IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ocp/pbcoen/pb_18-22.html

War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation

Author

Listed:
  • Otaviano Canuto

Abstract

The war in Ukraine is bringing substantial financial, commodity price, and supply chain shocks to the global economy. Sanctions on Russia are already having a significant impact on its financial system and its economy. Price shocks will have a global impact. Energy and commodity prices—including wheat and other grains—have risen, intensifying inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and the recovery from the pandemic. The push toward relative deglobalization received from the pandemic will get stronger. One may expect an increasing weight of geopolitics in international payments and in the access to special commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Otaviano Canuto, 2022. "War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation," Policy briefs on Commodities & Energy 2210, Policy Center for the New South.
    • Handle: RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb_18-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2022-03/PB_18-22_Canuto_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Staff Reports 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Oya Celasun & Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Mariano Spector & Jing Zhou, 2022. "Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?," IMF Working Papers 2022/031, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ocp:ppaper:pb30-22 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ocp:rpcoen:pb_18-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aastveit, Knut Are & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Cross, Jamie L. & Kalstad, Helene O., 2026. "Unveiling inflation: Oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Matthew V. Gordon, 2023. "The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, May.
    5. Cevik, Serhan & Gwon, Gyowon, 2024. "This is going to hurt: Weather anomalies, supply chain pressures and inflation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Platitas, Reizle Jade C. & Ocampo, Jan Christopher G., 2025. "From bottlenecks to inflation: Impact of global supply-chain disruptions on inflation in select Asian economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 6(1).
    7. repec:ocp:rpaeco:pb_18-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zhou, Youcheng & Li, Bingchen & Zhao, Mengqi, 2025. "Asymmetric association between supply chain bottlenecks and consumer energy prices: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.
    10. Dhanashree Somani & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Vasilios Plakandaras, 2025. "Supply Bottlenecks and Machine Learning Forecasting of International Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 202521, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Gloria Allione & Claire Giordano, 2023. "Are the Happy Few still happy? Exporter heterogeneity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 816, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Nöller, Marvin & Balleer, Almut, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277638, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Ángel Ubide, 2022. "The Inflation Surge of 2021–22: Scarcity of Goods and Commodities, Strong Labor Markets and Anchored Inflation Expectations," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(2), pages 93-98, March.
    14. Raza, Hamid & Laurentjoye, Thibault & Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup & Valdecantos, Sebastian, 2023. "Inflation and the role of macroeconomic policies: A model for the case of Denmark," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 32-43.
    15. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    16. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    17. Cavallo, Alberto & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2023. "What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Do Shortages Forecast Aggregate and Sectoral U.S. Stock Market Realized Variance? Evidence from a Century of Data," Working Papers 202450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Szyszko Magdalena & Kliber Agata & Motuzka Olena, 2025. "Changes in the inflation expectations of consumers and professionals during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: The case of Ukraine and Poland," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 61(4), pages 14-24.
    20. J. Verschuur & E. E. Koks & J. W. Hall, 2022. "Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    21. David Cronin, 2022. "Inflation Shocks – Do Monetary Variables Matter?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(2), pages 182-188, June.
    22. Ke, Jian-yu & Cho, Woohyun & Su, Hao, 2025. "Flying through uncertainty: Air transportation’s impact on supply chain resilience and inventory efficiency," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb_18-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Policy Center for the New South's Customer service The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Policy Center for the New South's Customer service to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ocppcma.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.