IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rug/rugwps/03-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and human capital formation : theory and panel data evidence

Author

Listed:
  • F. HEYLEN
  • A. SCHOLLAERT
  • G. EVERAERT
  • L. POZZI

Abstract

Existing monetary growth theories predict either negative or neutral effects from inflation on human capital. In this paper we develop a simple alternative model, which can generate positive effects. Our empirical analysis for 93 countries in 1975-1995 tends to confirm these positive effects. Using recent GMM panel data procedures, we find that rising inflation basically stimulates human capital. A robust negative effect can be observed only at extremely high inflation rates. A representative threshold may be 100%. For inflation rates below 15%, the effect of rising inflation seems insignificant. The latter result can also be rationalized from our model.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Heylen & A. Schollaert & G. Everaert & L. Pozzi, 2003. "Inflation and human capital formation : theory and panel data evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/174, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:03/174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_03_174.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2001. "Does Human Capital Matter for Growth in OECD Countries?: Evidence from Pooled Mean-Group Estimates," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 282, OECD Publishing.
    3. Jonathan Temple, 2003. "Growth effects of education and social capital in the OECD countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 57-101.
    4. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
    5. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    6. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Inflation and the great ratios: Long term evidence from the U.S," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-35, February.
    7. Ruth Judson & Athanasios Orphanides, 1999. "Inflation, Volatility and Growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 117-138, April.
    8. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "The effects of inflation on economic growth : Lessons from Latin America," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 417-425, April.
    9. Stephen Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2002. "Finite sample inference for GMM estimators in linear panel data models," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    11. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    12. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 126-150, October.
    13. Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788885, September.
    14. Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261, Elsevier.
    15. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Clark, Todd E, 1997. "Cross-country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 70-81, January.
    17. Mino, Kazuo, 1997. "Long-Run Effects of Monetary Expansion in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-655, October.
    18. Engelbrecht, Hans-Jurgen, 1997. "International R&D spillovers, human capital and productivity in OECD economies: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1479-1488, August.
    19. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    20. repec:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:2:p:166-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
    22. Jonathan Temple, 2000. "Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 395-426, September.
    23. Willem H. Buiter & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1995. "Capital Mobility, Fiscal Policy, and Growth under Self-Financing of Human Capital Formation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(s1), pages 163-194, November.
    24. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, April.
    25. Williams, Joseph T, 1979. "Uncertainty and the Accumulation of Human Capital over the Life Cycle," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(4), pages 521-548, October.
    26. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    27. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    28. Feldstein, Martin, 2009. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226241791.
    29. Gomme, Paul, 1993. "Money and growth revisited : Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 51-77, August.
    30. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    31. Gerhard Glomm & B. Ravikumar, 2001. "Human capital accumulation and endogenous public expenditures," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 807-826, August.
    32. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2010. "The effect of inflation on growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(4), pages 697-714, October.
    33. W.H. Buiter & K Kletzer, 1995. "Capital Mobility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0245, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    34. Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K., 1992. "Examining the long-run effect of money on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 359-369.
    35. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    36. English, William B., 1999. "Inflation and financial sector size," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 379-400, December.
    37. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    38. repec:bla:scandj:v:95:y:1993:i:4:p:467-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Mamuneas, Theofanis P. & Savvides, Andreas & Stengos, Thanasis, 2001. "Measures of Human Capital and Nonlinearities in Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 229-254, September.
    40. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    41. Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Domenech, 2001. "Schooling Data, Technological Diffusion, and the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 323-327, May.
    42. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    43. repec:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:1:p:117-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Rosa Capolupo, 2000. "Output Taxation, Human Capital and Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(2), pages 166-183, March.
    45. Peter J. Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Pecorino, Paul, 1995. "Inflation, human capital accumulation and long-run growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 533-542.
    47. Rosa Capolupo, "undated". "Output Taxation, Human Capital and Growth," Working Papers 9711, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    48. Nielsen, Soren Bo & Sorensen, Peter Birch, 1997. "On the optimality of the Nordic system of dual income taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 311-329, February.
    49. Gomme, Paul, 1993. "Money and growth revisited : Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 51-77, August.
    50. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld99-1.
    51. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. D. Van den Poel, 2003. "Predicting Mail-Order Repeat Buying. Which Variables Matter?," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(3), pages 371-404.
    2. Evans, Olaniyi, 2022. "The criticality of institutions and the macroeconomy for education outcomes in Africa," MPRA Paper 118197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Debi Prasad Bal & Devi Prasad Dash & Bibhudutta Subhasish, 2016. "The Effects of Capital Formation on Economic Growth in India: Evidence from ARDL-bound Testing Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1388-1400, December.
    4. Muhammad Azam & Syed Ali Raza, 2016. "Do Workers’ Remittances Boost Human Capital Development?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 123-149.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F. Heylen & L. Pozzi & J. Vandewege, 2004. "Inflation crises, human capital formation and growth," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/260, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Freddy Heylen & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2007. "Crises and human capital accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 1261-1285, November.
    3. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    4. Angel de la Fuente & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 562.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    5. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    6. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    7. ?gel de la Fuente, "undated". "Convergence Across Countries And Regions: Theory And Empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 447.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    8. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 97-127, June.
    9. Angel de la Fuente, 2011. "Human Capital and Productivity," Working Papers 530, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Eliana Baici & Giorgia Casalone, 2005. "Has human capital accounted for regional economic growth in Italy? A panel analysis on the 1980-2001 period," ERSA conference papers ersa05p251, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2008. "The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 607-668, September.
    12. Funk Peter & Kromen Bettina, 2010. "Inflation and Innovation-Driven Growth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-52, August.
    13. Maria Adelaide Duarte & Marta Simões, 2004. "Human capital, mechanisms of technological diffusion and the role of technological shocks in the speed of diffusion. Evidence from a panel of Mediterranean countries," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 20, pages 102-134, December.
    14. Manoel Bittencourt & Reneé Eyden & Monaheng Seleteng, 2015. "Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 411-424, September.
    15. Adele Bergin & Ide Kearney, 2004. "Human Capital, The Labour Market and Productivity Growth in Ireland," Papers WP158, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Aribah Aslam, 2020. "The hotly debate of human capital and economic growth: why institutions may matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1351-1362, August.
    17. Wößmann, Ludger, 2000. "Specifying Human Capital: A Review, Some Extensions, and Development Effects," Kiel Working Papers 1007, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    19. Zhang, Xiaobei & Wang, Xiaojun, 2021. "Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2003. "The Driving Forces of Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence for the OECD Countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 9-56.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Human capital; education; inflation; monetary growth models; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:03/174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nathalie Verhaeghe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.