IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2604.07870.html

Skewness Dispersion and Stock Market Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Mykola Babiak
  • Jozef Barunik
  • Josef Kurka

Abstract

Cross-sectional dispersion in firm-level realized skewness is significantly and negatively related to future stock market returns. The predictive power of skewness dispersion is robust to in-sample and out-of-sample estimation and is incremental over a broad set of existing predictors, with only a few alternatives retaining independent explanatory ability. Skewness dispersion also delivers substantial economic gains in portfolio allocation. Its forecasting power is concentrated in months with monetary policy announcements, reflecting an information-based mechanism. The empirical evidence suggests that skewness dispersion captures the gradual incorporation of macro news into prices, which is driven by variation in aggregate risk and valuation adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik & Josef Kurka, 2026. "Skewness Dispersion and Stock Market Returns," Papers 2604.07870, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2604.07870
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2604.07870
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2019. "The information content of forward moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 527-541.
    2. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.
    3. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    5. Alexandros Kostakis & Tassos Magdalinos & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2015. "Robust Econometric Inference for Stock Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1506-1553.
    6. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
    7. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    9. Bryan Kelly & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Market Expectations in the Cross-Section of Present Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1721-1756, October.
    10. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    11. Pollet, Joshua M. & Wilson, Mungo, 2010. "Average correlation and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 364-380, June.
    12. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    13. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    14. Rapach, David E. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C. & Zhou, Guofu, 2016. "Short interest and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 46-65.
    15. Brian H. Boyer & Keith Vorkink, 2014. "Stock Options as Lotteries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1485-1527, August.
    16. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    17. Jondeau, Eric & Zhang, Qunzi & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2019. "Average skewness matters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 29-47.
    18. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
    19. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch & Athanasse Zafirov, 2024. "A Comprehensive 2022 Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(11), pages 3490-3557.
    20. Brian Boyer & Todd Mitton & Keith Vorkink, 2010. "Expected Idiosyncratic Skewness," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 169-202, January.
    21. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2014. "Editor's Choice Tail Risk and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 2841-2871.
    22. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    23. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    24. Chen, Jian & Tang, Guohao & Yao, Jiaquan & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Investor Attention and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 455-484, March.
    25. Ian W. R. Martin & Christian Wagner, 2019. "What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1887-1929, August.
    26. Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar & Eric Ghysels, 2013. "Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 85-124, February.
    27. Bali, Turan G. & Murray, Scott, 2013. "Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Option Portfolio Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1145-1171, August.
    28. Maio, Paulo, 2016. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-109.
    29. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    30. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    31. Mete Kilic & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2019. "Good and Bad Variance Premia and Expected Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2522-2544, June.
    32. Bing Han & Gang Li, 2021. "Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1249-1269, February.
    33. Liu, Lily Y. & Patton, Andrew J. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2015. "Does anything beat 5-minute RV? A comparison of realized measures across multiple asset classes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 293-311.
    34. Byun, Suk-Joon & Kim, Da-Hea, 2016. "Gambling preference and individual equity option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 155-174.
    35. Amaya, Diego & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2015. "Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of equity returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-167.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    2. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2021. "Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Zhou, Mingtao, 2025. "Option-implied idiosyncratic skewness and expected returns: Mind the long run," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Jondeau, Eric & Zhang, Qunzi & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2019. "Average skewness matters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 29-47.
    5. Kothari, Pratik & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2023. "Job postings and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Dai, Zhifeng & Jiang, Fuwei & Kang, Jie & Xue, Bowen, 2025. "Stock return predictability in the frequency domain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1126-1147.
    7. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Tang, Guohao & Yu, Jiasheng, 2024. "Global mispricing matters," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Zhang, Huajing, 2023. "International stock return predictability: The role of U.S. uncertainty spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Huang, Dashan & Li, Jiangyuan & Wang, Liyao, 2021. "Are disagreements agreeable? Evidence from information aggregation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 83-101.
    10. Yu, Junhong & Ruan, Xinfeng & Fan, Zheqi, 2025. "Merton (1976) implied jump," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Shi, Qi, 2023. "The RP-PCA factors and stock return predictability: An aligned approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
    14. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Risk-neutral moments in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 583-600.
    15. Arseny Gorbenko & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2023. "Short Interest and Aggregate Stock Returns: International Evidence," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 691-733.
    16. Yuan, Ying & Qu, Yong & Wang, Tianyang, 2025. "Predicting risk premiums: A constraint-based model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: Extracting what has been left," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    18. Xianfeng Hao & Yudong Wang, 2023. "Cloud cover and expected oil returns," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Bing Han & Gang Li, 2021. "Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1249-1269, February.
    20. Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Apergis, Iraklis & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2023. "Equity premium prediction: The role of information from the options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2604.07870. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.