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Inflation expectations and low inflation in New Zealand

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Abstract

This paper finds that the changing behaviour of inflation expectations can explain much of the unusually low inflation in New Zealand. Across several empirical specifications of the Phillips curve, we observe that inflation expectations have become more backward-looking. We also find that the speed of adjustment in inflation expectations, proxied by the spread between short- and longer-term inflation expectations, can explain the unusually low inflation.

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  • Özer Karagedikli & Dr John McDermott, 2016. "Inflation expectations and low inflation in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2016/09
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2022. "Households’ inflation perceptions and expectations: survey evidence from New Zealand," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 185-217, February.
    2. Adam Richardson, 2019. "New Zealand Wage Inflation Post-crisis," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2019-02, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Jul 2019.
    3. Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 343-361, September.
    4. Ekananda, Mahjus, 2022. "Role of macroeconomic determinants on the natural resource commodity prices: Indonesia futures volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    6. Chris McDonald, 2017. "Does past inflation predict the future?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2017/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Scobie, Grant M, 2020. "If Bill Phillips were Governor ...? Some implications of his work for contemporary macroeconomic policy," Working Paper Series 21096, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    8. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2023. "Do consumers actually monitor the inflation rate? Evidence from New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 1-8, January.
    9. Nguyen, Luan, 2016. "Should the Reserve Bank worry about the exchange rate?," MPRA Paper 75519, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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