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Rare disaster concerns and economic fluctuations

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  • Hao, Yijun
  • Su, Hao
  • Zhu, Xiaoneng

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence that disaster risk concerns predict real economic fluctuations. We construct a forward-looking disaster concerns measure using Manela and Moreira (2017) indicators. Consistent with theories on rare disaster risks and macro-economy, this measure forecasts future economic activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao, Yijun & Su, Hao & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2020. "Rare disaster concerns and economic fluctuations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520302810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109454
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disaster risk; Predictability; Economic forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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