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Are Fiscal Transfers Inflationary?

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Abstract

We assess the inflationary effects of fiscal transfers by leveraging advances in the identification of fiscal policy shocks within the recently proposed rotation-invariant time-varying structural vector autoregression. Our analysis suggests that fiscal transfer shocks account for a sizable share of the early post-pandemic increase in the price level through mid-2021. Thereafter, the rise in the price level is dominated by adverse supply shocks (especially supply-chain disruptions), while demand shocks mainly matter later for the lift-off in short-term interest rates. In addition, we find that fiscal transfers were essential for preventing a decline in real output per capita similar to the one experienced during the Great Depression.

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  • Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2026. "Are Fiscal Transfers Inflationary?," Working Papers 26-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103152
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.23
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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