, 2010.
"Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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"Inflation, Oil Price Volatility and Monetary Policy,"
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"Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis,"
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-55.
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"Monetary Regimes and External Shocks Reaction: Empirical Investigations on Eastern European Economies,"
Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(66), pages 63-81, December.
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"The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
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- Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.
- Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," Working Papers 2116, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CEPR Discussion Papers 16776, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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"Forecasting economic time series using score-driven dynamic models with mixed-data sampling,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1735-1747.
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"A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
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- Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Working Papers 2224, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021.
"Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: A Threshold VAR Approach," Working Papers 20-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark, 2009. "Is the Great Moderation over? an empirical analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q IV), pages 5-42.
- Jeremy B. Rudd, 2022. "The Anatomy of Single-Digit Inflation in the 1960s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Baoping Shang, 2016. "What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low: Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/124, International Monetary Fund.
- SEKINE Atsushi & TSURUGA Takayuki, 2016.
"Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross-Country Analysis,"
ESRI Discussion paper series
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- Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation:A Cross-Country Analysis," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 038, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
- Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2017. "Effects of commodity price shocks on inflation: A cross-country analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2017-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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- Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2018. "Effects of commodity price shocks on inflation: a cross-country analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 1108-1135.
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- Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2013. "Alternative inflation hedging strategies for ALM," MPRA Paper 43755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matthew Klepacz, 2018. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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"The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations,"
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- Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2008. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-59, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2012. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-46, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," Working Paper series 14_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-47, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2012. "The dynamics of UK and US inflation expectations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3120-3133.
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"Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation,"
The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
- Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Core Inflation," FEDS Notes 2019-04-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Oil price pass-through into core inflation," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 405, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Core Inflation," FEDS Notes 2017-10-19-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Core Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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"The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence,"
Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
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- Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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"Core Inflation and Trend Inflation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 770-784, October.
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"Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 174-177.
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- Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Lu, Yang & Wang, Jian, 2020. "Spatial linkage of volatility spillovers and its explanation across G20 stock markets: A network framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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"Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations,"
CAMA Working Papers
2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
- Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.
- Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
- Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2021. "Inflation synchronization among the G7and China: The important role of oil inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
- Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2017. "Volatility of commodity futures prices and market-implied inflation expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 133-141.
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"Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations,"
Research Working Paper
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Cited by:
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"Measuring The Slowly Evolving Trend In Us Inflation With Professional Forecasts,"
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1316, Economics Department, Queen's University.
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- James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2014. "Measuring the Slowly Evolving Trend in US Inflation with Professional Forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2014-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Virginia Queijo von Heideken & Ferre De Graeve, 2012. "Fiscal policy in contemporary DSGE models," 2012 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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"Monetary policy and the term structure of Inflation expectations with information frictions,"
Working Papers
daleconwp2020-07, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
- McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Scott Davis, 2012.
"The Effect of Commodity Price Shocks on Underlying Inflation: The Role of Central Bank Credibility,"
Working Papers
272012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- J. Scott Davis, 2012. "The effect of commodity price shocks on underlying inflation: the role of central bank credibility," Globalization Institute Working Papers 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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- Antonello D’Agostino, 2015.
"Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects,"
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- D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2015. "Expectation-driven cycles: time-varying effects," Working Paper Series 1776, European Central Bank.
- caterina mendicino & Antonello DÁgostino, 2016. "Expectation-driven cycles: Time-Varying Effects," EcoMod2016 9350, EcoMod.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2014. "Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects," MPRA Paper 53607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Granville, Brigitte & Zeng, Ning, 2019. "Time variation in inflation persistence: New evidence from modelling US inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 30-39.
- Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2012.
"Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Common drifting volatility in large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers (Old Series) 1206, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 375-390, July.
- Andrea CARRIERO & Todd E. CLARK & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/08, European University Institute.
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"The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility,"
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"The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
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"Confidence Cycles and Liquidity Hoarding,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 281-320, September.
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"Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Berge, Travis J., 2018. "Understanding survey-based inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801.
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"The Time Varying Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Real Output,"
WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS
201203, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
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Research Working Paper
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- Aleksei Netšunajev & Lars Winkelmann, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- J. Scott Davis, 2012. "Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 117, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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"Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 950-967, December.
- Elmar Mertens, 2011. "Measuring the level and uncertainty of trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Benjamin Wong, 2015.
"Do inflation expectations propagate the inflationary impact of real oil price shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan survey,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2015/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Inflation Expectations and How it Explains the Inflationary Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," CAMA Working Papers 2014-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
- Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Historical decompositions for nonlinear vector autoregression models," CAMA Working Papers 2017-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Functional Shocks to Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates and Their Macroeconomic Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 10656, CESifo.
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"Fitting observed inflation expectations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
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- Ekaterina V. Peneva & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2015. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Mazumder, Sandeep, 2018. "Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 202-213.
- Doh, Taeyoung & Smith, A. Lee, 2022. "A new approach to integrating expectations into VAR models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 24-43.
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- Monica Jain, 2018. "Sluggish Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-39, Bank of Canada.
- Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008.
"An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations,"
Research Working Paper
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Cited by:
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"A new model of trend inflation,"
MPRA Paper
39496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Joshua Chan & Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2012. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Working Papers 1202, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012. "A New Model Of Trend Inflation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-12, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Joshua C C Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M Potter, 2012. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2012-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 94-106, January.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2018.
"Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?,"
NBER Working Papers
24788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2018. "Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?," Working Papers 2019-06, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2019. "Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gabriele Galati & Peter Heemeijer & Richhild Moessner, 2011. "How do inflation expectations form? New insights from a high-frequency survey," BIS Working Papers 349, Bank for International Settlements.
- Klodiana Istrefi & Anamaria Piloiu, 2013. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trust and Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4294, CESifo.
- Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011.
"Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
Working Papers
1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Onorante, Luca & Koop, Gary, 2012. "Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 1422, European Central Bank.
- Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
- Mazumder, Sandeep, 2018. "Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 202-213.
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"Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations,"
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- Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012.
"A new model of trend inflation,"
MPRA Paper
39496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007.
"Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Cited by:
- Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022.
"A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
- Luigi Longo & Massimo Riccaboni & Armando Rungi, 2021. "A Neural Network Ensemble Approach for GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 02/2021, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Mar 2021.
- Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010.
"Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles,"
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- Ravazzolo Francesco & Vahey Shaun P., 2014. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-15, September.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles," CAMA Working Papers 2010-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2017.
"An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Multiple Structural Change in Multivariate Time Series,"
MPRA Paper
79211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2018. "An efficient Bayesian approach to multiple structural change in multivariate time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 251-270, March.
- Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun Vahey, 2008.
"Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2008/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
- Anne-Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Paper 2008/01, Norges Bank.
- Hilde Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Christie Smith & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2010.
"Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination,"
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- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Gerdrup, Karsten & Jore, Anne Sofie & Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2011. "Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-76, January.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
- Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2015. "Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2010.
"Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves,"
CAMA Working Papers
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- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2009. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0910, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2011. "Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 77-87, January.
- Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018.
"Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
- Katja Drechsel & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
- Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2013. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2013, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011.
"Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach,"
Working Papers
No 1/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 48-68, January.
- Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009.
"Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009. "Pooling versus Model Selection for Nowcasting with Many Predictors: An Application to German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/13, European University Institute.
- Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023.
"Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach," Working Papers 20-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Edward Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: a model-combination approach," Working Papers 2015, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Tony Chernis & Taylor Webley, 2022. "Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations," Discussion Papers 2022-12, Bank of Canada.
- John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2012.
"A New Structural Break Model with Application to Canadian Inflation Forecasting,"
Working Paper series
27_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- John M Maheu & Yong Song, 2012. "A New Structural Break Model with Application to Canadian Inflation Forecasting," Working Papers tecipa-448, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Maheu, John & Song, Yong, 2012. "A new structural break model with application to Canadian inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 36870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong, 2014. "A new structural break model, with an application to Canadian inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 144-160.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014.
"Combined Density Nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment,"
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- Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2018. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 131-145, January.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022.
