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Does Investor Sentiment Predict the Near‐Term Returns of the Chinese Stock Market?

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  • Muhammad A. Cheema
  • Yimei Man
  • Kenneth R. Szulczyk

Abstract

Recent evidence on the relationship between investor sentiment and subsequent monthly market returns in China shows that investor sentiment is a reliable momentum predictor since an increase (decrease) in investor sentiment leads to higher (lower) future returns. However, we suggest that momentum predictability of investor sentiment originates from the boom and bust period of 2006–2008 (the bubble period hereafter). The bubble period is characterized by several months of sustained optimism followed by several months of sustained pessimism, with the market consequently earning high (low) returns following high (low) sentiment months. Therefore, we find a strong positive association between investor sentiment and subsequent market returns during the bubble period. However, investor sentiment has a negligible impact on subsequent monthly market returns once we exclude the bubble period.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad A. Cheema & Yimei Man & Kenneth R. Szulczyk, 2020. "Does Investor Sentiment Predict the Near‐Term Returns of the Chinese Stock Market?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 225-233, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:20:y:2020:i:1:p:225-233
    DOI: 10.1111/irfi.12202
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad A. Cheema & Gilbert V. Nartea & Yimei Man, 2020. "Maxing Out in China: Optimism or Attention?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 961-971, December.
    2. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Ngoc Bao Vuong & Yoshihisa Suzuki, 2022. "The Moderating Effect of Market-Specific Factors on the Return Predictability of Investor Sentiment," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, July.
    4. Yafeng Qin & Guoyao Pan & Min Bai, 2020. "Improving market timing of time series momentum in the Chinese stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(43), pages 4711-4725, September.
    5. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
    6. Rafael Barreiros Porto & Gordon Robert Foxall, 2022. "The marketing‐finance interface and national well‐being: An operant behavioral economics analysis," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2941-2954, October.
    7. Park, Heungju & Sohn, Sungbin, 2021. "Flight to quality and implicit guarantee: Evidence from Chinese trust products," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 399-419.
    8. Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik & Ondrej Badura, 2021. "Does Sentiment Affect Stock Returns? A Meta-analysis Across Survey-based Measures," Working Papers 2021/10, Czech National Bank.
    9. Neszveda, Gábor & Till, Gábor & Timár, Barnabás & Varga, Marcell, 2022. "Is short-term reversal driven by liquidity provision in emerging markets? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Md Qamar Azam & Nazia Iqbal Hashmi & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Md Shabbir Alam & Mirza Allim Baig, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Overconfidence Bias: The Case of Cyclical and Defensive Sectors," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, March.
    11. Yongan Xu & Jianqiong Wang & Zhonglu Chen & Chao Liang, 2023. "Sentiment indices and stock returns: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1063-1080, January.
    12. Rameeza Andleeb & Arshad Hassan, 2023. "Impact of Investor Sentiment on Contemporaneous and Future Equity Returns in Emerging Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, August.
    13. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2021. "Stock Market’s responses to intraday investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Yang Gao & Chengjie Zhao & Bianxia Sun & Wandi Zhao, 2022. "Effects of investor sentiment on stock volatility: new evidences from multi-source data in China’s green stock markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    15. Azilawati Banchit & Sazali Abidin & Sophyafadeth Lim & Fareiny Morni, 2020. "Investor Sentiment, Portfolio Returns, and Macroeconomic Variables," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, October.

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