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Macro-financial spillovers

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  • Cotter, John
  • Hallam, Mark
  • Yilmaz, Kamil

Abstract

We analyse spillovers between the real and financial sides of the US economy, and between those in the US and other advanced economies. The approach developed allows for differences in sampling frequency between financial and macroeconomic data. We find that financial markets are typically net transmitters of shocks to the real side of the economy, particularly during turbulent market conditions. This result holds both for domestic US macro-financial spillovers, and also those between the US and other advanced economies. Our macro-financial spillover measures are found to have significant predictive ability for future macroeconomic conditions in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting environments. Furthermore, the predictive ability frequently of our macro-financial measures frequently exceeds that of purely financial systemic risk measures previously employed in the literature for the same task.

Suggested Citation

  • Cotter, John & Hallam, Mark & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2023. "Macro-financial spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:133:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623000256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102824
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    Cited by:

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    3. Sánchez García, Javier & Cruz Rambaud, Salvador, 2023. "Inflation and systemic risk: A network econometric model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spillovers; Connectedness; Macro-financial; Mixed-frequency; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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