"Optimal Forecast under Structural Breaks,"
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- Tae‐Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Optimal forecast under structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 965-987, August.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Optimal Forecast under Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202207, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
- Carstensen, Kai & Wohlrabe, Klaus & Ziegler, Christina, 2011.
"Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test: A case study for the Euro area industrial production,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
19953, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Carstensen, Kai & Wohlrabe, Klaus & Ziegler, Christina, 2010. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Discussion Papers in Economics 11442, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Kai Carstensen & Klaus Wohlrabe & Christina Ziegler, 2010. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," CESifo Working Paper Series 3158, CESifo.
- Carstensen Kai & Wohlrabe Klaus & Ziegler Christina, 2011. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 82-106, February.
- Graefe, Andreas & Küchenhoff, Helmut & Stierle, Veronika & Riedl, Bernhard, 2015. "Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for forecasting social science problems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 943-951.
- Sean P. Grover & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael W. McCracken, 2016. "A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(4), pages 277-296.
- Shahnaz Parsaeian, 2023. "Structural Breaks in Seemingly Unrelated Regression Models," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202308, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
- Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun, 2013.
"Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty,"
EMF Research Papers
01, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011. "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2011-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
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- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009.
"Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0909, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring output gap uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/15, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 342, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Garratt, Anthony & Vahey, Shaun & Mitchell, James, 2010. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Herman K. Djik, 2021.
"Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil,"
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Globalization Institute Working Papers
338, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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CESifo Working Paper Series
3372, CESifo.
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"Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
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Working Papers ECARES
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"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
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1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
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"Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
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"Measurement Error In Macroeconomic Data And Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, And Gross Domestic Income,"
Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1846-1869, July.
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- Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment," Discussion Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.
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"A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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- Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- di Mauro, Filippo & Fornari, Fabio & Mannucci, Dario, 2011. "Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity," Working Paper Series 1366, European Central Bank.
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"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897,
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- Jansen, W. Jos & Jin, Xiaowen & de Winter, Jasper M., 2016.
"Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-436.
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- Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008.
"Combining inflation density forecasts,"
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2008/22, Norges Bank.
- Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
- Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009.
"Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?,"
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2009/01, Norges Bank.
- Hilde C. Bj�rnland & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Christie Smith, 2010. "Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?," Working Papers No 2/2010, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 163-179, April.
- Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023.
"Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
- Anthony Garratt & Timo Henckel & Shaun P. Vahey, 2019. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," CAMA Working Papers 2019-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Mamdouh Abdelmoula M. ABDELSALAM, 2017. "Improving Phillips Curve’s Inflation Forecasts under Misspecification," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 54-76, September.
- Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham, 2016.
"Forecasting in Economics and Finance,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
11354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2016. "Forecasting in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 81-110, October.
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2016. "Forecasting in Economics and Finance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6z55v472, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.
- Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2009.
"How Useful are Historical Data for Forecasting the Long-Run Equity Return Distribution?,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 95-112.
- John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Paper series 19_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Yin, Anwen, 2015. "Forecasting and model averaging with structural breaks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005727, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Vrontos, Spyridon, 2015. "Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 103-122.
- Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
- Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2009. "Do Composite Procedures Really Improve the Accuracy of Outlook Forecasts?," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53052, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Tommy Sveen & Sepideh K. Zahiri, 2016. "Commodity Futures and Forecasting Commodity Currencies," Working Papers No 7/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Hassanniakalager, Arman, 2017. "Reverse adaptive krill herd locally weighted support vector regression for forecasting and trading exchange traded funds," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 540-558.
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"Another look at calendar anomalies,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 823-840.
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- Evanthia Chatzitzisi & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2019. "Another Look at Calendar Anomalies," Working Paper series 19-07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 145-185, September.
- Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
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"Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
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"Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability,"
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2293, CESifo.
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"A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average,"
Working Papers
2015-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
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"Factor forecasting using international targeted predictors: the case of German GDP,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
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LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE
2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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"Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock,"
International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
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- Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
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"Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques,"
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"Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time,"
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Research Technical Papers
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"Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2007-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Cited by:
- Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007.
"Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?,"
NBP Working Papers
43, Narodowy Bank Polski.
- Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007. "Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?," Working Papers 5, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009.
"Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change,"
Working Papers ECARES
2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca, 2010. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Working Paper Series 1167, European Central Bank.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Giannone, Domenico & D’Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 7542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2011.
"Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 46-73, January.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011.
"Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
- David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227, April.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
- Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011.
"Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3372, CESifo.
- Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank.
- Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
- Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
- Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2019. "Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 459-470.
- Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007.
"Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?,"
NBP Working Papers
43, Narodowy Bank Polski.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007.
"Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Cited by:
- Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015.
"Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
- Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," IAB-Discussion Paper 201317, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023.
"On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
- Aaron Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2022. "On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth," Working Papers 2022-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 03 Jun 2022.
- Dany Brouillette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille & Laurence Savoie-Chabot & Pierre St-Amant & Bassirou Gueye & Elise Martin, 2019. "The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable," Staff Working Papers 19-13, Bank of Canada.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017.
"Financial Nowcasts and Their Usefulness in Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012.
"Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2018. "Mining big data using parsimonious factor, machine learning, variable selection and shrinkage methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 339-354.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010.
"Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
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- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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"Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
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- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 449-463, March.
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"Economic Forecasting,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
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Departmental Working Papers
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"Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
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"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
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"Taylor Rules and the Euro,"
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"Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
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"Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters,"
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"Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil,"
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- Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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"Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
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- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015.
"Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP,"
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- Ravazzolo Francesco & Rothman Philip, 2016. "Oil-price density forecasts of US GDP," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 441-453, September.
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"Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
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- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013.
"Are product spreads useful for forecasting? An empirical evaluation of the Verleger hypothesis,"
CFS Working Paper Series
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- Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2013. "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9572, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2013. "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," Staff Working Papers 13-25, Bank of Canada.
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"Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work,"
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- Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/22, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Christiane Baumeister & Pierre Guérin & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work," Staff Working Papers 14-11, Bank of Canada.
- Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting industrial production: the role of information and methods," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 227-235, Bank for International Settlements.
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"Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty,"
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- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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"Equity Returns and the Business Cycle: The Role of Supply and Demand Shocks,"
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- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014.
"What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 869-889, August.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," Staff Working Papers 13-15, Bank of Canada.
- Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2012. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 9118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 74-80.
- Dean Croushore, 2011.
"Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
- Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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"Markov-switching MIDAS models,"
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- Benjamin Beckers, 2015.
"The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
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- Beckers, Benjamin, 2015. "The real-time predictive content of asset price bubbles for macro forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112852, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cecilia Frale & Valentina Raponi, 2011. "Revisions in ocial data and forecasting," Working Papers LuissLab 1194, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
- Philippe de Peretti & Oren Tapiero, 2014. "A GARCH analysis of dark-pool trades," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00984834, HAL.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
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"Real-time datasets really do make a difference: definitional change, data release, and forecasting,"
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- Norman R. Swanson & Andres Fernandez, 2011. "Real-Time Datasets Really Do Make a Difference: Definitional Change, Data Release, and Forecasting," Departmental Working Papers 201113, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2017. "Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers 17-5, Bank of Canada.
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"Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481, April.
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"Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206, November.
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"Advances in forecast evaluation,"
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- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
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- Christian Hutter, 2020.
"A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany,"
Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-10, December.
- Hutter, Christian, 2020. "A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(1), pages 1-4.
- Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2017. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time-varying parameter models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 337-348.
- Hyun Hak Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Mining Big Data Using Parsimonious Factor and Shrinkage Methods," Departmental Working Papers 201316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Heinisch Katja & Scheufele Rolf, 2019.
"Should Forecasters Use Real-Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence,"
German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 170-200, December.
- Heinisch, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Should Forecasters Use Real‐Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 170-200, November.
- Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.
- Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
- Philippe de Peretti & Oren Tapiero, 2014. "A GARCH analysis of dark-pool trades," Post-Print hal-00984834, HAL.
- Kohei Maehashi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2020. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Factor Models and Machine Learning: An Application to Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1146, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Pichette, Lise & Robitaille, Marie-Noëlle & Salameh, Mohanad & St-Amant, Pierre, 2019. "Dismiss the output gaps? To use with caution given their limitations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 199-215.
