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Does official media sentiment matter for the stock market? Evidence from China

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  • Xu, Zhiwei
  • Hua, Xia
  • Zhang, Teng

Abstract

We develop a novel official media sentiment index (NegGovOp) for China’ stock market using textual analysis combined with BERT. We find that NegGovOp predicts market return reversals. The return-reversal pattern is concentrated among difficult-to-arbitrage stocks, during recession period and the trading days which are not directly following weekends or holidays. We further find that official media sentiment primarily affects the trading activities of retail investors and significantly predicts market trading volume, market volatility and investor sentiment. Our findings are in line with the behavioral model that official media sentiment contributes to shaping irrational investor sentiment and resulting in temporary mispricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Zhiwei & Hua, Xia & Zhang, Teng, 2025. "Does official media sentiment matter for the stock market? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:64:y:2025:i:c:s1566014124001298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101234
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Official media sentiment; China's stock market; Investor sentiment; Textual analysis; BERT;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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