IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v47y2022ipbs1544612322000824.html

Income statement leverage and expected stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Akron, Sagi
  • Taussig, Roi D.

Abstract

In light of the ongoing debate regarding the classic financial-leverage measures' stock returns predictability power, this study posits a new financial leverage measure –namely, income statement leverage (ISL). Unlike market leverage (ML) and book leverage (BL) measures, ISL is not determined by market prices, thereby alleviating concerns regarding leverage's spurious return predictability, due to a "fad" in prices, which eventually degenerates. We show that ISL’s returns predictability remains statistically and economically significant, while simultaneously controlling for B/M, market-capitalization (Size), and past performance. Furthermore, while ML and BL returns predictability becomes insignificant or contradicts the tradeoff theory, ISL remains significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Akron, Sagi & Taussig, Roi D., 2022. "Income statement leverage and expected stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pb:s1544612322000824
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.102766
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322000824
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102766?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Farhad Shahveisi & Farshid Khairollahi & Mohammad Alipour, 2017. "Does ownership structure matter for corporate intellectual capital performance? An empirical test in the Iranian context," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(1), pages 67-91, April.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Akanni, Lateef & Raheem, Ibrahim, 2020. "The COVID-19 global fear index and the predictability of commodity price returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    4. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    6. Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul & Sarin, Atulya, 2009. "Accounting-based versus market-based cross-sectional models of CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 719-730, April.
    7. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1973. "A State-Preference Model of Optimal Financial Leverage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 911-922, September.
    8. Tashman, Leonard J., 2000. "Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: an analysis and review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 437-450.
    9. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    11. C. Piga & M. Vivarelli, 2003. "Sample selection in estimating the determinants of cooperative R&D," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 243-246.
    12. Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul, 2009. "Hedging credit: Equity liquidity matters," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, January.
    13. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    14. Ning Liu & Wei Xu, 2017. "Stock liquidity on China NEEQ exchange," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 255-275, August.
    15. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    16. Chang, Kai & Ding, Jiehuan & Lou, Qichun & Li, Zesheng & Yang, Jiahui, 2021. "The impact of capital leverage on green firms’ investment: New evidence regarding the size and age effects of Chinese green industries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dunbar, Kwamie, 2021. "Pricing the hedging factor in the cross-section of stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Lorenzo Garlappi & Zhongzhi Song, 2017. "Can Investment Shocks Explain the Cross Section of Equity Returns?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3829-3848, November.
    3. Li, Tangrong & Sun, Xuchu, 2023. "Predicting stock market returns using aggregate credit risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1087-1103.
    4. Huynh, Nhan, 2023. "Unemployment beta and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
    6. Iqbal, Muhammad Sabeeh & Salih, Aslihan & Akdeniz, Levent, 2023. "Institutions and the book-to-market effect: The role of investment horizon," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 140-153.
    7. Zhi Da & Jian Hua & Tim Chih-Ching Hung & Lin Peng, 2025. "Market Returns and a Tale of Two Types of Attention," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(12), pages 10505-10537, December.
    8. Yu Hou, 2015. "The role of diversification in the pricing of accruals quality," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1059-1092, September.
    9. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Downside Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Ali, Ashiq & Hwang, Lee-Seok & Trombley, Mark A., 2003. "Arbitrage risk and the book-to-market anomaly," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 355-373, August.
    11. Onishchenko, Olena & Zhao, Jing & Kongahawatte, Sampath & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2024. "Investor heterogeneity and anchoring-induced momentum," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    12. Su, Yuandong & Lu, Xinjie & Zeng, Qing & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Good air quality and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li & Qin Li & Siew Hong Teoh & Kevin Tseng, 2022. "Valuation of New Trademarks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 257-279, January.
    14. Wang, Weimin & (Frank) Wang, Xu, 2014. "Predicting earnings in a poor information environment," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 46-58.
    15. Mamdouh Medhat & Maik Schmeling, 2022. "Short-term Momentum," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1480-1526.
    16. Jeong, Jin-Gyu & Byun, Suk-Joon & Kim, Donghoon, 2026. "Forecasting returns using image-based convolutional neural networks: Evidence from Korea," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    18. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Cohen, Lauren & Diether, Karl & Malloy, Christopher, 2013. "Legislating stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 574-595.
    20. Patrick Bielstein, 2018. "International asset allocation using the market implied cost of capital," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(1), pages 17-51, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pb:s1544612322000824. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.