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"Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models,"
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- Heinisch, Katja, 2016. "A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145864, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
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- Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
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"Combining forecasts from nested models,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
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- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Combining Forecasts from Nested Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, June.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Working Papers 2008-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Cited by:
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010.
"Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2017.
"A Machine Learning Approach to the Forecast Combination Puzzle,"
Working Papers
halshs-01317974, HAL.
- Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2017. "A Machine Learning Approach to the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01317974, HAL.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Combining Forecasts from Nested Models,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, June.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Working Papers 2008-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2007.
"A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast,"
FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
650, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
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- Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 2007. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 642, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
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Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 534-570.
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Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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CREATES Research Papers
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Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
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Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
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- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
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"Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change,"
Working Papers ECARES
2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
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"Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
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"Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test: A case study for the Euro area industrial production,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
19953, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
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- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Ana María Abarca & Felipe Alarcón & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 425, Central Bank of Chile.
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"Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?,"
Scholarly Articles
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"Mind your Ps and Qs! Improving ARMA forecasts with RBC priors,"
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"Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test: A case study for the Euro area industrial production,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
19953, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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"Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
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"Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices,"
2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy
211626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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"Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks,"
MPRA Paper
49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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"Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
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"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
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Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 363-385, April.
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"A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting,"
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"Bagging Weak Predictors,"
CREATES Research Papers
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"International Stock Return Predictability: On the Role of the United States in Bad and Good Times,"
KOF Working papers
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"Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?,"
University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics
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"Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models,"
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"Forecasting the Term Structure of Option Implied Volatility: The Power of an Adaptive Method,"
IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers
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"Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil,"
Occasional Papers
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"Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol?,"
CFS Working Paper Series
563, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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- Christiane Baumeister & Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?," Staff Working Papers 17-35, Bank of Canada.
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"Forecasting Returns of Major Cryptocurrencies: Evidence from Regime-Switching Factor Models,"
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"El Nino, La Nina, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements,"
Working Papers
202138, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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"The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey,"
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"Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo MATLAB Toolbox,"
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- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," CREATES Research Papers 2013-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-055/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 Jan 2015.
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- Barbara Rossi, 2013.
"Exchange rate predictability,"
Economics Working Papers
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- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona School of Economics.
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University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics
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Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, February.
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"A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability,"
MPRA Paper
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- Pablo Pincheira Brown, 2022. "A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 45(89), pages 150-183.
- Alice Albonico & Alessia Paccagnini & Patrizio Tirelli, 2018.
"Limited Asset Market Participation and the Euro Area Crisis. An Empirical DSGE Model,"
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- Alice Albonico & Alessia Paccagnini & Patrizio Tirelli, 2019. "Limited Asset Market Participation And The Euro Area Crisis: An Empirical Dsge Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(3), pages 1302-1323, July.
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"Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty,"
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- Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021.
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Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
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"Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case,"
Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
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- Pesenti, Paolo & Groen, Jan J. J., 2010. "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 7689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paolo A. Pesenti & Jan J.J. Groen, 2011. "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 440, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Jan J. J. Groen & Paolo Pesenti, 2009. "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," Staff Reports 387, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
- Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," NBER Working Papers 13901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 10-07, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Chen, Yu-Chin & Rossi, Barbara, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Scholarly Articles 29412033, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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- Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "International evidence on the new Keynesian Phillips Curve using aggregate and disaggregate data," Working Papers 2010_18, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2013. "International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 913-932, August.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2013. "International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 913-932, August.
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- Jan Babecký & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 102-127, June.
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- Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Post-Print hal-00643340, HAL.
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- Tillmann, Peter & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach," Kiel Working Papers 1951, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Peter Tillmann & Maik H. Wolters, 2012. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201206, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
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"Can We Explain Inflation Persistence in a Way that Is Consistent with the Microevidence on Nominal Rigidity?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 151-170, February.
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- Dixon, Huw David & Kara, Engin, 2008. "Can we explain inflation persistence in a way that is consistent with the micro-evidence on nominal rigidity?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Simone Elmer & Thomas Maag, 2009. "The Persistence of Inflation in Switzerland," KOF Working papers 09-235, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Lünnemann, Patrick & Mathä, Thomas Y., 2005.
"Regulated and services' prices and inflation persistence,"
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- Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2005. "Nominal rigidities and inflation persistence in Luxembourg: a comparison with EU 15 member countries with particular focus on services and regulated prices," BCL working papers 14, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2010. "Rigidities and inflation persistence of services and regulated prices," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 193-208.
- Bouakez, Hafedh & Cardia, Emanuela & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2014.
"Sectoral price rigidity and aggregate dynamics,"
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- BOUAKEZ, Hafedh & CARDIA, Emanuela & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2009. "Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 2009-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Emanuela Cardia & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2009. "Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 0906, CIRPEE.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The Time‐Series Properties Of Uk Inflation: Evidence From Aggregate And Disaggregate Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 33-47, February.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter, 2011.
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- Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2011. "On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price-setting," Working Paper Series 1334, European Central Bank.
- Beck, Guenter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price setting," IMFS Working Paper Series 63, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
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- Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004.
"The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics,"
Finance
0409032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barbara Rossi, 2007. "Expectations hypotheses tests at Long Horizons," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 554-579, November.
- Bessec Marie & Bouabdallah Othman, 2005.
"What Causes The Forecasting Failure of Markov-Switching Models? A Monte Carlo Study,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, June.
- Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2005. "What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study," Econometrics 0503018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2007.
"Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures For Predictive Inference Based On Recursive Estimation Schemes,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 67-109, February.
- Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2006. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures for Predictive Inference Based on Recursive Estimation Schemes," Departmental Working Papers 200618, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003.
"Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France,"
Working papers
101, Banque de France.
- O. De Bandt & E. Michaux & C. Bruneau & A. Flageollet, 2007. "Forecasting inflation using economic indicators: the case of France," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1-22.
- Gabriel Moser & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2004.
"Forecasting Austrian Inflation,"
Working Papers
91, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Moser, Gabriel & Rumler, Fabio & Scharler, Johann, 2007. "Forecasting Austrian inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 470-480, May.
- Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003.
"The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
183, Society for Computational Economics.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boucher, Christophe, 2006. "Stock prices-inflation puzzle and the predictability of stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 205-212, February.
- Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
- Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006.
"Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
- Todd E. Clark, 2000.
"Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 00-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
Cited by:
- Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017.
"The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
- Mogliani, M. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Pluyaud, B., 2014. "New estimate of the MIBA forecasting model. Modeling first-release GDP using the Banque de France's Monthly Business Survey and the “blocking” approach," Working papers 473, Banque de France.
- Ana María Abarca G. & Felipe Alarcón G. & Pablo Pincheira B. & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Nominal Exchange Rate in Chile: Predictions based on technical analysis," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 57-80, August.
- Pao, H.T., 2009. "Forecasting energy consumption in Taiwan using hybrid nonlinear models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1438-1446.
- Rangel José Gonzalo, 2009.
"Macroeconomic News, Announcements, and Stock Market Jump Intensity Dynamics,"
Working Papers
2009-15, Banco de México.
- Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
- Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013.
"Macroeconomic Variables and South African Stock Return Predictability,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 612-622.
- Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2011. "Macroeconomic Variables and South African Stock Return Predictability," Working Papers 201107, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Medel, Carlos A., 2012.
"How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? the case of Chilean GDP,"
MPRA Paper
35949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlos Medel, 2012. "How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 657, Central Bank of Chile.
- Carlos A. Medel, 2013. "How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? The case of Chilean GDP," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 50(1), pages 133-161, May.
- Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 196-204.
- Parigi, Giuseppe & Golinelli, Roberto, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2019.
"Stock Returns and Investor Sentiment: Textual Analysis and Social Media,"
Working Papers
19-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2020. "Stock returns and investor sentiment: textual analysis and social media," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 458-485, July.
- Carlos A. Medel, 2015.
"Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas,"
Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 57-72, Abril.
- Carlos Medel, 2014. "Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 735, Central Bank of Chile.
