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How Anchored Are Short-Run Inflation Expectations Today? A Look at What Consumers and Forecasters Are Telling Us

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Abstract

Policymakers emphasize the importance of “well-anchored” inflation expectations to ensure that price- and wage-setting behavior does not become entrenched in a high-inflation cycle, helping central banks to maintain price stability and achieve their inflation objectives. Motivated by concerns about trade tensions in the aftermath of high pandemic-era inflation, we examine the anchoring of consumers’ and professional forecasters’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations for evidence of recent weakening. While the inflation expectations of professional forecasters remain well-anchored, there has been a notable deterioration in consumers’ inflation expectations’ anchoring in 2025 comparable to that in the late 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Cline & Robert W. Rich, 2026. "How Anchored Are Short-Run Inflation Expectations Today? A Look at What Consumers and Forecasters Are Telling Us," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2026(01), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:102394
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202601
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