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The information content of forward moments

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  • Andreou, Panayiotis C.
  • Kagkadis, Anastasios
  • Philip, Dennis
  • Taamouti, Abderrahim

Abstract

We estimate the term structures of risk-neutral forward variance and skewness, and examine their predictive power for equity market excess returns and variance. We use Partial Least Squares to extract a single predictive factor from each term structure that is motivated by the theoretical implications of affine no-arbitrage models. The empirical analysis shows that an increased forward variance factor, FVF (forward skewness factor, FSF) corresponds to a more negatively sloped forward variance (more U-shaped forward skewness) term structure, and significantly forecasts higher future market excess returns and variance. More importantly, FSF exhibits predictive power for market returns that is stronger than, and incremental to, that provided by FVF. However, it does not outperform FVF in terms of excess variance predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2019. "The information content of forward moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 527-541.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:106:y:2019:i:c:p:527-541
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.07.021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward moments; Implied volatility surface; Partial least squares; Predictability of stock returns; Equity premium; Variance premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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