- Medel, Carlos A., 2014. "Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas [Classical Probability of Overfitting with Information Criteria: Estimations with ," MPRA Paper 57401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ana María Abarca & Felipe Alarcón & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 425, Central Bank of Chile.
- Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
- Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2017.
"Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures,"
MPRA Paper
80496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in Latin America with core measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1060-1071.
- Michael Scholz & Jens Perch Nielsen & Stefan Sperlich, 2012. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns guided by prior knowledge," Graz Economics Papers 2012-02, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Gelper, Sarah & Croux, Christophe, 2007. "Multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3319-3329, April.
- Glocker, Christian & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2020. "Structural modeling and forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 101874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sinéad Keogh & Stephen O’Neill & Kieran Walsh, 2021. "Composite Measures for Assessing Multidimensional Social Exclusion in Later Life: Conceptual and Methodological Challenges," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 389-410, June.
- Ryan Compton & Syeed Khan, 2010. "An examination of the stability of short-run Canadian stock predictability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1293-1306.
- Michael Graff, 2005.
"Ein multisektoraler Sammelindikator fuer die Schweizer Konjunktur,"
KOF Working papers
05-107, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Michael Graff, 2006. "Ein multisektoraler Sammelindikator für die Schweizer Konjunktur," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(IV), pages 529-577, December.
- Ramon E. Lopez & Kevin Sepulveda, 2022. "¿Cual es el efecto de shocks de demanda interna sobre la inflacion en una economia pequena y abierta? Chile 2000-2021," Working Papers wp529, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
- Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli, 2007. "The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 77-94.
- Naresh Bansal & Jack Strauss & Alireza Nasseh, 2015. "Can we consistently forecast a firm’s earnings? Using combination forecast methods to predict the EPS of Dow firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, January.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- Yang, Zihui & Zhao, Yongliang, 2014. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in India: Evidence from directed acyclic graphs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 533-540.
- Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2016. "Forecasting bank leverage: an alternative to regulatory early warning models," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 38-69, August.
- López, Ramón & Sepúlveda, Kevin A., 2022. "The effects of domestic demand shocks on inflation in a small open economy: Chile in the period 2000–2021," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
- Daniel Fernández, 2011. "Suficiencia del capital y previsiones de la banca uruguaya por su exposición al sector industrial," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 517-589, octubre-d.
- Ghandar, Adam & Michalewicz, Zbigniew & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2016. "The relationship between model complexity and forecasting performance for computer intelligence optimization in finance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 598-613.
- Tamara Burdisso & Eduardo Ariel Corso, 2011. "Incertidumbre y dolarización de cartera: el caso argentino en el último medio siglo," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 461-515, octubre-d.
- James Lightwood & Steve Anderson & Stanton A Glantz, 2020. "Predictive validation and forecasts of short-term changes in healthcare expenditure associated with changes in smoking behavior in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Medel, Carlos A., 2012.
"¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para predecir el PIB chileno? [Akaike or Schwarz? Which One is a Better Predictor of Chilean GDP?],"
MPRA Paper
35950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlos Medel, 2012. "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 658, Central Bank of Chile.
- Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2011.
"External imbalance, valuation adjustments and real Exchange rate: evidence of predictability in an emerging economy,"
Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 26(1), pages 107-125, Junio.
- Jorge Selaive & Pablo Pincheira B., 2008. "External Imbalances, Valuation Adjustments and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence of Predictability in an Emerging Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 460, Central Bank of Chile.
- Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020.
"A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
- Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Philips Curve," Working Papers 2018:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Advances in forecast evaluation,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022.
"Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
- Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2020. "Macroeconometric Forecasting Using a Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models," WIFO Working Papers 614, WIFO.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Fujiwara, Ippei & Koga, Maiko, 2004. "A Statistical Forecasting Method for Inflation Forecasting: Hitting Every Vector Autoregression and Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 123-142, March.
- Pär Österholm, 2010.
"Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data,"
Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
- Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Working Papers 112, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Frank Schiller & Gerold Seidler & Maximilian Wimmer, 2012. "Temperature models for pricing weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 489-500, March.
- Javier Pereda, 2011.
"Estimación de la tasa natural de interés para Perú: un enfoque financiero,"
Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 429-459, octubre-d.
- Pereda, Javier, 2010. "Estimación de la Tasa Natural de Interés para el Perú: Un Enfoque Financiero," Working Papers 2010-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Carlos A. Medel Vera, 2011. "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál utilizar para predecir el PIB chileno?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 591-615, octubre-d.
- Carlos A. Medel & Sergio C. Salgado, 2013.
"Does the Bic Estimate and Forecast Better than the Aic?,"
Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(1), pages 47-64, April.
- Carlos A. Medel & Sergio C. Salgado, 2012. "Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 679, Central Bank of Chile.
- Medel, Carlos A. & Salgado, Sergio C., 2012. "Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better than AIC?," MPRA Paper 42235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Edvinsson, Rodney & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Does Money Growth Predict Inflation? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data," Working Papers 2023:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Maiko Koga, 2002. "A Statistical Forecasting Method for Inflation Forecasting," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
- McGurk, Zachary, 2020. "US real estate inflation prediction: Exchange rates and net foreign assets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-66.
- Makin, Anthony J. & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2015. "Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 154-161.
- Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
- Jacques Peeperkorn & Yudhvir Seetharam, 2016. "A learning-augmented approach to pricing risk in South Africa," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(1), pages 117-139, April.
- Gary Cornwall & Jeffrey A. Mills & Beau A. Sauley & Huibin Weng, 2018. "Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross Validation," BEA Working Papers 0156, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Paldam, Martin, 2018. "A model of the representative economist, as researcher and policy advisor," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 5-15.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000.
"Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0319, Econometric Society.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Cited by:
- Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015.
"Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
- Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," IAB-Discussion Paper 201317, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011.
"Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output,"
Departmental Working Papers
201103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Norman Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2006. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 200619, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Adam J. Check & Anna K Nolan & Tyler C. Schipper, 2019.
"Forecasting GDP Growth using Disaggregated GDP Revisions,"
Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2580-2588.
- Check, Adam J. & Nolan, Anna K. & Schipper, Tyler C., 2018. "Forecasting GDP: Do Revisions Matter?," MPRA Paper 86194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Freire, Gustavo, 2021. "Tail risk and investors’ concerns: Evidence from Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2022.
"Stock return predictability: Evaluation based on interval forecasts,"
Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 363-385, April.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae Kim, 2022. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on interval forecasts," Post-Print hal-03656310, HAL.
- Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023.
"On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
- Aaron Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2022. "On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth," Working Papers 2022-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 03 Jun 2022.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008.
"Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2330, CESifo.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cuñado & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2012. "Modelling Long Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," Faculty Working Papers 13/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, May.
- Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009.
"The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange,"
UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance
2009/35, University of Stavanger.
- Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
- Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003.
"Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?,"
Working Paper Series
151, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Papers 84, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2023. "Liquidity yield and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003.
"On the selection of forecasting models,"
Working Paper Series
214, European Central Bank.
- Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
- Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
- Asmara Jamaleh, 2002. "Explaining and forecasting the euro/dollar exchange rate through a non-linear threshold model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 422-448.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
- Kung, Ko-Lun & MacMinn, Richard D. & Kuo, Weiyu & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason, 2022. "Multi-population mortality modeling: When the data is too much and not enough," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 41-55.
- Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2018.
"Forecasting through the Rearview Mirror: Data Revisions and Bond Return Predictability,"
Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 678-714.
- Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "A Survey of Recent Advances in Forecast Accuracy Comparison Testing, with an Extension to Stochastic Dominance," Departmental Working Papers 201309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
- Zhanglong Wang & Kent Wang & Zheyao Pan, 2015. "Conditional equity risk premia and realized variance jump risk," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(2), pages 295-317, May.
- Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017.
"The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
- Mogliani, M. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Pluyaud, B., 2014. "New estimate of the MIBA forecasting model. Modeling first-release GDP using the Banque de France's Monthly Business Survey and the “blocking” approach," Working papers 473, Banque de France.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013.
