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Forecasting Realized Stock-Market Volatility: Do Industry Returns have Predictive Value?

Author

Listed:
  • Riza Demirer

    (Department of Economics & Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL 62026-1102)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

Yes, they do. Utilizing a machine-learning technique known as random forests to compute forecasts of realized (good and bad) stock market volatility, we show that incorporating the information in lagged industry returns can help improve out-of sample forecasts of aggregate stock market volatility. While the predictive contribution of industry level returns is not constant over time, industrials and materials play a dominant predictive role during the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, highlighting the informational value of real economic activity on stock market volatility dynamics. Finally, we show that incorporating lagged industry returns in aggregate level volatility forecasts benefits forecasters who are particularly concerned about under-predicting market volatility, yielding greater economic benefits for forecasters as the degree of risk aversion increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Forecasting Realized Stock-Market Volatility: Do Industry Returns have Predictive Value?," Working Papers 2020107, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:2020107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiawen Luo & Oguzhan Cepni & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting Multivariate Volatilities with Exogenous Predictors: An Application to Industry Diversification Strategies," Working Papers 202258, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Realized volatility; Industry returns; Market efficiency and information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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