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Testing For A Change In Correlation At An Unknown Point In Time Using An Extended Functional Delta Method

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  • Wied, Dominik
  • Krämer, Walter
  • Dehling, Herold

Abstract

We propose a new test against a change in correlation at an unknown point in time based on cumulated sums of empirical correlations. The test does not require that inputs are independent and identically distributed under the null. We derive its limiting null distribution using a new functional delta method argument, provide a formula for its local power for particular types of structural changes, give some Monte Carlo evidence on its finite-sample behavior, and apply it to recent stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Wied, Dominik & Krämer, Walter & Dehling, Herold, 2012. "Testing For A Change In Correlation At An Unknown Point In Time Using An Extended Functional Delta Method," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(03), pages 570-589, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:28:y:2012:i:03:p:570-589_00
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    1. repec:pal:assmgt:v:19:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1057_s41260-017-0062-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Berens, Tobias & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Wied, Dominik, 2015. "Testing for structural breaks in correlations: Does it improve Value-at-Risk forecasting?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 135-152.
    3. Hoga, Yannick, 2017. "Monitoring multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 105-121.
    4. Likai Chen & Weining Wang & Wei Biao Wu, 2017. "Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model with a Common Break," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Pape, Katharina & Wied, Dominik & Galeano, Pedro, 2016. "Monitoring multivariate variance changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 54-68.
    6. repec:spr:testjl:v:26:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11749-016-0513-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2015. "Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 93-111.
    8. repec:taf:jnlasa:v:112:y:2017:i:518:p:706-720 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "Oil and stock markets before and after financial crises: A local Gaussian correlation approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(12), pages 1179-1204, December.
    10. Philip Bertram & Robinson Kruse & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2013. "Fractional integration versus level shifts: the case of realized asset correlations," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 977-991, November.
    11. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2013. "Financialization in Commodity Markets: Disentangling the Crisis from the Style Effect," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79949, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Tobias Berens & Dominik Wied & Daniel Ziggel, 2014. "Automated Portfolio Optimization Based on a New Test for Structural Breaks," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(2), pages 243-264, April.
    13. Holger Dette & Dominik Wied, 2016. "Detecting relevant changes in time series models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(2), pages 371-394, March.
    14. repec:eee:jbfina:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:9-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Wied, Dominik & Dehling, Herold & van Kampen, Maarten & Vogel, Daniel, 2014. "A fluctuation test for constant Spearman’s rho with nuisance-free limit distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 723-736.
    16. Horváth, Lajos & Reeder, Ron, 2012. "Detecting changes in functional linear models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 310-334.
    17. Dominik Wied & Matthias Arnold & Nicolai Bissantz & Daniel Ziggel, 2013. "Über die Anwendbarkeit eines neuen Fluktuationstests für Korrelationen auf Finanzzeitreihen," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 6(3), pages 87-103, March.
    18. Dominik Wied & Matthias Arnold & Nicolai Bissantz & Daniel Ziggel, 2012. "A new fluctuation test for constant variances with applications to finance," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 75(8), pages 1111-1127, November.
    19. Lajos Horváth & Gregory Rice, 2014. "Extensions of some classical methods in change point analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 219-255, June.
    20. Galeano, Pedro & Wied, Dominik, 2014. "Multiple break detection in the correlation structure of random variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 262-282.
    21. Adams, Zeno & Füss, Roland & Glück, Thorsten, 2017. "Are correlations constant? Empirical and theoretical results on popular correlation models in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-24.
    22. Adams, Zeno & Glueck, Thorsten, 2014. "Financialization in Commodity Markets: A Passing Trend or the New Normal?," Working Papers on Finance 1413, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Aug 2015.
    23. Bücher, Axel & Jäschke, Stefan & Wied, Dominik, 2015. "Nonparametric tests for constant tail dependence with an application to energy and finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 154-168.

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