"Exchange rate predictability,"
Economics Working Papers
1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2018. "Mining big data using parsimonious factor, machine learning, variable selection and shrinkage methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 339-354.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020.
"On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
20-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
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Articles
- Todd E. Clark & Matthew V. Gordon, 2023.
"The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation,"
Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, May.
Cited by:
- Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024.
"The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
10930, CESifo.
- Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Discussion Papers 2405, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," CAMA Working Papers 2024-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 32098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Christopher Healy & Chengcheng Jia, 2023. "Monetary Policy since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Path-Dependent Interpretation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(12), pages 1-8, July.
- Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024.
"The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
10930, CESifo.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023.
"Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 979-1022, August.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," CEPR Discussion Papers 17461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea, 2021. "Nowcasting Tail Risk to Economic Activity at a Weekly Frequency," CEPR Discussion Papers 16496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yu Bai & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Macroeconomic forecasting in a multi‐country context,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1230-1255, September.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," CEPR Discussion Papers 16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yu Bai & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," Working Papers 22-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021.
"No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "No-Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 20-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2021.
"Using time-varying volatility for identification in Vector Autoregressions: An application to endogenous uncertainty,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 47-73.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2021. "Using Time-Varying Volatility for Identification in Vector Autoregressions: An Application to Endogenous Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 16346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020.
"Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 273-293, April.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "Assessing International Commonality in Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Effects," Working Papers (Old Series) 1803, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2019. "Assessing International Commonality in Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Effects," Working Papers 18-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea, 2019. "Assessing International Commonality in Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 13970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020.
"Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Todd E Clark & Michael W McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," BIS Working Papers 667, Bank for International Settlements.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers 2017-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers 17-15R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1715, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2019.
"Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 137-154.
Cited by:
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022.
"Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility,"
Papers
2206.08438, arXiv.org.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2020. "Fast and accurate variational inference for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2020-108, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Yu, Xuewen, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
- Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
- Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2022.
"APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND FORECASTING IN HUGE‐DIMENSIONAL MULTICOUNTRY VARs,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1625-1658, November.
- Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Approximate Bayesian inference and forecasting in huge-dimensional multi-country VARs," Papers 2103.04944, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021.
"Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2020. "Combining Shrinkage and Sparsity in Conjugate Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2002.08760, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018.
"Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility,"
CAMA Working Papers
2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2020. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 692-711, September.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2021.
"Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation,"
Working Papers
2021_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2021. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," Papers 2112.11751, arXiv.org.
- Korobilis, Dimitris & Shimizu, Kenichi, 2021. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," MPRA Paper 111631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2022. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 11(4), pages 230-354, June.
- Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2022. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," Working Paper series 22-02, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022.
"Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US,"
Working Papers
22-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- James Mitchell & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-16, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
- Koop, Gary & McIntyre, Stuart & Mitchell, James & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," EMF Research Papers 37, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
- Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Korobilis, Dimitris & Lee, Thomas K., 2020.
"Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
14580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," NBER Working Papers 27001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers 2020_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 828-844, October.
- Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8282, CESifo.
- Florian, Huber & Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Schreiner, Josef, 2021.
"Nowcasting in a Pandemic using Non-Parametric Mixed Frequency VARs,"
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"Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
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"Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics,"
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"Subspace shrinkage in conjugate Bayesian vector autoregressions,"
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See citations under working paper version above.
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"A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2015. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations," Working Papers (Old Series) 1520, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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"Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional Forecasting,"
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Cited by:
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020.
"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2018. "Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1809, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Kontogeorgos, Georgios & Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2019. "An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections," Working Paper Series 2291, European Central Bank.
- Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019.
"An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
- Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2017-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Giusto Andrea & İşcan Talan B., 2018. "The Rescaled VAR Model with an Application to Mixed-Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasting," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 1-16, September.
- Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.
- Chen, Chaoyi & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maynard, Alex & Pesavento, Elena, 2022. "Long-horizon stock valuation and return forecasts based on demographic projections," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-215.
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"Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy,"
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See citations under working paper version above.
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LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Papers hal-03458277, HAL.
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Sciences Po publications 18, Sciences Po.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 1808, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458277, HAL.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 756, Bank of England.
- Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015.
"Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR," NBER Working Papers 19712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2012. "Real-time forecasting with a mixed-frequency VAR," Working Papers 701, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012.
"Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Maximilian Böck & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2020. "BGVAR: Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions with Shrinkage Priors in R," Globalization Institute Working Papers 395, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Roberto Casarin & Marco Tronzano & Domenico Sartore, 2013. "Bayesian Markov Switching Stochastic Correlation Models," Working Papers 2013:11, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021.
"Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2020. "Combining Shrinkage and Sparsity in Conjugate Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2002.08760, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
- Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
- Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2016.
"Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG,"
Working Papers
99, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Davide Pettenuzzo & Aaron Smith, 2019. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic Tilting," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 17(4), pages 559-586.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2016. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG," Working Papers 99R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Aug 2016.
- Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015.
"Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
- Ferrara, L. & Marcellino, M. & Mogliani, M., 2012. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," Working papers 383, Banque de France.
- Laurent Ferrara & Massimiliano Marcellino & Matteo Mogliani, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: the return of non-linearity?," Post-Print hal-01635951, HAL.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018.
"Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility,"
CAMA Working Papers
2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2020. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 692-711, September.
- Huber, Florian & Krisztin, Tamás & Piribauer, Philipp, 2014.
"Forecasting Global Equity Indices Using Large Bayesian VARs,"
Department of Economics Working Paper Series
184, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Florian Huber & Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2017. "Forecasting Global Equity Indices Using Large Bayesian Vars," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 288-308, July.
- Florian Huber & Tamas Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2014. "Forecasting Global Equity Indices using Large Bayesian VARs," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp184, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017.
"Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions,"
Working Paper series
17-32, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 103R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Apr 2016.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Bayesian compressed vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 135-154.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 103, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2015.
"Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
KOF Working papers
15-393, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1016-1036, October.
- Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp214, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Huber, Florian & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2016. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 214, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Florian, Huber & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2019. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working Papers in Economics 2019-4, University of Salzburg.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017.
"Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors,"
Working Papers
2017-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E Clark & Michael W McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," BIS Working Papers 667, Bank for International Settlements.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers 17-15R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1715, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022.
"Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US,"
Working Papers
22-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- James Mitchell & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-16, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
- Koop, Gary & McIntyre, Stuart & Mitchell, James & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," EMF Research Papers 37, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2020.
"Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
20-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Schorfheide, Frank & Song, Dongho, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 16760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," Working Papers 20-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 29535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dick Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014.
"Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 693-712, August.
- Dick van Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-076/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Florian, Huber & Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Schreiner, Josef, 2021.
"Nowcasting in a Pandemic using Non-Parametric Mixed Frequency VARs,"
Working Papers
2021-01, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
- Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Schreiner, Josef, 2023. "Nowcasting in a pandemic using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 52-69.
- Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Schreiner, Josef, 2021. "Nowcasting in a pandemic using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs," Working Paper Series 2510, European Central Bank.
- Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Luca Onorante & Michael Pfarrhofer & Josef Schreiner, 2020. "Nowcasting in a Pandemic using Non-Parametric Mixed Frequency VARs," Papers 2008.12706, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022.
"Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
17512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 20-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
- Behera, Harendra Kumar & Patra, Michael Debabrata, 2022. "Measuring trend inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers 759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Bognanni, Mark & Zito, John, 2020. "Sequential Bayesian inference for vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
- Andrea Carriero & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2016.
"A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods,"
EMF Research Papers
10, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models,"
Working Papers
22-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models," Papers 2202.13793, arXiv.org.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary, 2023. "Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 18244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Shin, Minchul, 2023.
"Macroeconomic forecasting and variable ordering in multivariate stochastic volatility models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1054-1086.
- Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers 21-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Tornese, Tommaso, 2022.
"Blended Identification in Structural VARs,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
17640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "Blended Identification in Structural VARs," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23200, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2022.
"Predicting returns and dividend growth — The role of non-Gaussian innovations,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
- Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2021. "Predicting returns and dividend growth - the role of non-Gaussian innovations," Working Papers 2021:10, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021.
"Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
- Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Does Judgment Improve Macroeconomic Density Forecasts?," EMF Research Papers 33, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2016.
"Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
- Hauzenberger, Niko & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2021.
"On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Michael Pfarrhofer & Anna Stelzer, 2020. "On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty," Papers 2011.14424, arXiv.org.
- Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2014.
"Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models,"
NBER Working Papers
20055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco Del Negro & Marc Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian models," Staff Reports 618, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
- Marc Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide & Marco Del Negro, 2014. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," 2014 Meeting Papers 506, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021.
"Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions,"
Papers
2103.03632, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
- Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Sune Karlsson & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen, 2021.
"Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails,"
Papers
2105.11182, arXiv.org.
- Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2021. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Working Papers 2021:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2023. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Hauzenberger Niko & Huber Florian & Pfarrhofer Michael & Zörner Thomas O., 2021.
"Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-17, April.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Thomas O. Zorner, 2018. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Papers 1807.00529, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
- Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Zörner, Thomas O., 2018. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Working Papers in Economics 2018-3, University of Salzburg.
- Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018.
"Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility,"
Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz
2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Bertsche, Dominik & Braun, Robin, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181631, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Bertsche, Dominik & Braun, Robin, 2020. "Identification of structural vector autoregressions by stochastic volatility," Bank of England working papers 869, Bank of England.
- Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2017. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2022. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 328-341, January.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2020.
"Dynamic Shrinkage Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Regressions using Scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods,"
Papers
2005.03906, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop, "undated". "Dynamic Shrinkage Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Regressions using Scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 2305, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Andres Ramirez Hassan, 2020.
"Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
33/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Martin, Gael M. & Loaiza-Maya, Rubén & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Frazier, David T. & Ramírez-Hassan, Andrés, 2022. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 384-406.
- Gael M. Martin & Rub'en Loaiza-Maya & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Andr'es Ram'irez Hassan, 2020. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?," Papers 2009.09592, arXiv.org.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016.
"Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 118-127, January.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013. "Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 896, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio & Porqueddu, Mario, 2013. "Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023.
"Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach," Working Papers 20-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Edward Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: a model-combination approach," Working Papers 2015, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Maheu, John M & Yang, Qiao & Song, Yong, 2018.
"Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth: The Volatility Link,"
MPRA Paper
83779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong & Yang, Qiao, 2020. "Oil price shocks and economic growth: The volatility link," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 570-587.
- John M. Maheu & Yong Song & Qiao Yang, 2018. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth: The Volatility Link," Working Paper series 18-03, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Maheu, John M & Song, Yong & Yang, Qiao, 2018. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth: The Volatility Link," MPRA Paper 83999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zhang, Yixiao & Yu, Cindy L. & Li, Haitao, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP Using Dynamic Factor Model with Unknown Number of Factors and Stochastic Volatility: A Bayesian Approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 75-93.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014.
"Combined Density Nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment,"
Working Paper
2014/17, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2018. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 131-145, January.
- Pär Österholm & Aubrey Poon, 2023.
"Trend Inflation in Sweden,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4707-4716, October.
- Österholm, Pär & Poon, Aubrey, 2022. "Trend Inflation in Sweden," Working Papers 2022:2, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017.
"Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility,"
CFS Working Paper Series
577, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2015. "Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2015.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017. "Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 322-332.
- Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2016. "Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 22615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022.
"Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?,"
Working Papers
2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Tamás Kiss & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modelling Okun’s law: Does non-Gaussianity matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2183-2213, May.
- Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019.
"How Sensitive Are VAR Forecasts to Prior Hyperparameters? An Automated Sensitivity Analysis,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part A, volume 40, pages 229-248,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2018. "How sensitive are VAR forecasts to prior hyperparameters? An automated sensitivity analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2018-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2017.
"Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Under Model Instability,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 183-201, April.
- Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2016. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables under Model Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robin Niesert & Jochem Oorschot & Chris Veldhuisen & Kester Brons & Rutger-Jan Lange, "undated".
"Can Google Search Data Help Predict Macroeconomic Series?,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
19-021/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Niesert, Robin F. & Oorschot, Jochem A. & Veldhuisen, Christian P. & Brons, Kester & Lange, Rutger-Jan, 2020. "Can Google search data help predict macroeconomic series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1163-1172.
- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014.
"Financial Conditions and Density Forecasts for US Output and Inflation,"
Working Papers
715, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US Output and inflation," Joint Research Papers 4, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," CReMFi Discussion Papers 1, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
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- Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Estimating Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR Models," Papers 1912.02231, arXiv.org.
- Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: The New Forecast Standard of the ifo Institute," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.
- Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0608, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
- Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
- Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2024. "Predictability of Exchange Rate Density Forecasts for Emerging Economies in the Short Run," Working Papers Series 588, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Rozina Shaheen, 2019. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Labor Supply under a Time-Varying Structural VAR Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, June.
- Sebastiano Manzan, 2015. "Forecasting the Distribution of Economic Variables in a Data-Rich Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 144-164, January.
- Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2020. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto‐regressive model with entropic tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 91-119, January.
- Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.
- Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
- Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
- Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, May.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2016. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural changes in steady states," Working Papers 204, Bank of Greece.
- Clark, Todd E. & Davig, Troy, 2011.
"Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 981-999, July.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2009. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 09-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 53-66, February.
- Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2012. "Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 53-66.
Cited by:
- Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020.
"On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
20-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," CAMA Working Papers 2020-27, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2020-03, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
- Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2023. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1844-1864, November.
- Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2018.
"Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration,"
Working Papers
No 2/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Gianfreda, Angelica & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2020. "Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 974-986.
- Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2018. "Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration," Papers 1801.01093, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
- Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020.
"Forecasting GDP Growth from Outer Space,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 697-722, August.
- Jaqueson K Galimberti, 2017. "Forecasting GDP growth from the outer space," KOF Working papers 17-427, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020. "Forecasting GDP growth from outer space," Working Papers 2020-02, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
- Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices," Working Papers No 05/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Sander, Magnus, 2018. "Market timing over the business cycle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-145.
- Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
- Wang, Rudan & Morley, Bruce & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Forecasting the exchange rate using nonlinear Taylor rule based models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 429-442.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013.
"A predictability test for a small number of nested models,"
Working Paper Series
1580, European Central Bank.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Hubrich, Kirstin & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2014. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 174-185.
- Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024.
"How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
- Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2021. "How Local is the Local Inflation Factor? Evidence from Emerging European Countries," Working Papers 8-2021, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
- Gonçalves, Sílvia & McCracken, Michael W. & Perron, Benoit, 2017.
"Tests of equal accuracy for nested models with estimated factors,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 231-252.
- Silvia Goncalves & Michael W. McCracken & Benoit Perron, 2015. "Tests of Equal Accuracy for Nested Models with Estimated Factors," Working Papers 2015-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Karen Miranda & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Dynamic factor models: Does the specification matter?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 397-428, May.
- Grégory Levieuge, 2017.
"Explaining and forecasting bank loans. Good times and crisis,"
Post-Print
hal-03529226, HAL.
- G.Levieuge, 2015. "Explaining and forecasting bank loans. Good times and crisis," Working papers 566, Banque de France.
- Grégory Levieuge, 2017. "Explaining and forecasting bank loans. Good times and crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 823-843, February.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1121, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. Mccracken, 2014. "Tests Of Equal Forecast Accuracy For Overlapping Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 415-430, April.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models," Working Papers 2011-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2015.
"The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate,"
Working Papers
2015/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
- Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2016. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 282-301, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 09-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Working Papers 2009-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Zeng-Hua Lu, 2019. "Extended MinP Tests of Multiple Hypotheses," Papers 1911.04696, arXiv.org.
- Khalaf, Lynda & Saunders, Charles J., 2017. "Monte Carlo forecast evaluation with persistent data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-10.
- Kolev, Gueorgui I. & Karapandza, Rasa, 2017. "Out-of-sample equity premium predictability and sample split–invariant inference," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 188-201.
- Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
- Tarassow, Artur, 2019. "Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 443-457.
