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War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation

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  • Otaviano Canuto

Abstract

The war in Ukraine is bringing substantial financial, commodity price, and supply chain shocks to the global economy. Sanctions on Russia are already having a significant impact on its financial system and its economy. Price shocks will have a global impact. Energy and commodity prices—including wheat and other grains—have risen, intensifying inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and the recovery from the pandemic. The push toward relative deglobalization received from the pandemic will get stronger. One may expect an increasing weight of geopolitics in international payments and in the access to special commodities.

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  • Otaviano Canuto, 2022. "War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation," Policy briefs on Economic Trends and Policies 2213, Policy Center for the New South.
    • Handle: RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_18-22
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    1. Oya Celasun & Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Mariano Spector & Jing Zhou, 2022. "Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?," IMF Working Papers 2022/031, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Staff Reports 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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