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The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange

  • Skjeltorp, Johannes

    (Norges Bank)

  • Ødegaard, Bernt Arne

    ()

    (University of Stavanger)

We investigate the information content of aggregate stock market liquidity and ask whether it may be a useful realtime indicator, both for financial stress, and real economic activity in Norway. We describe the development in a set of liquidity proxies at the Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE) for the period 1980-2008, with particular focus on crisis period 2007 through 2008, showing how market liquidity and trading activity changed for the whole market as well as for individual industry sectors. We also evaluate the predictive power of market liquidity for economic growth both in-sample and out-of-sample.

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File URL: http://www1.uis.no/ansatt/odegaard/uis_wps_econ_fin/uis_wps_2009_35_skjeltorp_odegaard.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Stavanger in its series UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 2009/35.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2009_035
Contact details of provider: Postal: University of Stavanger, NO-4036 Stavanger, Norway
Web page: http://www.uis.no/research/economics_and_finance

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  1. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," NBER Working Papers 10814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  3. Albuquerque, Rui & de Francisco, Eva & Marques, Luis, 2006. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 5604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  6. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 0. "What Does Equity Sector Orderflow Tell Us About the Economy?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3688-3730.
  8. Gibson, Rajna & Mougeot, Nicolas, 2004. "The pricing of systematic liquidity risk: Empirical evidence from the US stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 157-178, January.
  9. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Holden, Craig W. & Trzcinka, Charles A., 2009. "Do liquidity measures measure liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 153-181, May.
  10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
  11. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
  12. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  13. repec:oup:rfinst:v:24:y:2011:i:11:p:3688-3730 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
  15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  16. Vassalou, Maria, 2003. "News related to future GDP growth as a risk factor in equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 47-73, April.
  17. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
  18. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Ukhov, Andrey D., 2009. "Stock and Bond Market Liquidity: A Long-Run Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 189-212, February.
  19. Goyenko, Ruslan & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2010. "Flight to Liquidity and Global Equity Returns," MPRA Paper 27546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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