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Flooded credit markets: physical climate risk and small business lending

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Abstract

We document that European banks charge higher interest rates on loans granted to firms in areas at high risk of flooding. At 6 basis points, the average risk premium is rather small, and does not adequately reflect the deterioration of loan performance in the aftermath of flood episodes, however. Firms in flooded counties are more likely to default on their loans than non-disaster firms. Floods reduce securitised credit in the local markets, suggesting that physical risks associated with climate change are borne within the banking sector.

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  • Barbaglia, Luca & Fatica, Serena & Rho, Caterina, 2023. "Flooded credit markets: physical climate risk and small business lending," Working Papers 2023-14, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202314
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136274
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    Keywords

    climate change; loan default; loan pricing; natural disasters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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