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What Does Equity Sector Orderflow Tell Us About the Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Beber
  • Michael W. Brandt
  • Kenneth A. Kavajecz

Abstract

Investors rebalance their portfolios as their views about expected returns and risk change. We use empirical measures of portfolio rebalancing to back out investors' views, specifically, their views about the state of the economy. We show that aggregate portfolio rebalancing across equity sectors is consistent with sector rotation, an investment strategy that exploits perceived differences in the relative performance of sectors at different stages of the business cycle. The empirical footprint of sector rotation has predictive power for the evolution of the economy and future bond market returns, even after controlling for relative sector returns. Contrary to many theories of price formation, trading activity, therefore, contains information that is not entirely revealed by resulting relative price changes. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2011. "What Does Equity Sector Orderflow Tell Us About the Economy?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3688-3730.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:24:y::i:11:p:3688-3730
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhr067
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    Cited by:

    1. Mashabela, Juliet & Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "The behaviour of disaggregated transitory and potential output over the economic cycle," MPRA Paper 84422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2009. "The implications of liquidity and order flows for neoclassical finance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 527-532, November.
    3. Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
    4. Galariotis, Emilios & Giouvris, Evangelos, 2015. "On the stock market liquidity and the business cycle: A multi country approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 44-69.
    5. Maobin Wang & Chun Qiu & Dongmin Kong, 2011. "Corporate Social Responsibility, Investor Behaviors, and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 101(1), pages 127-141, June.
    6. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Maurizio Luisi, 2013. "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," NBER Working Papers 19650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:301-312 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Warren Bailey & Lin Zheng & Yinggang Zhou, 2012. "What Makes the VIX Tick?," Working Papers 222012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Robert S. Chirinko & Christopher Curran, 2013. "Greenspan Shrugs: Central Bank Communication, Formal Pronouncements and Bond Market Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 4236, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Muñoz, Francisco, 2013. "Liquidity and firm investment: Evidence for Latin America," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 18-29.
    11. Lynch, Andrew & Nikolic, Biljana & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling) & Yu, Han, 2014. "Aggregate short selling, commonality, and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 199-229.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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