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The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation

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  • Todd E. Clark
  • Matthew V. Gordon

Abstract

Since early 2021, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Using a combination of data, economic theory, and narrative information around historical events, we empirically assess what has caused persistently elevated inflation. Our estimates suggest that both aggregate demand and supply factors, including supply chain disruptions, have contributed significantly to high inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd E. Clark & Matthew V. Gordon, 2023. "The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:96111
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202308
    Note: Download the appendix - https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/economic-commentary/2023/ec-202308-impacts-supply-chain-disruptions-on-inflation/ec_supply-chains_appendix.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "What drives inflation? Disentangling demand and supply factors," BIS Working Papers 1047, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Staff Reports 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Yuzuka Kashiwagi & Yasuyuki Todo & Petr Matous, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through global supply chains—Evidence from Hurricane Sandy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1186-1220, November.
    4. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 685-720, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paula Bejarano Carbo, 2024. "The Nature of the Inflationary Surprise in Europe and the USA," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 554, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Jan Schulz & Kerstin Hötte & Daniel M. Mayerhoffer, 2024. "Pluralist economics in an era of polycrisis," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 201-218, September.
    3. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Christopher Healy & Chengcheng Jia, 2023. "Monetary Policy since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Path-Dependent Interpretation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(12), pages 1-8, July.
    5. Mirjana Miletic, Danilo Cerovic and Aleksandar Tomin & Mirjana Miletic & Danilo Cerovic & Aleksandar Tomin, 2023. "Impact of global supply disruptions and energy prices on inflation in European countries," Working Papers Bulletin 19, National Bank of Serbia.

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    Keywords

    Covid-19; Inflation;

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