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Financial stress and returns predictability: Fresh evidence from China

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  • Xu, Yongan
  • Liang, Chao
  • Wang, Jianqiong

Abstract

Our paper examines the implication of the China financial stress index (CNFSI) constructed by Park and Mercado (2014) on asset pricing. First, the CNFSI has a significant negative relationship with subsequent stock market returns, the statistics of in-sample R2 and out-of-sample ROS2 estimated by the predictive regression model are 5.078% and 5.881%, respectively. Second, from the statistical evidence, the predictive effect of the CNFSI is significantly better than that of popular macroeconomic variables and other existing financial stress indices for both in- and out-of-sample periods. Third, according to the results of a long-horizon analysis, the CNFSI has better predictive power for returns during bull markets than during bear markets. Finally, these interesting results are verified by a set of robustness tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao & Wang, Jianqiong, 2023. "Financial stress and returns predictability: Fresh evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:78:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x2300046x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.101980
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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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