IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v115y2015i3p592-613.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade credit and cross-country predictable firm returns

Author

Listed:
  • Albuquerque, Rui
  • Ramadorai, Tarun
  • Watugala, Sumudu W.

Abstract

We investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit located in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Albuquerque, Rui & Ramadorai, Tarun & Watugala, Sumudu W., 2015. "Trade credit and cross-country predictable firm returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 592-613.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:115:y:2015:i:3:p:592-613
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.10.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X14002293
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.10.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2007. "Do industries lead stock markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 367-396, February.
    2. Söhnke M. Bartram & John M. Griffin & Tae-Hoon Lim & David T. Ng, 2015. "How Important Are Foreign Ownership Linkages for International Stock Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3036-3072.
    3. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kim, Yungsan, 2005. "Trade Credit and the Effect of Macro-Financial Shocks: Evidence from U.S. Panel Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 897-925, December.
    4. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1997. "Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 661-691.
    5. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. "International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-124, March.
    6. Lior Menzly & Oguzhan Ozbas, 2010. "Market Segmentation and Cross‐predictability of Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1555-1580, August.
    7. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    8. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. "Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-986, July.
    9. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    10. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    11. Nilsen, Jeffrey H, 2002. "Trade Credit and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 226-253, February.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mian, Shehzad L & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1992. "Accounts Receivable Management Policy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 169-200, March.
    14. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    17. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    18. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    19. Love, Inessa & Preve, Lorenzo A. & Sarria-Allende, Virginia, 2007. "Trade credit and bank credit: Evidence from recent financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 453-469, February.
    20. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    21. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, February.
    22. Raymond Fisman & Inessa Love, 2003. "Trade Credit, Financial Intermediary Development, and Industry Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 353-374, February.
    23. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    24. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini, 2008. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1977-2011, August.
    25. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2011. "What Segments Equity Markets?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3841-3890.
    26. Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    28. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 937-971, April.
    29. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    30. Smith, Janet Kiholm, 1987. "Trade Credit and Informational Asymmetry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 863-872, September.
    31. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    32. Shehzad L. Mian & Clifford W. Smith, 1994. "Extending Trade Credit And Financing Receivables," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(1), pages 75-84, March.
    33. Schwartz, Robert A., 1974. "An Economic Model of Trade Credit," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 643-657, September.
    34. Brennan, Michael J & Maksimovic, Vojislav & Zechner, Josef, 1988. " Vendor Financing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1127-1141, December.
    35. Kewei Hou & G. Andrew Karolyi & Bong-Chan Kho, 2011. "What Factors Drive Global Stock Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2527-2574.
    36. Biais, Bruno & Gollier, Christian, 1997. "Trade Credit and Credit Rationing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 903-937.
    37. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2001. "Firms as financial intermediaries - evidence from trade credit data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2696, The World Bank.
    38. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2009. "Information, Trading Volume, and International Stock Return Comovements: Evidence from Cross-Listed Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 953-986, August.
    39. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
    40. Emery, Gary W., 1984. "A Pure Financial Explanation for Trade Credit," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 271-285, September.
    41. Benjamin S. Wilner, 2000. "The Exploitation of Relationships in Financial Distress: The Case of Trade Credit," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 153-178, February.
    42. Gehrig, Thomas, 1993. " An Information Based Explanation of the Domestic Bias in International Equity Investment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 97-109.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asif Saeed & Qasim Zureigat, 2020. "Corporate Social Responsibility, Trade Credit and Financial Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Zareei, Abalfazl, 2021. "Cross-momentum: Tracking idiosyncratic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 177-199.
    3. Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan) & Du, Huancheng & Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher, 2022. "Ripples into waves: Trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 217-238.
