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Trade Credit and Cross-country Predictable Firm Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Albuquerque

    (Catolica-Lisbon School of Business and Economics, Boston University)

  • Tarun Ramadorai

    (Said Business School, Oxford University)

  • Sumudu W. Watugala

    (Office of Financial Research)

Abstract

We investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit located in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Albuquerque & Tarun Ramadorai & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2014. "Trade Credit and Cross-country Predictable Firm Returns," Staff Discussion Papers 14-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:ofr:discus:14-04
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    3. Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan) & Du, Huancheng & Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher, 2022. "Ripples into waves: Trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 217-238.
    4. Morrison, Alan & Vasios, Michalis & Wilson, Mungo & Zikes, Filip, 2017. "Identifying contagion in a banking network," Bank of England working papers 642, Bank of England.
    5. Nicoleta Barbuta-Misu & Fitim Deari, 2016. "Determinants of Trade Credit: A Preliminary Analysis on Construction Sector," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 306-314.
    6. Gyimah, Daniel & Machokoto, Michael & Sikochi, Anywhere (Siko), 2020. "Peer influence on trade credit," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Machokoto, Michael & Chipeta, Chimwemwe & Ibeji, Ngozi, 2021. "The institutional determinants of peer effects on corporate cash holdings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Ma, Xiaofang & Wang, Wenming & Wu, Jiangang & Zhang, Wenlan, 2020. "Corporate customer concentration and stock price crash risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Li Huang & Qianwei Ying & Shanye Yang & Hazrat Hassan, 2019. "Trade Credit Financing and Sustainable Growth of Firms: Empirical Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Wen Chen & Mozaffar Khan & Leonid Kogan & George Serafeim, 2021. "Cross‐firm return predictability and accounting quality," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-2), pages 70-101, January.
    11. Abdul-Rahman Khokhar, 2019. "Working Capital Investment: A Comparative Study - Canada Versus the United States," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 23(1-2), pages 65-102, March - J.
    12. Sumit Agarwal & Wenlan Qian & Xin Zou, 2021. "Disaggregated Sales and Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7167-7183, November.
    13. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2021. "Country governance and international equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Qian Qian & Yang Yang & Zong-Fang Zhou, 2019. "Research on Trade Credit Spreading and Credit Risk within the Supply Chain," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 389-411, January.
    15. Senarathne, Chamil W., . "The Information Flow Interpretation of Margin Debt Value Data: Evidence from New York Stock Exchange," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 26(1).
    16. Wang, Yibo & Liu, Bai & Chan, Hing Kai & Zhang, Tiantian, 2023. "Who pays buyers for not disclosing supplier lists? Unlocking the relationship between supply chain transparency and trade credit," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(PB).
    17. Shi, Jinyan & Liu, Xu & Li, Yanxi & Yu, Conghui & Han, Yushan, 2022. "Does supply chain network centrality affect stock price crash risk? Evidence from Chinese listed manufacturing companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Wahyu Jatmiko & M. Shahid Ebrahim & Abdullah Iqbal & Rafal M. Wojakowski, 2023. "Can trade credit rejuvenate Islamic banking?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 111-146, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international equity markets; trade credit; information asymmetry; customer-supplier relations; predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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