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Quantile Granger Causality in the Presence of Instability

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  • Alexander Mayer
  • Dominik Wied
  • Victor Troster

Abstract

We propose a new framework for assessing Granger causality in quantiles in unstable environments, for a fixed quantile or over a continuum of quantile levels. Our proposed test statistics are consistent against fixed alternatives, they have nontrivial power against local alternatives, and they are pivotal in certain important special cases. In addition, we show the validity of a bootstrap procedure when asymptotic distributions depend on nuisance parameters. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the proposed test statistics have correct empirical size and high power, even in absence of structural breaks. Moreover, a procedure providing additional insight into the timing of Granger causal regimes based on our new tests is proposed. Finally, an empirical application in energy economics highlights the applicability of our method as the new tests provide stronger evidence of Granger causality.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Mayer & Dominik Wied & Victor Troster, 2024. "Quantile Granger Causality in the Presence of Instability," Papers 2402.09744, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2402.09744
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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