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Singlehanded or joint race? Stock market volatility prediction

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  • Lu, Xinjie
  • Ma, Feng
  • Wang, Jianqiong
  • Dong, Dayong

Abstract

This paper examines whether the realized skewness and kurtosis contain predictability for Shanghai Stock Exchange Sector Index. We find kurtosis contains more information to predict the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sector Index volatility. Importantly, the model considering the combination of both skewness and kurtosis has the best predictability for the stock market volatility. Moreover, we investigate the economic values of the models and asymmetric effects of skewness and kurtosis on stock market volatility, finding skewness (skewness <0) and kurtosis (kurtosis >3) own better forecasting performance. Finally, we discuss the predictability of skewness and kurtosis during two turbulent periods of China's stock bubble and the COVID-19 pandemic.

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  • Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jianqiong & Dong, Dayong, 2022. "Singlehanded or joint race? Stock market volatility prediction," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 734-754.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:80:y:2022:i:c:p:734-754
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.03.007
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