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Fiscal policy in contemporary DSGE models

  • Virginia Queijo von Heideken

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Ferre De Graeve

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

The role of fiscal policy in DSGE models has long been ignored. Recent evidence from reduced-form VARs (Sims (2011)), event-studies (Leeper et al. (2012)) and structural models (Fernández-Vilaverde et al. (2012)) shows that information about fiscal variables can add to macroeconomic models. To strongly convey the point that DSGE models should take fiscal policy seriously, we show that even without any information on fiscal variables standard contemporary DSGE models map historical fluctuations to fiscal policy. We estimate a version of the Smets-Wouters model and show that the model interprets changes in long-term interest rates, unrelated to current short rates, as news about fiscal policy through the effect it may have on future inflation. This interpretation is exactly the one Sims (2011) and Leeper and Walker (2012) argue for.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 74.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:74
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  1. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2009. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 09-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Antonio Moreno & Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho, 2004. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," 2004 Meeting Papers 388, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
  4. André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  6. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2008. "Learning, Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 191-245 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," CQER Working Paper 2010-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/23, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  9. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2011. "Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 11-E-2, Bank of Japan.
  10. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
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