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Trade Credit and Cross-country Predictable Firm Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Albuquerque

    (Catolica-Lisbon School of Business and Economics, Boston University)

  • Tarun Ramadorai

    (Said Business School, Oxford University)

  • Sumudu W. Watugala

    (Office of Financial Research)

Abstract

We investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit located in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Albuquerque & Tarun Ramadorai & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2014. "Trade Credit and Cross-country Predictable Firm Returns," Staff Discussion Papers 14-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:ofr:discus:14-04
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    2. Zhang, Jiping & Mo, Haimiao & Hu, Zhijian & Zhang, Tianjiao, 2024. "The effect of stability and concentration of upstream and downstream relationships of focal firms on two-level trade credit," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    3. Li Huang & Qianwei Ying & Shanye Yang & Hazrat Hassan, 2019. "Trade Credit Financing and Sustainable Growth of Firms: Empirical Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Wang, Meng & Goodell, John W. & Huang, Wei & Jiang, Ying, 2023. "Trade credit provision and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Asif Saeed & Qasim Zureigat, 2020. "Corporate Social Responsibility, Trade Credit and Financial Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Wen Chen & Mozaffar Khan & Leonid Kogan & George Serafeim, 2021. "Cross‐firm return predictability and accounting quality," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-2), pages 70-101, January.
    7. Zareei, Abalfazl, 2021. "Cross-momentum: Tracking idiosyncratic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 177-199.
    8. Abdul-Rahman Khokhar, 2019. "Working Capital Investment: A Comparative Study - Canada Versus the United States," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 23(1-2), pages 65-102, March - J.
    9. Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan) & Du, Huancheng & Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher, 2022. "Ripples into waves: Trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 217-238.
    10. Sumit Agarwal & Wenlan Qian & Xin Zou, 2021. "Disaggregated Sales and Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7167-7183, November.
    11. Muhammad Jawad & Munazza Naz, 2025. "Elasticity of ESSM stock volatility: an analysis of the collapse of U.S., European, and Chinese markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
    12. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2021. "Country governance and international equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Alan Morrison & Michalis Vasios & Mungo Wilson & Filip Zikes, 2017. "Identifying contagion in a banking network," Bank of England working papers 642, Bank of England.
    14. Qian Qian & Yang Yang & Zong-Fang Zhou, 2019. "Research on Trade Credit Spreading and Credit Risk within the Supply Chain," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 389-411, January.
    15. Song, Gaoya & Li, Quan, 2025. "Big data in tax enforcement and trade credit: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Nicoleta Barbuta-Misu & Fitim Deari, 2016. "Determinants of Trade Credit: A Preliminary Analysis on Construction Sector," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 306-314.
    17. Song, Gaoya & Li, Quan, 2024. "Mixed ownership reform and trade credit: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    18. Senarathne, Chamil W., . "The Information Flow Interpretation of Margin Debt Value Data: Evidence from New York Stock Exchange," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 26(01).
    19. Wang, Yibo & Liu, Bai & Chan, Hing Kai & Zhang, Tiantian, 2023. "Who pays buyers for not disclosing supplier lists? Unlocking the relationship between supply chain transparency and trade credit," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(PB).
    20. Shi, Jinyan & Liu, Xu & Li, Yanxi & Yu, Conghui & Han, Yushan, 2022. "Does supply chain network centrality affect stock price crash risk? Evidence from Chinese listed manufacturing companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    21. Gyimah, Daniel & Machokoto, Michael & Sikochi, Anywhere (Siko), 2020. "Peer influence on trade credit," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    22. Machokoto, Michael & Chipeta, Chimwemwe & Ibeji, Ngozi, 2021. "The institutional determinants of peer effects on corporate cash holdings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    23. Xiao, Yaqing & Yan, Hongjun & Zhang, Jinfan, 2024. "Global and local information efficiency: An examination of samuelson's dictum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    24. Wahyu Jatmiko & M. Shahid Ebrahim & Abdullah Iqbal & Rafal M. Wojakowski, 2023. "Can trade credit rejuvenate Islamic banking?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 111-146, January.
    25. Ma, Xiaofang & Wang, Wenming & Wu, Jiangang & Zhang, Wenlan, 2020. "Corporate customer concentration and stock price crash risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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