- Hollstein, Fabian & Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019.
"International tail risk and World Fear,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 244-259.
- Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "International Tail Risk and World Fear," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-620, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2020. "Predicting bond return predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2020-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019.
"Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1636-1657.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2018. "Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2018, Bank of Finland.
- Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Crude oil price point forecasts of the Norwegian GDP growth rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2913-2930, November.
- Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016.
"FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
- Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2015. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Working Papers 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Advances in forecast evaluation,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Neuhierl, Andreas & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2021. "Data snooping in equity premium prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 72-94.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H Kim, 2017.
"International Stock Return Predictability: Evidence from New Statistical Tests,"
Post-Print
hal-01626101, HAL.
- Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "International stock return predictability: Evidence from new statistical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-113.
- Tobback, Ellen & Naudts, Hans & Daelemans, Walter & Junqué de Fortuny, Enric & Martens, David, 2018. "Belgian economic policy uncertainty index: Improvement through text mining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 355-365.
- Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
- Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 101-123, February.
- Wada, Tatsuma, 2022. "Out-of-sample forecasting of foreign exchange rates: The band spectral regression and LASSO," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
- Enoch Cheng & Clemens C. Struck, 2019. "Time-Series Momentum: A Monte-Carlo Approach," Working Papers 201906, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010.
"Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
See citations under working paper version above.- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010.
"Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
- Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010. "Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
See citations under working paper version above.- Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2009. "Time variation in the inflation passthrough of energy prices," Research Working Paper RWP 09-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009.
"Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Improving Forecast Accuracy By Combining Recursive And Rolling Forecasts,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 363-395, May.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Working Papers 2008-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark, 2009.
"Is the Great Moderation over? an empirical analysis,"
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q IV), pages 5-42.
Cited by:
- Valcarcel, Victor J., 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and the time-varying effects of aggregate shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 822-843.
- Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
- Hanck, Christoph & Demetrescu, Matei & Tarcolea, Adina, 2012.
"IV-Based Cointegration Testing in Dependent Panels with Time-Varying Variance,"
VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century
62072, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Adina I. Tarcolea, 2014. "Iv-Based Cointegration Testing In Dependent Panels With Time-Varying Variance," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 393-406, August.
- Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013.
"Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests,"
Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906,
Elsevier.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 16810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
- Hanck, Christoph & Demetrescu, Matei & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Fixed-b Asymptotics for t-Statistics in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112916, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Demetrescu, Matei & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018.
"Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: factor augmentation and model selection,"
Bank of England working papers
723, Bank of England.
- Demetrescu, Matei & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 80-99.
- James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2012. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018.
"Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence,"
Post-Print
hal-01757081, HAL.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-04141344, HAL.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-00952951, HAL.
- Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
- Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2017. "What's so great about the Great Moderation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-142.
- Smales, Lee A. & Apergis, Nick, 2016. "The influence of FOMC member characteristics on the monetary policy decision-making process," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 216-231.
- Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
- Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2011.
"High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1322-1339, August.
- Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2011. "High-growth recoveries, inventories and the great moderation," Post-Print hal-00828978, HAL.
- Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2009. "High-growth Recoveries, Inventories and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 0917, Banco de España.
- Everaert, Gerdie & Iseringhausen, Martin, 2018.
"Measuring the international dimension of output volatility,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 20-39.
- Gerdie Everaert & Martin Iseringhausen, 2017. "Measuring The International Dimension Of Output Volatility," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/928, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu, 2017. "Taxes, Financial Markets and the Great Moderation," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 83-115.
- Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020.
"Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
- David Harris & Hsein Kew & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2020. "Level Shift Estimation in the Presence of Non-stationary Volatility with an Application to the Unit Root Testing Problem," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ø. Nielsen & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2016.
"Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimation And Bootstrap Inference In Fractional Time Series Models With Heteroskedasticity Of Unknown Form,"
Working Paper
1324, Economics Department, Queen's University.
- Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2017. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference in fractional time series models with heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 165-188.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Robert Taylor, 2017. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bootstrap Inference in Fractional Time Series Models with Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CREATES Research Papers 2017-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.
- Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse, 2016. "Fixed-b Inference in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2016-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Weiss, Matthew A., 2011. "Forecast errors before and during the Great Moderation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 278-289, July.
- Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Nonlinear IV panel unit root testing under structural breaks in the error variance," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1043-1066, November.
- Xuan, Chunji & Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Dong Heon, 2019. "New dynamics of consumption and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-59.
- Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
- Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Yoon, Bohyun, 2019. "Why has the size effect disappeared?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 256-276.
- Demetrescu, Matei & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Testing heteroskedastic time series for normality," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113221, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Antonio Pacifico, 2021. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR with Multivariate Time-Varying Volatility to Jointly Deal with Structural Changes, Policy Regime Shifts, and Endogeneity Issues," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-35, May.
- Breitung, Jörg & Demetrescu, Matei, 2015. "Instrumental variable and variable addition based inference in predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 358-375.
- Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
- James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2016.
"Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 699-728, June.
- James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Luzzetti, Matthew N. & Neumuller, Seth, 2016. "Learning and the dynamics of consumer unsecured debt and bankruptcies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 22-39.
- Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2017. "Inflation Rates Are Very Different When Housing Rents Are Accurately Measured," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 71, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Combining Forecasts from Nested Models,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, June.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Working Papers 2008-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008.
"Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?,"
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q I), pages 17-50.
Cited by:
- Carrasco, Carlos A., 2013. "El Nuevo Consenso Macroeconómico y la mediocridad del crecimiento económico en México [New Consensus Macroeconomics and the mediocrity of economic growth in Mexico]," MPRA Paper 53391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reicher Christopher Phillip & Utlaut Johannes Friederich, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and real commodity prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35, October.
- Ricardo M. Masolo & Francesca Monti, 2017.
"Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation,"
Discussion Papers
1709, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Riccardo M Masolo & Francesca Monti, 2021. "Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 839-871.
- Masolo, Riccardo & Monti, Francesca, 2015. "Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation," Bank of England working papers 565, Bank of England.
- Masolo, Riccardo M. & Monti, Francesca, 2017. "Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86165, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Francesca Monti & Riccardo Maria Masolo, 2017. "Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation," 2017 Meeting Papers 508, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Maria Demertzis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nicola Viegi, 2008.
"A Measure for Credibility: Tracking US Monetary Developments,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2008/38, European University Institute.
- Demertzis, Maria & Viegi, Nicola & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "A Measure for Credibility: Tracking US Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 7036, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gabriele Galati & Peter Heemeijer & Richhild Moessner, 2011. "How do inflation expectations form? New insights from a high-frequency survey," BIS Working Papers 349, Bank for International Settlements.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019.
"Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kose,Ayhan & Matsuoka,Hideaki & Panizza,Ugo G. & Vorisek,Dana Lauren, 2019. "Inflation Expectations : Review and Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8785, The World Bank.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Ugo Panizza & Dana Vorisek, 2019. "Inflation expectations: Review and evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2019-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Ugo Panizza & Dana Vorisek, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1904, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Bharat Trehan, 2015.
"Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 207-222, February.
- Bharat Trehan, 2009. "Survey measures of expected inflation and the inflation process," Working Paper Series 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Bosworth, Barry & Flaaen, Aaron, 2009. "America's Financial Crisis: The End of an Era," ADBI Working Papers 142, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Bodo Herzog, 2015. "Anchoring of expectations: The role of credible targets in a game experiment," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1-15, December.
- Gerunov, Anton, 2013. "Връзка Между Икономическите Очаквания И Стопанската Динамика В Ес-27 [Linkages Between Expectations and Economic Dynamics in EU-27]," MPRA Paper 68795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reicher, Christopher Phillip & Utlaut, Johannes Friederich, 2011. "The effect of inflation on real commodity prices," Kiel Working Papers 1704, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006.
"The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006.
"Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark, 2006.
"Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587.
- Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587, July.
See citations under working paper version above.- Todd E. Clark, 2003. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 03-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2006.
"The trend growth rate of employment : past, present, and future,"
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 91(Q I), pages 43-85.
