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Evaluación de la capacidad predictiva del índice de percepción del consumidor
[Assessing the predictive power of the consumer perception index]

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  • Acuña, Guillermo

Abstract

In this paper the ability of the Economic Perception Index, IPECO, to predict aggregate consumption and other macroeconomic variables is studied. The accuracy of the predictions is improved when IPECO is used as predictor of consumption, in comparison with the predictions of an autoregressive model. The predictive ability of IPECO is higher than the one of its components and, among the components, the most informative are the expectations indexes

Suggested Citation

  • Acuña, Guillermo, 2017. "Evaluación de la capacidad predictiva del índice de percepción del consumidor [Assessing the predictive power of the consumer perception index]," MPRA Paper 83154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:83154
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83154/1/MPRA_paper_83154.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    confianza; consumidor; prediccion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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