IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v122y2021ics037842662030248x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Country governance and international equity returns

Author

Listed:
  • Marshall, Ben R.
  • Nguyen, Hung T.
  • Nguyen, Nhut H.
  • Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat

Abstract

Monthly returns in countries with strong governance lead monthly returns in weak governance countries. This predictability holds in and out-of-sample at both the group and individual country levels. Moreover, the predictability is not fully explained by other related possible sources of cross-country predictability such as differences in country development, political risk, size, liquidity, short-selling constraints, the predictive ability of U.S. equity returns, or non-synchronous trading. It appears that equity returns in different countries react to value-relevant world information at different speeds based on their levels of country governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2021. "Country governance and international equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:122:y:2021:i:c:s037842662030248x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105986
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037842662030248X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105986?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2007. "Do industries lead stock markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 367-396, February.
    3. R. Gaston Gelos & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2005. "Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2987-3020, December.
    4. Söhnke M. Bartram & John M. Griffin & Tae-Hoon Lim & David T. Ng, 2015. "How Important Are Foreign Ownership Linkages for International Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3036-3072.
    5. Thorsten Beck & Chen Lin & Yue Ma, 2014. "Why Do Firms Evade Taxes? The Role of Information Sharing and Financial Sector Outreach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 763-817, April.
    6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
    7. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    8. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    9. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediaries: Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 291-321, May.
    10. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    11. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2012. "International shock transmission after the Lehman Brothers collapse – evidence from syndicated lending," Working Papers 142, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    12. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    13. Mech, Timothy S., 1993. "Portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 307-344, December.
    14. Yakov Amihud & Clifford M. Hurvich & Yi Wang, 2009. "Multiple-Predictor Regressions: Hypothesis Testing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 413-434, January.
    15. Johnson, Simon & Boone, Peter & Breach, Alasdair & Friedman, Eric, 2000. "Corporate governance in the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 141-186.
    16. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    17. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    18. Lai, Sandy & Ng, Lilian & Zhang, Bohui, 2014. "Does PIN affect equity prices around the world?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 178-195.
    19. John M. Griffin & Nicholas H. Hirschey & Patrick J. Kelly, 2011. "How Important Is the Financial Media in Global Markets?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3941-3992.
    20. Perotti, Enrico C. & van Oijen, Pieter, 2001. "Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 43-69, February.
    21. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    22. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    23. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    24. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    25. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2011. "What Segments Equity Markets?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3841-3890.
    26. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Melgar, Natalia, 2018. "Country transparency and the global transmission of financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 56-72.
    27. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2015. "Frontier market transaction costs and diversification," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    28. John M. Griffin & Patrick J. Kelly & Federico Nardari, 2010. "Do Market Efficiency Measures Yield Correct Inferences? A Comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3225-3277, August.
    29. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2013. "International Stock Return Predictability: What Is the Role of the United States?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1633-1662, August.
    30. Lee, Charles M.C. & Ng, David T.C., 2002. "Corruption and International Valuation: Does Virtue Pay?," Working Papers 127288, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    31. Albuquerque, Rui & Ramadorai, Tarun & Watugala, Sumudu W., 2015. "Trade credit and cross-country predictable firm returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 592-613.
    32. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    33. Timothy C. Johnson, 2004. "Forecast Dispersion and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 1957-1978, October.
    34. Jain, Archana & Jain, Pankaj K. & McInish, Thomas H. & McKenzie, Michael, 2013. "Worldwide reach of short selling regulations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 177-197.
    35. repec:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:1355-1401. is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    37. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    38. Turan G. Bali & Lin Peng & Yannan Shen & Yi Tang, 2014. "Liquidity Shocks and Stock Market Reactions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1434-1485.
    39. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    40. Robert M. Bushman & Joseph D. Piotroski & Abbie J. Smith, 2004. "What Determines Corporate Transparency?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 207-252, May.
    41. Kewei Hou & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2005. "Market Frictions, Price Delay, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 981-1020.
    42. Kingsley Y. L. Fong & Craig W. Holden & Charles A. Trzcinka, 2017. "What Are the Best Liquidity Proxies for Global Research?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1355-1401.
    43. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    44. Bae, Kee-Hong & Ozoguz, Arzu & Tan, Hongping & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2012. "Do foreigners facilitate information transmission in emerging markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 209-227.
    45. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    46. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.
    47. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    48. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    49. Doidge, Craig & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, René M., 2013. "The U.S. left behind? Financial globalization and the rise of IPOs outside the U.S," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 546-573.
    50. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2015. "Can governance quality predict stock market returns? New global evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 367-380.
    51. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian T. & Siegel, Stephan, 2016. "Political risk and international valuation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-23.
    52. Rapach, David E. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C. & Zhou, Guofu, 2016. "Short interest and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 46-65.
    53. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    54. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2012. "International Shock Transmission after the Lehman Brothers Collapse: Evidence from Syndicated Lending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 231-237, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Jun Wen & Umar Farooq & Suhaib Anagreh & Mosab I. Tabash, 2022. "Quality of governance and corporate real investment: Assessing the impact of foreign aid," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1115-1134, October.
    3. Liu, Guangqiang & Liu, Boyang, 2023. "How digital technology improves the high-quality development of enterprises and capital markets: A liquidity perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hollstein, Fabian & Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "International tail risk and World Fear," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 244-259.
    2. Atanasov, Victoria, 2018. "World output gap and global stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 181-197.
    3. David Haab & Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2017. "Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks," Working Papers 2017-14, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
    5. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    6. Ma, Rui & Anderson, Hamish D. & Marshall, Ben R., 2019. "Risk perceptions and international stock market liquidity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 94-116.
    7. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Melgar, Natalia, 2018. "Country transparency and the global transmission of financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 56-72.
    8. Rapach, David E. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C. & Zhou, Guofu, 2016. "Short interest and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 46-65.
    9. Huang, Dashan & Li, Jiangyuan & Wang, Liyao & Zhou, Guofu, 2020. "Time series momentum: Is it there?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 774-794.
    10. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2021. "Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
    12. Chen, Yong & Eaton, Gregory W. & Paye, Bradley S., 2018. "Micro(structure) before macro? The predictive power of aggregate illiquidity for stock returns and economic activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 48-73.
    13. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    14. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier & Kim, Jae, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on Prediction Intervals," MPRA Paper 70143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Forecasting dividend growth: The role of adjusted earnings yield," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    16. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    17. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    18. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2022. "Stock return predictability: Evaluation based on interval forecasts," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 363-385, April.
    19. Yiuman Tse, 2018. "Return predictability and contrarian profits of international index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 788-803, July.
    20. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Governance; Return predictability; Information diffusion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:122:y:2021:i:c:s037842662030248x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.