Cited by:
- C. Alan Garner, 2008. "Is commercial real estate reliving the 1980s and early 1990s?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q III), pages 89-115.
- Paraskevi Salamaliki, 2015. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Focus on Infrequent Structural Shifts," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-08, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Riccardo DiCecio & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2008. "Changing trends in the labor force: a survey," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jan), pages 47-62.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005.
"Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
See citations under working paper version above.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005.
"The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
Cited by:
- Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010.
"Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?,"
University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics
09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
- Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos & Elena Andreou, 2012. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," 2012 Meeting Papers 1196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Working Paper series 42_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
- Jing Tian & Heather M. Anderson, 2011. "Forecasting Under Strucural Break Uncertainty," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2012. "In-sample tests of predictive ability: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 1-14.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach," Working Papers 2009-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011.
"Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size,"
Working Papers
11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
- Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2013.
"Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution,"
Working Papers
2013.23, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2013. "Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution," IEFE Working Papers 56, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Marzio GALEOTTI & Andrea BASTIANIN & Matteo MANERA, 2013. "Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution," Departmental Working Papers 2013-10, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
- Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Causality and predictability in distribution: The ethanol–food price relation revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 152-160.
- Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2013. "Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution," Working Papers 241, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2013.
- Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2006.
"Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 20-38, February.
- Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," Data 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2013.
"Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link,"
IEFE Working Papers
55, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2013. "Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link," Energy: Resources and Markets 148895, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Marzio GALEOTTI & Andrea BASTIANIN & Matteo MANERA, 2013. "Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link," Departmental Working Papers 2013-11, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
- Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Ethanol and field crops: Is there a price connection?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 53-61.
- Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2013. "Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link," Working Papers 239, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2013.
- Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2013. "Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link," Working Papers 2013.22, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Marilena Furno, 2011. "Goodness of Fit and Misspecification in Quantile Regressions," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 36(1), pages 105-131, February.
- Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2019.
"Stock Returns and Investor Sentiment: Textual Analysis and Social Media,"
Working Papers
19-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2020. "Stock returns and investor sentiment: textual analysis and social media," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 458-485, July.
- Rossi, Barbara & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2005.
"How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Outpot Growth?,"
Working Papers
05-08, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Output Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 783-795, December.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013.
"A predictability test for a small number of nested models,"
Working Paper Series
1580, European Central Bank.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Hubrich, Kirstin & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2014. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 174-185.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011.
"Understanding models' forecasting performance,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 158-172, September.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2009.
"Have Structural Changes Eliminated the Out-of-Sample Ability of Financial Variables To Forecast Real Activity After the Mid-1980s? Evidence From the Canadian Economy,"
Working Papers
0910, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
- Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2012. "Have structural changes eliminated the out-of-sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid-1980s? Evidence from the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3965-3985, October.
- Gantungalag Altansukh & Denise R. Osborn, 2022. "Using structural break inference for forecasting time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 1-41, July.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Zongwu Cai & Linna Chen & Ying Fang, 2013.
"A New Forecasting Model for USD/CNY Exchange Rate,"
Working Papers
2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
- Cai Zongwu & Chen Linna & Fang Ying, 2012. "A New Forecasting Model for USD/CNY Exchange Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, September.
- Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013.
"Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
- Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005.
"Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
2084, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," NBER Working Papers 11468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012.
"Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on Euro-Area inflation?,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
878, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Porqueddu Mario & Venditti Fabrizio, 2014. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on euro-area inflation?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-25, September.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 09-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Working Papers 2009-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015.
"Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators instable?,"
VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy
113079, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
- Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators instable?," Kiel Working Papers 1987, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Fabian Baetje & Lukas Menkhoff, 2016. "Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1552, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody & Milan Nedeljkovic & Lucio Sarno, 2009.
"How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads,"
NBER Working Papers
14904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
- Jing Tian & Qing Zhou, 2018. "Improving equity premium forecasts by incorporating structural break uncertainty," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 619-656, November.
- Yin, Anwen, 2015. "Forecasting and model averaging with structural breaks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005727, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark Strazicich, 2005.
"Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?,"
NBER Working Papers
11487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006. "Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
- Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark C. Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," Working Papers 05-20, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
- Junsoo Lee & John List & Mark Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," Natural Field Experiments 00486, The Field Experiments Website.
- Alessandro Casini, 2018. "Tests for Forecast Instability and Forecast Failure under a Continuous Record Asymptotic Framework," Papers 1803.10883, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
- Pablo Pincheira & Nicolás Hardy & Felipe Muñoz, 2021. "“Go Wild for a While!”: A New Test for Forecast Evaluation in Nested Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-28, September.
- Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak, 2014. "The Relationship Between Stock Returns and Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Social Media," Working Papers 14-38, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Yi-Ting Chen, 2016. "Testing for Granger Causality in Moments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(2), pages 265-288, April.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011.
"Advances in forecast evaluation,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
- Smith Aaron, 2012. "Markov Breaks in Regression Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, May.
- Cremaschini, Alessandro & Maruotti, Antonello, 2023. "A finite mixture analysis of structural breaks in the G-7 gross domestic product series," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 76-90.
- Tian, Jing & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 161-175.
- McGurk, Zachary, 2020. "US real estate inflation prediction: Exchange rates and net foreign assets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-66.
- Brooks, Chris & Burke, Simon P. & Stanescu, Silvia, 2016. "Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 458-474.
- Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolás & Muñoz, Felipe, 2021. ""Go wild for a while!": A new asymptotically Normal test for forecast evaluation in nested models," MPRA Paper 105368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2005. "A note on in-sample and out-of-sample tests for Granger causality," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 453-464.
- Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
- Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2015. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A New Look at the Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 147-159, March.
- Gary Cornwall & Jeffrey A. Mills & Beau A. Sauley & Huibin Weng, 2018. "Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross Validation," BEA Working Papers 0156, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2005.
"Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 369-404.
Cited by:
- Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011.
"Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output,"
Departmental Working Papers
201103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Norman Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2006. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 200619, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2016.
"Government spending shocks in open economy VARs,"
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- Ge Bao & Guoliang Feng, 2018. "Testing the Dividend Discount Model in Housing Markets: the Role of Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 677-701, November.
- Gavin A. Wood & Rachel Ong, 2013. "When and Why Do Landlords Retain Property Investments?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(16), pages 3243-3261, December.
- Winters, John V., 2009. "Wages and prices: Are workers fully compensated for cost of living differences?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 632-643, September.
- Joshua Gallin, 2008. "The Long‐Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 635-658, December.
- Galina An & Charles Becker & Enoch Cheng, 2021. "Bubbling Away: Forecasting Real Estate Prices, Rents, and Bubbles in a Transition Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 263-317, June.
- Petr Zemcik, 2009. "Housing Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Is There a Bubble in the Czech Republic?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp390, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp338, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Sofie R. Waltl, 2016.
"Estimating aggregate quantile-specific gross rental yields for residential housing in Sydney,"
Graz Economics Papers
2016-09, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Todd E. Clark, 1994.
"Nominal GDP targeting rules: can they stabilize the economy?,"
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 79(Q III), pages 11-25.
Cited by:
- Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996.
"Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
- Ray C. Fair & E. Philip Howrey, 1995. "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1091, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Billi, Roberto M., 2012.
"Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules,"
Working Paper Series
260, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
- Thornton, Saranna Robinson, 2000. "How do broader monetary aggregates and divisia measures of money perform in McCallum's adaptive monetary rule?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 181-204.
- Thornton, Saranna R., 1998. "Suitable policy instruments for monetary rules," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 379-397, July.
- Veetil, Vipin P. & Wagner, Richard E., 2018. "Nominal GDP stabilization: Chasing a mirage," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 227-236.
- Ray Fair, 2003.
"Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations,"
Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.
- Ray Fair, 2001. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm202, Yale School of Management, revised 24 Sep 2001.
- Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72.
- Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Bilal Bagis, 2017. "Central Banking in the New Era," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 197-225.
- Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996.
"Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
Chapters
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013.
"Advances in Forecast Evaluation,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201,
Elsevier.
See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.