IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0248432.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty and presidential approval: Evidence from Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Myriam Gómez-Méndez
  • Erwin Hansen

Abstract

This paper analyzes the extent to which economic policy uncertainty affects presidential approval in four Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). Using panel (time-series cross-sectional) estimation methods, we show that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on presidential approval in our sample. A one-standard-deviation increase in the level of economic uncertainty reduces presidential approval by approximately 12 percent. Our results are consistent with the political economy model of Alesina et al. (1993), which shows that voters are less likely to re-elect the incumbent when faced with uncertainty about economic policy. Incumbent competence signalling can exarcerbate this effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Myriam Gómez-Méndez & Erwin Hansen, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and presidential approval: Evidence from Latin America," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0248432
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248432
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248432
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248432&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0248432?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    4. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    5. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    6. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    8. Alesina, Alberto & Londregan, John & Rosenthal, Howard, 1993. "A Model of the Political Economy of the United States," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 12-33, March.
    9. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 799-815, December.
    10. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2020. "Global spillover effects of US uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 71-89.
    11. Rodrigo Cerda & Álvaro Silva & José Tomás Valente, 2018. "Impact of economic uncertainty in a small open economy: the case of Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(26), pages 2894-2908, June.
    12. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    13. Balli, Faruk & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Mudassar, Hasan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Cross-country determinants of economic policy uncertainty spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 179-183.
    14. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.
    15. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
    16. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R., 2009. "Modeling Macro-Political Dynamics," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 113-142, April.
    17. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    18. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    19. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R., 2006. "Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-36, January.
    20. Sattler, Thomas & Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R., 2010. "Democratic Accountability in Open Economies," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 71-97, April.
    21. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    22. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2023. "‘Investing’ in care for old age? An examination of long-term care expenditure dynamics and its spillovers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 1-30, January.
    2. Mohamed Traoré, 2018. "Government spending and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa: A panel VAR analysis," Working Papers hal-01940506, HAL.
    3. Kannyiri Banyen & Nicholas Biekpe, 2020. "Financial integration, competition and bank efficiency: evidence from Africa’s sub-regional markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 495-518, November.
    4. João Leitão & Joaquim Ferreira, 2021. "Dynamic Effects of Material Production and Environmental Sustainability on Economic Vitality Indicators: A Panel VAR Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Cajas-Guijarro, John & Pérez-Almeida, Bryan, 2021. "Comercio, sobreexplotación laboral y ciclos en la periferia: una propuesta teórica y el caso ecuatoriano desde un modelo PVAR. || Trade, super-exploitation of labor power and cycles in the periphery: ," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 31(1), pages 161-197, June.
    6. Mohamed Traoré, 2018. "Government spending and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa: A panel VAR analysis," CERDI Working papers hal-01940506, HAL.
    7. Sigmund, Michael & Ferstl, Robert, 2021. "Panel vector autoregression in R with the package panelvar," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 693-720.
    8. Kacou Yves Thierry Kacou & Yacouba Kassouri & Andrew Adewale Alola & Mehmet Altuntaş, 2022. "Examining the sustainable development approach of migrants' remittances and financial development in sub‐Saharan African countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 804-816, October.
    9. Hyun-Jee Kim & Bongsuk Sung, 2020. "How Knowledge Assets Affect the Learning-by-Exporting Effect: Evidence Using Panel Data for Manufacturing Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Alexandra-Anca Purcel, 2020. "Developing states and the green challenge. A dynamic approach," Post-Print hal-03182341, HAL.
    11. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2021. "Does Public Debt Ownership Structure Matter for a Borrowing Country?," Working Papers REM 2021/0190, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2021. "Uncertainty and Effectiveness of Public Consumption," Working Papers REM 2021/0180, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Alexandra-Anca PURCEL, 2020. "Developing States and the Green Challenge. A Dynamic Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 173-193, July.
    14. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2021. "European depositors’ behavior and crisis sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 117-136.
    15. Hou, Xiaohui & Li, Shuo & Li, Wanli & Wang, Qing, 2018. "Bank diversification and liquidity creation: Panel Granger-causality evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 87-98.
    16. Qureshi, Fiza & Khan, Habib Hussain & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Ghafoor, Abdul & Qureshi, Saba, 2019. "Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 130-150.
    17. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    18. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Paul-Olivier Klein & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2022. "Bank capital and economic activity," Post-Print hal-03955630, HAL.
    20. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0248432. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.