IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v58y2025i4d10.1007_s10644-025-09895-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy stance and foreign currency lending: evidence from a persistently dollarized emerging market

Author

Listed:
  • Onder Ozgur

    (Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University)

  • Murat Aslan

    (Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University)

Abstract

This study explores how central bank policy changes influence Turkish banks’ foreign currency lending in one of the most dollarized emerging markets. Using quarterly data from 2002Q4 to 2024Q3 and applying a Bayesian Additive Regression Trees model within a machine learning framework, we uncover that higher policy rates amplify foreign currency lending—especially among larger banks—thereby weakening monetary transmission. The analysis also highlights the nonlinear and asymmetric effects of deposit dollarization, bank size, and macroeconomic conditions. These findings offer new insights into the structural constraints of monetary policy under persistent dollarization, with direct implications for policy design in similar economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Onder Ozgur & Murat Aslan, 2025. "Monetary policy stance and foreign currency lending: evidence from a persistently dollarized emerging market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1-34, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:58:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-025-09895-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-025-09895-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10644-025-09895-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10644-025-09895-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehmet Ulug & Sayım Işık & Mehmet Mert, 2023. "The effectiveness of ultra-loose monetary policy in a high inflation economy: a time-varying causality analysis for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2855-2887, August.
    2. Piti Disyatat, 2011. "The Bank Lending Channel Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 711-734, June.
    3. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 979-1022, August.
    5. Stefania Albanesi & Domonkos F. Vamossy, 2019. "Predicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning Approach," Papers 1908.11498, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    6. Justin Sirignano & Apaar Sadhwani & Kay Giesecke, 2016. "Deep Learning for Mortgage Risk," Papers 1607.02470, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    7. Tafirei Mashamba, 2022. "Liquidity Dynamics of Banks in Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(1), pages 179-206.
    8. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Solanko, Laura & Weill, Laurent, 2014. "Does competition influence the bank lending channel in the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 356-366.
    9. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2009. "Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1860-1873, October.
    10. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    11. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:27:y:2012:i:69:p:57-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:27:y:2012:i:69:p:57-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. M. Emranul Haque & Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2009. "Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 114, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    15. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 69-87.
    16. Ahmet Sengonul & Willem Thorbecke, 2005. "The effect of monetary policy on bank lending in Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(13), pages 931-934.
    17. Nada Mora, 2013. "The Bank Lending Channel in a Partially Dollarized Economy," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 121-151, May.
    18. Arteta Carlos O., 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Currency Mismatches in Bank Intermediation?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, May.
    19. Basso, Henrique S. & Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Jurgilas, Marius, 2011. "Financial dollarization: The role of foreign-owned banks and interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 794-806, April.
    20. Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas, 2012. "Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe [Capital structure and financial risk: evidence from foreign debt use in East Asia]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 57-98.
    21. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    22. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:45:p:61-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Mustafa Caglayan & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2021. "Dollarization, Pass-through, and Domestic Lending: Evidence from Turkish Banking," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(11), pages 3190-3201, September.
    24. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:45:p:61-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    2. Elisabeth Beckmann & Anita Roitner & Helmut Stix, 2015. "A Local or a Foreign Currency Loan? Evidence on the Role of Loan Characteristics, Preferences of Households and the Effect of Foreign Banks," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 24-48.
    3. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2020. "Cross-Border Spillovers in Foreign Currency Credit," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2002, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2010. "Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 257-282, August.
    8. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    9. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
    10. Erick W. Rengifo & Emre Ozsoz & Mustapha A. Akinkunmi & Eduardo Court, 2013. "Bank Regulation in Dollarized Economies: The Case of Turkey," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(4), pages 1-17, November.
    11. Andrii Kaminskyi & Nataliia Versal, 2018. "Risk Management of Dollarization in Banking: Case of Post-Soviet Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 14(2), pages 21-40.
    12. Mariya Hake & Fernando Lopez-Vicente & Luis Molina, 2014. "Do the Drivers of Loan Dollarization Differ between CESEE and Latin America? A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-35.
    13. Judit Temesvary, 2016. "The drivers of foreign currency-based banking in Central and Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 233-257, April.
    14. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "Foreign currency lending in Albania," MPRA Paper 79087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Institutions and financial dollarization: Indirect effects based on a policy experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 405-410.
    16. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    17. Olta Manjani, 2015. "Estimating the Determinants of Financial Euroization in Albania," IHEID Working Papers 07-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    18. Elisabeth Beckmann & Sandra Dvorsky & Thomas Scheiber, 2011. "OeNB Euro Survey: Growing Uncertainty, but Overall Euroization Not Affected," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 88-99.
    19. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:171:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Zhang, Zhongxia & Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Foreign Exchange Reserve Movements? Financial Dollarization in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 120822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 69-87.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:58:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-025-09895-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.