A New Core Inflation Indicator for Turkey (Turkiye Ekonomisi Icin Yeni Bir Cekirdek Enflasyon Gostergesi)
This paper has two main objectives. The first objective is to propose a new indicator of core inflation, which is obtained by cleaning month on month relative price fluctuations from overall price changes and idiosyncratic dynamics. We use a factor model with the subcomponents of CPI inflation to extract this new core indicator. The second objective is to evaluate the performance of this new indicator and two widely used core indicators for Turkey, H and I, by the help of four criteria designed to assess the informativeness and the predictive power of these series for the analysis of overall inflation. The results suggest that the new indicator, Fcore, is a good measure of core inflation and a useful tool for policy analysis. Moreover, the core indicator H is a more informative measure of core inflation compared to core indicator I.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clements, Kenneth W & Izan, H Y, 1987.
"The Measurement of Inflation: A Stochastic Approach,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 5(3), pages 339-50, July.
- K.W. Clements & H.Y. Izan, 1984. "The Measurement of Inflation: a Stochastic Approach," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 84-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- K.W. Clements & H.Y. Izan, 1987. "The Measurement of Inflation: A stochastic approach," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 87-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999.
"Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues,"
Working Paper Series
0005, European Central Bank.
- Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
- Mark A. Wynne, 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Papers 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Todd E. Clark, 2001. "Comparing measures of core inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-31.
- Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2005.
"A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 539-60, June.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 183-206.
- John Geweke & Guofu Zhou, 1996.
"Measuring the Pricing Error of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory,"
CEMA Working Papers
276, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Geweke, John & Zhou, Guofu, 1996. "Measuring the Pricing Error of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 557-87.
- John Geweke & Guofu Zhou, 1995. "Measuring the pricing error of the arbitrage pricing theory," Staff Report 189, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"The consumer price index as a measure of inflation,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozlem Ekmekciler Ramalho Rocha)or (Ilker Cakar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.