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Macro-Financial Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • John Cotter

    (Graduate School of Business, University College Dublin)

  • Mark Hallam

    (Essex Business School, University of Essex)

  • Kamil Yilmaz

    (Department of Economics, Koç University)

Abstract

We analyse spillovers between the real and financial sides of the US economy allowing for differences in sampling frequency between financial and macroeconomic data. We find that financial markets are typically net transmitters of shocks to the real side of the economy, particularly during turbulent market conditions. Our macro-financial spillover measures are found to have significant predictive ability for future US macroeconomic conditions in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting environments. Furthermore, the predictive ability of our macro-financial measures frequently exceeds that of purely financial systemic risk measures previously employed in the literature for the same task.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cotter & Mark Hallam & Kamil Yilmaz, 2020. "Macro-Financial Spillovers," Working Papers 202005, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gu, Qinen & Li, Shaofang & Tian, Sihua & Wang, Yuyouting, 2023. "Climate, geopolitical, and energy market risk interconnectedness: Evidence from a new climate risk index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    3. Uluceviz, Erhan & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2021. "Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Sánchez García, Javier & Cruz Rambaud, Salvador, 2023. "Inflation and systemic risk: A network econometric model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2023. "The term effect of financial cycle variables on GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spillovers; connectedness; macro-financial; mixed-frequency; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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