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Has Trend Inflation Shifted?: An Empirical Analysis with a Regime-Switching Model

Author

Listed:
  • Sohei Kaihatsu

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Jouchi Nakajima

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new econometric framework for estimating trend inflation and the slope of the Phillips curve with a regime-switching model. As a unique aspect of our approach, we assume regimes for the trend inflation at one-percent intervals, and estimate the probability of the trend inflation being in each regime. The trend inflation described in the discrete manner provides for an easily interpretable explanation of estimation results as well as a robust estimate. An empirical result indicates that Japan's trend inflation stayed at zero percent for about 15 years after the late 1990s, and then shifted away from zero percent after the introduction of the price stability target and the quantitative and qualitative monetary easing. The U.S. result shows a considerably stable trend inflation at two percent since the late 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Sohei Kaihatsu & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Has Trend Inflation Shifted?: An Empirical Analysis with a Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-3, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp15e03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshihiko Hogen & Ryoichi Okuma, 2018. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Learning-Approach Perspective," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    2. Hattori, Masazumi & Yetman, James, 2017. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-68.
    3. Tatsushi Okuda & Tomohiro Tsuruga & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "Imperfect Information, Shock Heterogeneity, and Inflation Dynamics," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Shinichi Nishioka, 2016. "Does a Higher Frequency of Micro-level Price Changes Matter for Macro Price Stickiness?: Assessing the Impact of Temporary Price Changes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    5. Koji Takahashi, 2016. "TIPS: The Trend Inflation Projection System and Estimation Results," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    6. Gee Hee Hong & Rahul Anand & Yaroslav Hul, 2019. "Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target," IMF Working Papers 2019/229, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Sohei Kaihatsu & Mitsuru Katagiri & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2017. "Phillips Curve and Price-Change Distribution under Declining Trend Inflation," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    8. Dunne, Peter & Everett, Mary & Stuart, Rebecca, 2015. "The Expanded Asset Purchase Programme – What, Why and How of Euro Area QE," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 61-71, July.
    9. Hiroshi Ugai, 2015. "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 060, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    10. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Trend inflation and monetary policy regimes in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 137-152.
    11. Lojschova, Adriana, 2017. "Did quantitative easing boost bank lending? The Slovak experience," MPRA Paper 79567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sohei Kaihatsu & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2016. "Firms' Inflation Expectations and Wage-setting Behaviors," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    13. Hiroshi Ugai, "undated". "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," Working Papers e102, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    14. OKIMOTO, Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Expected Inflation Regimes in Japan," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-41, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. MIYAO Ryuzo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Discussion papers 17065, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Regime-switching model; Trend inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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