    4. Morrison, Alan & Vasios, Michalis & Wilson, Mungo & Zikes, Filip, 2017. "Identifying contagion in a banking network," Bank of England working papers 642, Bank of England.
    5. Nicoleta Barbuta-Misu & Fitim Deari, 2016. "Determinants of Trade Credit: A Preliminary Analysis on Construction Sector," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 306-314.
    6. Gyimah, Daniel & Machokoto, Michael & Sikochi, Anywhere (Siko), 2020. "Peer influence on trade credit," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Machokoto, Michael & Chipeta, Chimwemwe & Ibeji, Ngozi, 2021. "The institutional determinants of peer effects on corporate cash holdings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Ma, Xiaofang & Wang, Wenming & Wu, Jiangang & Zhang, Wenlan, 2020. "Corporate customer concentration and stock price crash risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Li Huang & Qianwei Ying & Shanye Yang & Hazrat Hassan, 2019. "Trade Credit Financing and Sustainable Growth of Firms: Empirical Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Abdul-Rahman Khokhar, 2019. "Working Capital Investment: A Comparative Study - Canada Versus the United States," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 23(1-2), pages 65-102, March - J.
    11. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2021. "Country governance and international equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Qian Qian & Yang Yang & Zong-Fang Zhou, 2019. "Research on Trade Credit Spreading and Credit Risk within the Supply Chain," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 389-411, January.
    13. Shi, Jinyan & Liu, Xu & Li, Yanxi & Yu, Conghui & Han, Yushan, 2022. "Does supply chain network centrality affect stock price crash risk? Evidence from Chinese listed manufacturing companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Albuquerque, Rui & Ramadorai, Tarun & Watugala, Sumudu, 2011. "Trade Credit and International Return Comovement," CEPR Discussion Papers 8222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mariarosaria Agostino & Francesco Trivieri, 2014. "Does trade credit play a signalling role? Some evidence from SMEs microdata," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 131-151, January.
    3. Altunok, Fatih & Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2020. "The trade credit channel and monetary policy transmission: Empirical evidence from U.S. panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 226-250.
    4. Goto, Shingo & Xiao, Gang & Xu, Yan, 2015. "As told by the supplier: Trade credit and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 296-309.
    5. Alvaro Garcia-Marin & Santiago Justel & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2019. "Trade Credit, Markups, and Relationships," CESifo Working Paper Series 7600, CESifo.
    6. El Ghoul, Sadok & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2016. "Trade credit provision and national culture," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 475-501.
    7. Tsuruta, Daisuke & Uchida, Hirofumi, 2019. "The real driver of trade credit," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Alvaro Garcia-Marin & Santiago Justel & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2019. "Trade Credit and Markups," 2019 Meeting Papers 254, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. María-José Palacín-Sánchez & Francisco-Javier Canto-Cuevas & Filippo di-Pietro, 2019. "Trade credit versus bank credit: a simultaneous analysis in European SMEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1079-1096, December.
    10. Cunningham, Rose, 2005. "Trade Credit and Credit Rationing in Canadian Firms," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2005036e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    11. Abdulla, Yomna & Dang, Viet Anh & Khurshed, Arif, 2020. "Suppliers' listing status and trade credit provision," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    12. Jiao Wang & Lima Zhao & Arnd Huchzermeier, 2021. "Operations‐Finance Interface in Risk Management: Research Evolution and Opportunities," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(2), pages 355-389, February.
    13. D'Mello, Ranjan & Toscano, Francesca, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and short-term financing: The case of trade credit," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Leora Klapper & Luc Laeven & Raghuram Rajan, 2012. "Trade Credit Contracts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 838-867.
    15. Cristina Martínez-Sola & Pedro J. García-Teruel & Pedro Martínez-Solano, 2013. "Trade credit policy and firm value," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 791-808, September.
    16. Belinda L. Del Gaudio & Gabriele Sampagnaro & Claudio Porzio & Vincenzo Verdoliva, 2022. "The signaling role of trade credit in bank lending decisions: Evidence from small and medium‐sized enterprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1-2), pages 327-354, January.
    17. Abdulla, Yomna & Dang, Viet Anh & Khurshed, Arif, 2017. "Stock market listing and the use of trade credit: Evidence from public and private firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 391-410.
    18. Bougheas, Spiros & Mateut, Simona & Mizen, Paul, 2009. "Corporate trade credit and inventories: New evidence of a trade-off from accounts payable and receivable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 300-307, February.
    19. Couppey-Soubeyran Jézabel & Héricourt Jérôme, 2013. "The Impact of Financial Development on the Relationship between Trade Credit, Bank Credit, and Firm Characteristics: A Study on Firm-Level Data from Six MENA Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 197-239, August.
    20. Vicente Cuñat, 2007. "Trade Credit: Suppliers as Debt Collectors and Insurance Providers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 491-527.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International equity markets; Trade credit; Information asymmetry; Customer–supplier relations; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:115:y:2015:i:3:p:592-613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.